Active‐controlled,non‐inferiority trials in oncology: arbitrary limits,infeasible sample sizes and uninformative data analysis. Is there another way?

In oncology, it may not always be possible to evaluate the efficacy of new medicines in placebo-controlled trials. Furthermore, while some newer, biologically targeted anti-cancer treatments may be expected to deliver therapeutic benefit in terms of better tolerability or improved symptom control, they may not always be expected to provide increased efficacy relative to existing therapies. This naturally leads to the use of active-control, non-inferiority trials to evaluate such treatments. In recent evaluations of anti-cancer treatments, the non-inferiority margin has often been defined in terms of demonstrating that at least 50% of the active control effect has been retained by the new drug using methods such as those described by Rothmann et al., Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22:239-264 and Wang and Hung Controlled Clinical Trials 2003; 24:147-155. However, this approach can lead to prohibitively large clinical trials and results in a tendency to dichotomize trial outcome as either 'success' or 'failure' and thus oversimplifies interpretation. With relatively modest modification, these methods can be used to define a stepwise approach to design and analysis. In the first design step, the trial is sized to show indirectly that the new drug would have beaten placebo; in the second analysis step, the probability that the new drug is superior to placebo is assessed and, if sufficiently high in the third and final step, the relative efficacy of the new drug to control is assessed on a continuum of effect retention via an 'effect retention likelihood plot'. This stepwise approach is likely to provide a more complete assessment of relative efficacy so that the value of new treatments can be better judged.     

Jewish Involvement in Shaping American Immigration Policy, 1881–1965: A Historical Review

This paper discusses Jewish involvement in shaping United States immigration policy. In addition to a periodic interest in fostering the immigration of co-religionists as a result of anti-Semitic movements, Jews have an interest in opposing the establishment of ethnically and culturally homogeneous societies in which they reside as minorities. Jews have been at the forefront in supporting movements aimed at altering the ethnic status quo in the United States in favor of immigration of non-European peoples. These activities have involved leadership in Congress, organizing and funding anti-restrictionist groups composed of Jews and gentiles, and originating intellectual movements opposed to evolutionary and biological perspectives in the social sciences.     

世界新秩序和美国对华新政策

本文论述美国１９９７年后对华新政策。文章综述９０年代起美国历届政府的对华的检讨,到１９９７年克林顿政府采取对华新政策,主要是稳定亚洲、中国大陆、台湾,以确保美国在亚洲战略地位和经济利益     

Residential preferences and population distribution

Public opinion research has revealed decided preferences for living in rural areas and small towns, and proponents of population deconcentration have interpreted this as support for their policies. This study, based on a national sample, yielded similar results, but when we introduced the additional possibility of a preference for proximity to a larger city, then the rural areas preferred were found, for most respondents, to be those within the commuting range of a metropolitan central city. Although persons wishing to live near large cities were found to be looking for the same qualities of living sought by those who prefer a more remote location, these findings are not, in general, consistent with the argument that public preferences support strategies of population dispersal into nonmetropolitan areas. Instead they indicate that most of those who wish to live in a different location favor the peripheral metropolitan ring areas that have, in fact, been growing rapidly by in-migration.     

Racial and regional inequalities in school resources relative to their educational outcomes

A definition of inequalities in school inputs weighted according to their importance for educational and outputs is applied to the data from the 1966 Educational Opportunities Survey. The extent and source of inequalities due to race and region are examined. The results are discussed in terms of findings from more restricted definitions of inequalities, and practical policy considerations.     

DIVERSIFICATION GAINS FROM INCLUDING REAL ESTATE IN MIXED-ASSET PORTFOLIOS*

Diversification gains in mean-variance efficiency derived from including real estate in financial asset portfolios are examined. Optimal financial and mixed-asset portfolios were generated by selecting from an investment universe including several distinct financial and real estate media. Deficiencies of previous studies were overcome by employing data with improved representativeness and comparability. The efficient mixed-asset portfolios dominated the efficient financial asset portfolios implying that purely financial asset diversification is inefficient. The optimal mixed-asset portfolio prescribed that approximately two-thirds of the investment wealth be allocated to real estate and one-third to the financial media.     

SCHEDULING PARALLEL PROCESSORS WITH SETUP COSTS AND RESOURCE LIMITATIONS

An integer linear programming model is presented for the scheduling of n products on m identical machines. The particular problem studied is one that occurs frequently in the fiberglass and textile industries. The model incorporates setup costs, lost production costs, and overtime costs. Due to the structure of the model, integer solutions can be obtained by explicitly restricting only a small number of the integer variables. This allows those responsible for scheduling to solve realistically sized problems in an efficient manner. Computational results are provided for a set of generated test problems.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF ADAPTIVE FORECASTING,RE-ESTIMATION,AND RE-IDENTIFICATION USING BOX-JENKINS TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS ON QUARTERLY EARNINGS DATA

This paper assesses the predictive ability of the Box-Jenkins methodology when utilized in an on-going setting. Three procedures are utilized to update the original forecasts generated from the Box-Jenkins models: adaptive forecasting, re-estimation, and re-identification. The results indicate that constant monitoring of the structure and parameters of the time-series models are necessary through time. It appears that adaptive forecasting techniques are insufficient to update BJ time-series models when used in conjunction with quarterly earnings data. Re-estimation is recommended as each new observation becomes available. Re-identification procedures are recommended on a less frequent basis.