Noninformative priors for the common mean in the bivariate normal distribution

In this paper, we consider some noninformative priors for the common mean in a bivariate normal population. We develop the first-order and second-order matching priors and reference priors. We find that the second-order matching prior is also an HPD matching prior, and matches the alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order. It turns out that derived reference priors do not satisfy a second-order matching criterion. Our simulation study indicates that the second-order matching prior performs better than the reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. We also illustrate our results using real data.     

Reliability acceptance sampling plans for the Weibull distribution under accelerated Type-I censoring

Type-I censored reliability acceptance sampling plans (RASPs) are developed for the Weibull lifetime distribution with unknown shape and scale parameters such that the producer and consumer risks are satisfied. It is assumed that the life test is conducted at an accelerated condition for which the acceleration factor (AF) is known, and each item is continuously monitored for failure. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted to assess the effect of the uncertainty in the assumed AF on the actual producer and consumer risks, and a method is developed for constructing RASPs that can accommodate the uncertainty in AF.     

Bayesian partial likelihood approach for tied observations

The Bayesian analysis based on the partial likelihood for Cox's proportional hazards model is frequently used because of its simplicity. The Bayesian partial likelihood approach is often justified by showing that it approximates the full Bayesian posterior of the regression coefficients with a diffuse prior on the baseline hazard function. This, however, may not be appropriate when ties exist among uncensored observations. In that case, the full Bayesian and Bayesian partial likelihood posteriors can be much different. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian partial likelihood approach for many tied observations and justify its use.     

Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction

Summary.  Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models that are constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. This paper makes five contributions to this evaluation: the relative utility curve which gauges the potential for better prediction in terms of utilities, without the need for a reference level for one utility, while providing a sensitivity analysis for misspecification of utilities, the relevant region, which is the set of values of prediction performance that are consistent with the recommended treatment status in the absence of prediction, the test threshold, which is the minimum number of tests that would be traded for a true positive prediction in order for the expected utility to be non-negative, the evaluation of two-stage predictions that reduce test costs and connections between various measures of performance of prediction. An application involving the risk of cardiovascular disease is discussed.     

A longitudinal analysis of the impact of health shocks on the wealth of elders

We investigate the impact of health shocks on wealth, using all four waves of the Health and Retirement Study, and estimate not only the short-term effect but also the long-term effect of health shocks on wealth of the elderly. We find that new health events lower wealth in elders during the period in which such health shocks occur, but the impact tends to disappear over time. We also find that health shocks result in greater wealth depletion when they occur later in life. Together with existing health problems, the overall impact of health problems on wealth increases over time.

Life with and without heart disease among women and men over 50

This article uses a demographic approach and data from the Health and Retirement Survey, a nationally representative sample of the U.S. population, to investigate sex differences in the length of life lived with heart disease and after a heart attack for persons in the United States age 50 and older. On average, women live longer than men with heart disease. At age 50 women can expect to live 7.9 years and men 6.7 years with heart disease. The average woman experiences heart disease onset three years older and heart attacks 4.4 years older than men.     

The making and unmaking of a “transborder nation”: South Korea during and after the Cold War

The burgeoning literature on transborder membership, largely focused on the thickening relationship between emigration states in the South and the postwar labor migrant populations and their descendants in North America or Western Europe, has not paid due attention to the long-term macroregional transformations that shape transborder national membership politics or to the bureaucratic practices of the state that undergird transborder claims-making. By comparing contentious transborder national membership politics in South Korea during the Cold War and Post-Cold War eras, this article seeks to overcome these limitations. In both periods, the membership status of colonial-era ethnic Korean migrants in Japan and northeast China and their descendants was the focus of contestation. The distinctiveness of the case—involving both a sustained period of colonial rule and a period of belated and divided nation-state building interwoven with the Cold War—highlights the crucial importance of three factors: (1) the dynamically evolving macro-regional context, which has shaped transborder national membership politics in the region in distinctive ways; (2) the essentially political, performative, and constitutive nature of transborder nation-building; and (3) the role of state registration and documentation practices in shaping the contours of transborder national membership politics in the long run. By incorporating Korea—and East Asia more broadly—into the comparative study of transborder nation-building, this article also lays the groundwork for future cross-regional comparative historical studies.

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The Emergence of Two Distinct Fertility Regimes in Economically Advanced Countries

Beginning in 2000, in economically advanced countries, a remarkable bifurcation in fertility levels has emerged, with one group in the moderate range of period total fertility rates, about 1.9, and the other at 1.3. The upper branch consists of countries in Northern and Western Europe, Oceania and the United States; the lower branch includes Central, Southern, and Eastern Europe, and East and Southeast Asia. A review of the major theories for low-fertility countries reveals that none of them would have predicted this specific bifurcation. We argue that those countries with fertility levels close to replacement level have institutional arrangements, and related policies, that make it easier, not easy, for women to combine the worker and mother roles. The institutional details are quite different across countries, suggesting that multiple combinations of institutional arrangements and policies can lead to the same country-level fertility outcome. Canada, the only exception to this bifurcation, illustrates the importance of the different institutional structures in Québec compared to the rest of Canada.     

Stakeholder perceptions of contextual factors related to PBIS implementation in high need schools

Positive behavior intervention and supports (PBIS) is a thoroughly researched three-tiered framework for preventing and treating challenging behavior in schools. While more than 20 years of research contribute to the literature base, less is known about PBIS implementation in high-needs school settings, particularly those that serve students predominantly from low-income families and majority minority student populations across urban and rural districts. This study investigated the critical contextual factors of PBIS implementation from the stakeholder perspective. Specifically, we surveyed 161 participants including teachers, school staff members, and administrators who were PBIS team members and had received technical assistance in PBIS implementation. The completed surveys were analyzed with participants and their schools coded for district type, Title I funding, and position in order to determine how the perceptions of issues such as buy-in, administrator support, PBIS in secondary school settings, and poverty affect PBIS implementation and team needs. The factor analysis and resulting structure along with statistically significant results for each factor are presented along with implications.