Statistical Analysis of Heat Waves in the State of Victoria in Australia

The recent blistering heat waves of 2009 in the state of Victoria in Australia were so unprecedented in terms of duration and intensity that society was largely unprepared. These heat waves caused serious health, social and economic problems. In this paper, the daily maximum temperatures at ten selected stations are studied. Auto‐regressive integrated moving‐average models are used to prewhiten the time series. Uncorrelated, non‐normal and heavy‐tailed residuals are analyzed by means of a new skew t‐mixture distribution. The number of mixture components is effectively determined by an innovative penalisation procedure. It is shown that the resulting skew t‐mixture models provide an acceptable fit in all cases. Possible future temperature patterns are obtained through simulation. It is forecast that the average duration of high temperature episodes will increase by two to three days per year and a new eight‐year high temperature level is very likely in the coming few years. The relationship between heavy tail behaviour of the fitted distribution and heat waves is noteworthy.     

Technology and Family Dynamics: The Relationships Among Children’s Use of Mobile Devices,Family Atmosphere and Parenting Approaches

Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal - This paper examines how family atmosphere, parental self-efficacy, parenting methods and children’s patterns of mobile device use result in negative...     

Restorative justice for delinquents in Hong Kong: current practices and challenges

ABSTRACT

In Hong Kong, juvenile justice embraces mainly disciplinary welfare and rehabilitative philosophies. Various statutory measures are applied to juvenile offenders, including police cautioning, community-based treatment programmes and custodial sentencing options. However, no statutory restorative measure has yet been incorporated into the mainstream criminal justice system in Hong Kong. Several non-governmental organisations are developing innovative strategies to prevent problematic adolescents from slipping into delinquency and are willing to apply restorative practices to help delinquents desist from engaging in criminal careers. This study begins with main features of restorative justice, and it highlights the preventive and correctional services for delinquents in Hong Kong. The study also questions the explanations offered by the government for not implementing restorative justice. By comparing restorative options for juveniles in some Asian jurisdictions, the study advocates for an earlier introduction of restorative justice for the benefits of juvenile offenders.     

Hiding and seeking: Children's lived experiences during COVID-19

A qualitative study explored the perspectives and lived experiences of school-age children during COVID-19 using a child rights lens. Twenty children between the ages of 7 and 12 participated in open-ended, virtual interviews. Our hermeneutic analysis found children's right to play and education were severely compromised leaving children to navigate between two worlds: the adult world of public health restrictions and that of their childhood. Despite challenges and lost childhood opportunities, children emerged as competent social agents and responsible citizens. Planning for future pandemics should include policies and practices that balance public health needs with the protection of children's rights.     

Developmental deviations in happy victimization across early childhood predict behavioral adjustment in middle childhood

This study examined whether the development of happy victimizing (HV) from early to middle childhood predicted prosocial and aggressive behaviors 3 years later. Participants included 150 children (50% female, M_age at study onset = 4.53 years) and their parents at four annual time points. At each time point, semi-structured interviews were conducted to assess children's emotional expectations after committing hypothetical transgressions. Child and parent reports of children's prosocial behaviors and aggression were provided at the beginning and end of the study. Children who experienced faster declines in HV reported higher prosocial behaviors 3 years later, controlling for initial levels of prosocial behaviors. Children who exhibited increases or lesser declines in HV reported higher aggression at the study end. The development of HV was not related significantly to parent reports of prosocial behaviors and aggression in middle childhood. Findings confirm theorizing on the normative developmental trajectory of HV and suggest that deviations in HV across early childhood may partially explain later behavioral adjustment.     

刘向《诗》学家法研究

刘向之《诗经》学家法,前人每有论及。然其论据及研究方法,均仍有可改善之处。本文从家学、异文比较、《诗》说比较三方面,考论刘向之《诗》学家法,以图全面分析刘向《诗》学家法的问题,并希望由此而于两汉《诗》学研究有所裨益。     

Combining evidence from clinical trials in conditional or accelerated approval

Conditional (European Medicines Agency) or accelerated (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) approval of drugs allows earlier access to promising new treatments that address unmet medical needs. Certain post-marketing requirements must typically be met in order to obtain full approval, such as conducting a new post-market clinical trial. We study the applicability of the recently developed harmonic mean ${\chi }^2$-test to this conditional or accelerated approval framework. The proposed approach can be used both to support the design of the post-market trial and the analysis of the combined evidence provided by both trials. Other methods considered are the two-trials rule, Fisher's criterion and Stouffer's method. In contrast to some of the traditional methods, the harmonic mean ${\chi }^2$-test always requires a post-market clinical trial. If the $p$-value from the pre-market clinical trial is $\ll 0.025$, a smaller sample size for the post-market clinical trial is needed than with the two-trials rule. For illustration, we apply the harmonic mean ${\chi }^2$-test to a drug which received conditional (and later full) market licensing by the EMA. A simulation study is conducted to study the operating characteristics of the harmonic mean ${\chi }^2$-test and two-trials rule in more detail. We finally investigate the applicability of these two methods to compute the power at interim of an ongoing post-market trial. These results are expected to aid in the design and assessment of the required post-market studies in terms of the level of evidence required for full approval.     

Racial-ethnic socialization,racial discrimination,and internalization of the model minority myth in East Asian families

Guided by the integrative model, this study investigated the moderating effect of East Asian American youth-reported (N = 143) racial-ethnic socialization (RES) in the relationship between the youth's experiences of discrimination and internalization of the model minority myth. The results suggest that there was a significant interaction between youth's racial discrimination and youth-reported awareness of discrimination on youth's internalization of the model minority myth (b = 3.52, p < .05). No significant interaction effect emerged between racial discrimination and maintenance of heritage culture on internalization of model minority myth. The findings offer several contributions to inform research, family, and communities in understanding the ways caregivers respond to youth's racialized settings, which also contribute to youth's positive outcomes.     

Returning to the nest: Emerging adults living with parents during the COVID-19 pandemic

Changes in the working, study and social lives of emerging adults due to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to greater need for external supports. Many who lived independently may have sought that support by returning to live with parents. This study identifies factors associated with returns made between 2019 and 2020. It describes supports needed and obtained, relationships between parents and their resident emerging adults and identifies correlates of poor coping and high psychological distress. Data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth and the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children were used and showed half of the emerging adults who moved did so due to COVID-19 restrictions. Loss of work and increased need for emotional and financial support were key drivers of moves. Nineteen per cent who returned found spending more time with family difficult and over half did not have their support needs fully met, increasing their odds of poor coping at that time (OR = 2.9, 4.3, respectively) and subsequent psychological distress (OR = 6.0). Families were an important source of support but could not necessarily mitigate all challenges; for some emerging adults, returning to live with parents gave rise to additional difficulties which negatively affected mental health.