Moment closure based parameter inference of stochastic kinetic models

Parameter inference for stochastic kinetic models is a topic that spans many disciplines. Although it is possible to carry out exact inference using partial observations of a stochastic process, it is often computationally impractical. In this paper we use the moment closure approximation of the underlying stochastic process as a fast approximation of the likelihood. We show that this approximation is fast and accurate, even when the population numbers are small.     

Using Mokken methods to develop robust cross-national scales: American and West German attitudes toward abortion

A fundamental methodological issue in cross-national research on attitudes is the comparability of the attitude measures across populations. We address this issue by presenting the Mokken method and accompanying Mokken test as a means for developing equivalent attitude scales. We apply these methods to an analysis of the responses to seven abortion items in the 1982 NORC GSS and West German ALLBUS combined files. We find that the seven items form a unidimensional scale in both countries and that four of these items constitute a scale that is robust across the two populations. We conclude by describing how such results can be used to guide the development of Rasch and LISREL models.     

They Just Do Not Vote Like They Used To: A Methodology to Empirically Assess Election Fraud*

Objectives. In contemporary U.S. elections there is no shortage of allegations concerning election fraud. These claims are, however, based in large part on anecdotal evidence, unsubstantiated assertions, or the study of reported complaints. The absence of a general methodology to actively search for evidence of election fraud has resulted in policy arguments devoid of empirical data and systematic analyses. Methods. In this article, we present a general methodology to study contemporary election fraud based on the Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) process. We then apply this approach to a case study of a particular type of fraud. Results. After examining approximately 2.1 million votes cast during the 2006 general election in Georgia, we find no evidence that election fraud was committed under the auspices of deceased registrants. Conclusion. In this article, we have introduced a general methodology for the scientific study of election fraud. We urge social scientists to make use of such a framework to investigate the prevalence of different types of fraud across varying election cycles and jurisdictions.     

The Phenomenon Of The Public Wife: An Exercise In Goffman's Impression Management*

Approaching the topic of American leader-image from the perspective of politics-as-theater (political communication as exchange of symbols), this paper examines a taken-for-granted visual symbol which a national political leader is invariably expected to present: a wife. Her contributions to her husband's “impression management” techniques (Goffman, 1959) are studied in Goffman's “defensive” categories of dramaturgical loyalty, dramaturgical discipline, and dramaturgical circumspection. This analysis suggests that the visible presence of a wife in public leadership rituals offers the public voter or viewer important reassurances or symbolic guarantees about her husband's “morality”—and, therefore, his appropriateness for public trust. She has become a necessary partof his public performance because of our everyday need for “cultural absolutes” (Furay, 1977) in the image of our leadership figures.     

Bayesian inference for a partially observed birth–death process using data on proportions

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have measurements on all interacting chemical species in the process, observed continuously in time. However, in practice, measurements are taken only at a relatively few time‐points. In some situations, only very limited observation of the process is available, for example settings in which experimenters can only observe noisy observations on the proportion of cells that are alive. This makes the inference task even more problematic. We consider a range of data‐poor scenarios and investigate the performance of various computationally intensive Bayesian algorithms in determining the posterior distribution using data on proportions from a simple birth‐death process.     

A test of the Maslach Burnout Inventory in three samples of healthcare professionals

Structural equation modelling with LISREL was used to investigate the factor structure of the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). Emotional exhaustion was the most robust of the MBI's three factors, followed by depersonalization, while the personal accomplishment factor performed weakly. A new measurement model was developed in a sample of 197 nurses consisting of the emotional exhaustion and depersonalization dimensions, which were measured with five and two empirical MBI indicators, respectively. A test of invariance of the two-factor model across three samples (i.e. one calibration sample of nurses, and two validation samples consisting of hospital laboratory technicians and hospital managers with an effective sample size of 445) produced a good fit for the proposed two-factor model. Assessment of psychometric properties of the two-factor model produced (1) internal consistencies comparable to those reported in the literature for the MBI's originally specified emotional exhaustion and depersonalization scales, and (2) correlations with criterion variables that were all in the expected direction and magnitude, comparable to those produced by the originally specified scales. Theoretical implications for the use of the two-factor model in burnout research are discussed.     

A preliminary review of the parenting assessment and skill development service: A 10-day residential service for families at risk of child maltreatment

Tweddle's Parenting Assessment and Skill Development Service (PASDS) is a 10-day residential programme for families at risk of child maltreatment. The service aims to conduct a comprehensive parenting capacity assessment to inform case management and improve parenting practices. The aims of the study were to (1) describe the psychosocial functioning of parents taking part in PASDS, (2) describe the key parenting assessment outcomes, and (3) explore parents' experiences of participation in PASDS including (a) perceived barriers and enablers of participation and (b) perceived outcomes for their family. Participants were 18 parents who participated in Tweddle's PASDS in Melbourne, Australia. A mixed methods study comprising a case file review and qualitative interviews was conducted. Parents accessing PASDS had experienced adverse childhood events, and many were experiencing mental health difficulties. Interviews with parents revealed perceived benefits of PASDS in improving parenting knowledge and skills, family relationships, and parenting confidence. At the time of discharge, 33% of families were assessed as unable to provide independent care for their child. The current findings have important implications for the further evaluation of evidenced-based services which can improve the accuracy of parenting capacity assessments, aiding in child protection decision-making related to child placement and safety.