Improving predictive accuracy of logistic regression model using ranked set samples

Logistic regression is often confronted with separation of likelihood problem, especially with unbalanced success–failure distribution. We propose to address this issue by drawing a ranked set sample (RSS). Simulation studies illustrated the advantages of logistic regression models fitted with RSS samples with small sample size regardless of the distribution of the binary response. As sample size increases, RSS eventually becomes comparable to SRS, but still has the advantage over SRS in mitigating the problem of separation of likelihood. Even in the presence of ranking errors, models from RSS samples yield higher predictive ability than its SRS counterpart.     

Short-term impacts of urban landscape conversion on surface runoff quality

Urban Ecosystems - Given the rapid pace of urbanization and resulting pressures on water supplies in many regions, landscape water conservation has become increasingly important for many...     

Race,Diversity, and Membership Duration in Religious Congregations*

It has long been noted that religious congregations tend to be racially homogenous. Previous case studies assert that members of a numerical minority group face individual and organizational pressures that lead them to leave congregations faster than majority members. This can create a constant pull toward homogeneity despite congregational efforts to diversify. Building on theory in organizational ecology, we test this assertion using national, multi level data from the U.S. Congregational Life Survey. The analysis shows that members of a numerical minority do have shorter durations of membership than majority members and that the gap between the two increases with the size of the majority.     

Can Heterosexist Music Cause Hiring Discrimination Against Sexual Minority Men? Testing the Effects of Prejudicial Media Messages

Workplace heterosexism is a pervasive issue affecting lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) employees. This study investigated the influence of heterosexist media on hiring decisions by exposing 171 heterosexual undergraduate men to heterosexist rap music, nonheterosexist rap music, or no music and measuring their evaluations of a heterosexual and gay male professorial job applicant immediately afterward. As expected, participants exposed to the heterosexist music provided lower evaluations of the gay applicant than those exposed to no music, for two of the eight dimensions measured. Also, participants exposed to heterosexist messages were less willing to recommend and meet one-on-one with a gay candidate than a heterosexual one. Music condition effects remained, even with demographic factors controlled. These findings suggest that media heterosexism may affect hiring decisions for GBT men and may also influence the treatment of these men in a workplace environment.     

Probation training,cognition and crime: Uses and abuses of theory

In this article it is argued that a fundamental revolution in the theory base of the Probation Service is currently underway. This is exemplified in the proposed changes to Probation qualifying training according to which the Home Office intends to remove this from both higher education and social work. The author argues that this represents an abandonment of a holistic approach to the rehabilitation of offenders in favour of a model of reformatory intervention plundered wholly inappropriately from a complex body of cognitive theory. The article reviews the recent history in relation to the application of psychological theories to probation and social work practice and education, and warns of the dangers of misusing theory to satisfy a perceived demand for a simplistic, reductionist view of offending behaviour.     

To serve and protect: Textualizing the Falklands conflict

ABSTRACT

This article examines the roles and functions of narratives in the conduct and prosecution of the Falklands War. It looks at how, and with what degree of success the Falklands conflict was emplotted into potent definitions of national identity; how it was constructed as the embodiment of certain cherished ideals of nationhood, and thus slotted into what Patrick Wright calls the ‘mythical Histories’ of Britain and Argentina. It considers how the languages of diplomacy and sport were articulated within a discourse of war. It examines how participants in the conflict, journalists and combatants, made use of narratives cognate with the tradition of the romance quest in an effort to make sense of the conflict, promote its aims and provide themselves with reassurance at times of uncertainty, if not naked terror. It also considers how opposition to the war, dissenting opinions about the legitimacy of its aims and prosecution, and a more critical view of its costs, was most often and most effectively articulated in narratives which contested and deconstructed the discursive norms of the romance quest, or which challenged the coherence of the narrative or the narrative subject itself.     

Risky bodies in risky spaces: disabled people’s pursuit of outdoor leisure

Risk is used to deny disabled people access to many parts of mainstream life. Using qualitative data we explore disabled people’s views and experiences of outdoor recreation, bringing together ideas from two areas of sociology – disability studies and risk using the concepts of edgework and psycho-emotional disablism. Many people felt that the outdoors represented a risky environment. For some, risk was one of the main drivers for going out into the countryside; whilst for others, risk was a major cause of their reluctance to venture into the countryside. Engaging in risk both can disable and can challenge disablist views.