L'avenir etait leur affaire: De quelques essais de prevision demographique au XVIIIème siecle

By the end of the XVIIth century, the ideological foundations of demographic projections would have three major sources: religious optimism, which assumed an indefinite and beneficial growth of population; pre-Malthusian apocalyptism, according to which only powerful physical obstacles could curb excessive demographic growth; and finally a sense of stationarity, of philosophical origin. Thus the history of demographic projections would be linked, on the one hand, to that of cycles and of the Eternal Return, and on the other, to the idea of progress and constant growth. In the VIIIth century, European demographers would continue the lineage of the three pioneers of projections: following Graunt, they would perfect the lifetable; following Vauban, they would try to establish the maximum or optimal population; following Petty, they would take up the calculation of the doubling time of a population. The XVIIth century would see the birth of the calculation of probabilities, and the XVIIIth the development of the depopulation debate, which would provide the most appropriate setting for demographic projections. In the Age of Enlightenment, scholars would inevitably meet with difficulties in freeing themselves of all ideological presuppositions, but, in spite of their limited methodology, they would have an irresistible impact on scientific progress. ‘Révélez les choses futures, et nous reconnaîtrons que vous êtes des dieux’. Isaïe, 41, 23 ‘Ne utile quidem est scire quid futurum sit. Miserum est enim nihil proficientur angi’. [‘On ne gagne rien à connaître l'avenir; et c'est misère que de se tourmenter sans profit’.] Cicéron,De Natura Deorum, III, 6     

Weighing Health Benefit and Health Risk Information when Consuming Sport-Caught Fish

Fish consumers may incur benefits and risks from eating fish. Health advisories issued by states, tribes, and other entities typically include advice about how to limit fish consumption or change other behaviors (e.g., fish cleaning or cooking) to reduce health risks from exposure to contaminants. Eating fish, however, may provide health benefits. Risk communicators and fish consumers have suggested the importance of including risk comparison information, as well as health risk-benefit comparisons in health advisory communications. To improve understanding about how anglers fishing in waters affected by health advisories may respond to such risk-risk or risk-benefit information, we surveyed Lake Ontario (NY, USA) anglers. We interviewed by telephone 4,750 anglers, 2,593 of which had fished Lake Ontario in the past 12 months and were sent a detailed mail questionnaire (1,245 responded). We posed questions varying the magnitude of health risks and health benefits to be gained by fish consumption, and varied the population affected by these risks and benefits (anglers, children, women of childbearing age, and unborn children). Respondents were influenced by health benefit and health risk information. When risks were high, most respondents would eat less fish regardless of the benefit level. When risks were low, the magnitude of change in fish consumption was related to level of benefit. Responses differed depending on the question wording order, that is, whether "risks" were posed before "benefits." For a given risk-benefit level, respondents would give different advice to women of childbearing age versus children, with more conservative advice (eat less fish) provided to women of childbearing age. Respondents appeared to be influenced more strongly by risk-risk comparisons (e.g., risks from other foods vs. risks from fish) than by risk-benefit comparisons (e.g., risks from fish vs. benefits from fish). Risk analysts and risk communicators should improve efforts to include risk-risk and risk-benefit comparisons in communication efforts, and to clarify to whom the health risks and benefits from fish consumption may accrue.     

Predictors of maternal support: the point of view of adolescent victims of sexual abuse and their mothers

Maternal support received by sexual abuse victims is considered a key factor in coping with the aftermath of abuse. The present study looked at four groups of potential predictors of maternal support: mothers' psychosocial characteristics, abuse characteristics, victim's characteristics, and disclosure characteristics. A total of 120 adolescents aged 12 to 17 years and their mothers, who were recruited from Child Protective Services, completed questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Multiple regression analyses performed separately on mother and child data sets revealed five significant predictors of maternal support in each analysis, four of which were common to both. The discussion underscores the importance of taking into account both the mother's and the victim's perceptions regarding psychological adjustment and family environment.     

The development of generic concepts in qualitative research through cumulative application

Because of their close contact with the actual flow of human group life, qualitative research projects frequently have as a bonus the development of insightful concepts of generic quality that catch some essence of social interaction and/or structural conditions. Yet little attention has been paid to the way these concepts are modified and strengthenedover a series of projects. The lack of regard for this methodological issue may lead to the false impression that qualitative research is not cumulative. In this paper, I urge qualitative sociologists to be aware of cumulative concept development as a major methodological tool, and to demonstrate how concepts derived from one research project are extended and modified in subsequent projects. Additionally, I show how this approach aids in both illuminating aspects of a given research context, while at the same time drawing attention to hitherto unnoted relationships among concepts. In this way, more systematic strategies for developing generic concepts and cumulative understanding of human group life through qualitative research is possible.An earlier version of this paper was presented at The Conference on Qualitative Research: An Ethnographic/Interactionist Perspective, University of Waterloo, Ontario Canada, May 15–17, 1985. I am grateful to Shulamit Reinharz, Ruth Wallace, Stanley Udy, Raymond Hall, and three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions.     

Multiple imputation of a randomly censored covariate improves logistic regression analysis

Randomly censored covariates arise frequently in epidemiologic studies. The most commonly used methods, including complete case and single imputation or substitution, suffer from inefficiency and bias. They make strong parametric assumptions or they consider limit of detection censoring only. We employ multiple imputation, in conjunction with semi-parametric modeling of the censored covariate, to overcome these shortcomings and to facilitate robust estimation. We develop a multiple imputation approach for randomly censored covariates within the framework of a logistic regression model. We use the non-parametric estimate of the covariate distribution or the semi-parametric Cox model estimate in the presence of additional covariates in the model. We evaluate this procedure in simulations, and compare its operating characteristics to those from the complete case analysis and a survival regression approach. We apply the procedures to an Alzheimer's study of the association between amyloid positivity and maternal age of onset of dementia. Multiple imputation achieves lower standard errors and higher power than the complete case approach under heavy and moderate censoring and is comparable under light censoring. The survival regression approach achieves the highest power among all procedures, but does not produce interpretable estimates of association. Multiple imputation offers a favorable alternative to complete case analysis and ad hoc substitution methods in the presence of randomly censored covariates within the framework of logistic regression.     

Global Female Homelessness: A Multi-Faceted Problem

International female homelessness is a difficult subject to address for a number of reasons. First, understanding what defines homelessness poses a problem because female homelessness often takes on a different form than that of male homelessness. Also, homelessness in industrialized countries looks different from that of developing nations where women are more likely to have inadequate housing in temporary shelters or live as squatters. Both of these factors affect the visibility of female homelessness as well as the ability to garner an accurate account of the number of homeless women around the world. Understanding the causes of female homelessness from a global perspective is no less difficult to comprehend because it encompasses so many other multifaceted issues. Women in developing nations face a different set of issues than their counterparts in the industrialized world because of differences in property rights, women’s rights generally, access to education, and access to social services. Finally, immigrant women face a unique set of circumstances of being a foreigner without an adequate social support network.

Lost in the System? Disabled Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Britain

This short paper calls for greater awareness of disabled refugees and asylum seekers living in Britain. Currently, policy makers, many refugee communities and the disability movement fail to consider disabled refugees and asylum seekers, perhaps because they constitute a minority about whom data are rarely available. Focussing on the particular combination of circumstances affecting disabled refugees and asylum seekers, this paper presents recent changes in support arrangements for refugees and asylum seekers. The paper also calls for greater involvement in refugee issues by the disability movement.