SELECTING PARAMETERS FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

The objective of this paper is to discover which of three forecasting modes used to select parameters for four short-term forecasting techniques minimizes errors. The study also examines whether the amount of historical data used to find parameters contributes to forecasting success. The results show the traditional one-ahead search routine works well in some, but not all, forecasting situations. Also, forecasting errors appear to decline when more historical data are included in the parameter search.     

Chinese State Bureaucracy and Democratization: Contradictions and Strategization

Joining the current debate in the field of China studies, this paper argues that the two extremes of the inevitability and impossibility of democratization are not necessarily the only two trajectories of political development in China and that China can develop a genuine democracy that builds on, and in turn nurtures, responsible citizenship and administratorship, if CPC undertakes strategization to cope with the fundamental contradictions between democratization and political monism and reactionary logic of administration. Two examples of strategizing actions are given to illustrate how democratization may be enhanced.     

Religiosity and the political economy of the Salem witch trials

Salem Village, both before and through the witchcraft trials, was a religion-based community, allowing its minister to exert a level of political–economic control over its citizens. During the height of the witchcraft episode, there was an increased demand for ministerial services (salvation) in the Salem area. Recent research has argued that the minister used the witchcraft episode to maintain and build upon personal and corporate wealth. In the years after the witchcraft trials changes were made in the business and legal environment of the surrounding New England region. By transitioning to a more neutral rules system with a larger area of consensus for the system, Salem and the rest of the New England transitioned from the 17th Century traditional, religion-based community to a more rules-based, pro-business one in the 18th Century.     

Aging male bodies,health and the reproduction of age relations

This article explores the ways in which a group of male factory workers uses bodies as bases for hierarchical categorization of men by age in their talk of mundane aspects of their lives. Analysis of interviews about health (4 focus groups and 5 personal interviews) with Finnish working-class men under 40 years old shows that they portray age groups to which they do not belong as careless, even irresponsible toward health and its maintenance. As they categorize youth and old people by age, they leave themselves unmarked by it, providing no vocabulary to describe their own group. Despite their tendency to distance themselves particularly from old people, they also distinguish among older men by familiarity, providing relatively nuanced accounts of their fathers' aging. We discuss the marking of age groups in terms of social inequality and talk of fathers in terms of intergenerational relations. Even family ties among men of diverse ages involve ageism, which familiarity serves both to mitigate and to make less visible. This article documents the maintenance of age inequality in everyday, mundane behavior.     

Integrating strategic issues into strategic management

The notion of a ‘strategic issues’ is rather pervasive in the field of planning in both conceptual [5, 19] and practical contexts. For instance, sometime ago the Wall Street Journal [41] reported that at least 50 large firms have created positions of ‘issues management director’; a dramatic increase in the number of such positions. ‘True’ strategic issues have a readily apparent importance to any organization; yet the process of identifying such issues and of integrating them into strategic planning and management is not well developed. Most treatments of strategic issues deal only with specific segments of the overall process through which relevant issues may be initially identified and finally translated into appropriate strategy [e.g. 5, 17]. This paper demonstrates that it is practical to develop a comprehensive process of ‘strategic issue management’ (SIM) that will facilitate the systematic identification, assessment and analysis of such issues. Such a process can ensure that issue-related factors are fully integrated into the formulation and implementation of strategy and plans. As such, SIM is a process whereby strategic issues may become an integral element of strategic management.     

Work rehabilitation programs: a 1997 survey

By adapting to the changing health care environment, legislative reforms, and consumer needs, work rehabilitation programs have experienced a metamorphosis. This study surveyed occupational therapists currently employed in work programs to ascertain a current demographic profile of work rehabilitation programs. Respondents indicated the delivery of services in the areas of prevention, assessment and rehabilitation. The majority of work rehabilitation programs in this study provide services in the form of ergonomics, education and training, and job analyses at the worksite. The area of work injury prevention services is forecasted for increased growth among work rehabilitation programs.     

A Comparison of Child-sex-abuse-related and Mental-disorder-related Suicide in a Six-year Cohort of Regional Suicides: The Importance of the Child Protection-Psychiatric Interface

Correspondence to: Professor Colin Pritchard, Department of Mental Health, School of Medicine, Southampton University, Royal South Hants Hospital, Southampton SO14 0YG, UK. E-mail: cp1{at}soton.ac.uk Summary The study compares Mental-Disorder-Related (MDR) suicide rateswith Child-Sex-Abuse-Related (CSAR) suicide of ‘Victims’and ‘Perpetrators’ of child sex abuse, based uponan examination of all Coroners’ inquest files over a six-yearperiod (n = 1,017). Census data, psychiatric case register andpolice records were used to calculate the potential MDR andCSAR populations. There were five main findings: (i) male andfemale CSAR victim suicide rates were 2.2. and 2.5 times theGeneral Population Suicide Rate (GPSR), respectively; (ii) everyfemale, and 80 per cent of male CSAR victim suicides, also hada mental disorder but none of the CSAR perpetrator suicides;(iii) male and female MDR suicide rates were 5 and 6 times theCSAR Victim rates; (iv) the sex abuser perpetrators’ suiciderate was more than 3 times the male MDR rate; (v) the intra-and extra-familial perpetrator suicide rates, were 25 and 78times the GPSR, respectively. Possible explanations for thesesurprising results are briefly discussed. They confirm the overrepresentationof people with mental disorder amongst suicides, and identifyan overrepresentation of CSAR suicides, particularly perpetrators.The results have implications for suicide prevention programmes,whilst highlighting the importance of the child protection-psychiatricinterface, and indicates the futility of simple explanationsin an area of practical and moral complexity.     

Ergonomic recommendations and their role in cardiac sonography

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) have been recognized as a serious hazard to the health and safety of sonographers. Recommendations have been made on ways to reduce and prevent the frequency and severity of these disorders. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the impact ergonomics has had on the prevalence of MSDs among cardiac sonographers. Three hundred randomly selected Registered Diagnostic Cardiac Sonographers were surveyed. Eighty-one respondents completed the survey. The majority of the sample population was female with an average age of 40 and job tenure between 6-15 years. Ninety percent of respondents reported musculoskeletal pain/discomfort while scanning. Seventy-three percent of respondents perceived a need for ergonomic interventions. The majority of respondents were aware of previously recommended ergonomic interventions and had implemented what was feasible. Still, the experience of pain and discomfort, and incidence of MSDs remains exceptionally high for this occupation. It appears that recommended ergonomic interventions have not had a significant impact on improving the health and safety of cardiac sonographers.