Review Essay: On the Trail of Tribal Sociology

Sociological Forum -     

Charismatic leadership in business organizations: Some neglected issues

The article reviews some of the recent literature on charismatic leadership and notes that there has been a tendency for research and theorizing to emphasize a number of issues examined by Weber to the relative exclusion of others. Those areas that have been focused upon, have tended to reflect the “applied” emphasis in much research in the field of leadership in organizations. The article takes two areas that were central to Weber's work—routinization of charisma and loss of charisma—to demonstrate that these topics can illuminate and add to our understanding of the operation of charismatic leadership in business and other formal organizations.     

ON THE MACROFOUNDATIONS OF MICROSOCIOLOGY:

Just as Collins (1981) demonstrates that microsociological presuppositions elucidate macrosociology, the reverse holds as well. Fundamental axioms are the existence of (1) a set of constraints that channel individual action and expectations and (2) obdurate, exterior realities of supraindividual entities. Expanding on these presuppositions this article proposes a set of issues that collectively help provide a macrosociological basis for interpretive microsociology: the physical limits of the built environment, temporal and spatial effects, institutional linkages, the obdurate reality of tradition, and beliefs in organizational primacy. These underline the often unrecognized centrality and legitimacy of macrosociological analysis for the development of microsociology.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

A Semi-Parametric Quantile Function Estimator for Use in Bootstrap Estimation Procedures

In this note we develop a new quantile function estimator called the tail extrapolation quantile function estimator. The estimator behaves asymptotically exactly the same as the standard linear interpolation estimator. For finite samples there is small correction towards estimating the extreme quantiles. We illustrate that by employing this new estimator we can greatly improve the coverage probabilities of the standard bootstrap percentile confidence intervals. The method does not reqiure complicated calculations and hence it should appeal to the statistical practitioner.     

The Impact of Question and Respondent Characteristics on Comprehension and Mapping Difficulties

Behavior coding is one technique researchers use to detect problemsin survey questions, but it has been primarily explored as apractical tool rather than a source of insight into the theoreticalunderstanding of the cognitive processes by which respondentsanswer survey questions. The latter is the focus of the currentinvestigation. Using data from a large study in which face-to-faceinterviews were taped and extensive behavior coding was done,we tested whether sets of respondent behavior codes could beused to distinguish respondent difficulties with comprehensionof the question from difficulties associated with mapping ajudgment onto the response format provided, and whether characteristicsof the survey questions and respondents could be used to predictwhen and for whom such difficulties would occur. Sets of behaviorcodes were identified that reflected comprehension and mappingdifficulties, and these two types of difficulties were associatedwith different question and respondent characteristics. Thisevidence suggests that behavior coding shows promise as a toolfor researchers studying the cognitive processes involved inanswering survey questions.