保险服务自由化下的国际保险监管路径及对中国之借鉴

在保险自由化推动下,国际保险监管日益成为保险业发展不可或缺的制度需求,而国际保险监管反过来也必须以保险自由化为最终的目标和动力。国际保险监管促进与实现保险服务自由化必须经历解除市场监管和建立偿付能力监管体系的两个阶段,而最终要以偿付能力监管为核心。当前,国际保险监管体系已经在全球、区域和各国单边层次逐步建立起来,而解除市场监管和定量与定性并重的偿付能力监管模式也成为当前国际保险监管体系的主体内容,在此背景下,我国保险监管也逐步形成了以解除市场监管与确立偿付能力监管模式双轨并行的体系,并最终将与国际主流的偿付能力监管模式取得一致。     

论企业形象战略与名牌战略的结合

二十一世纪的市场竞争是企业形象的竞争,我国企业在自身形象的塑造上,有许多不足需要改善,而企业形象战略偏重于企业的微观方面,内容涉及到企业工作的方方面面,是非常细化、具体的一种战略,这时需要一种侧重于宏观的战略来引导,而名牌战略正是这样一种战略。在企业形象塑造过程中可以把两种战略结合起来实施,使这两种战略发挥出更大的效用。     

Network Reconfiguration for Increasing Transportation System Resilience Under Extreme Events

Evacuating residents out of affected areas is an important strategy for mitigating the impact of natural disasters. However, the resulting abrupt increase in the travel demand during evacuation causes severe congestions across the transportation system, which thereby interrupts other commuters' regular activities. In this article, a bilevel mathematical optimization model is formulated to address this issue, and our research objective is to maximize the transportation system resilience and restore its performance through two network reconfiguration schemes: contraflow (also referred to as lane reversal) and crossing elimination at intersections. Mathematical models are developed to represent the two reconfiguration schemes and characterize the interactions between traffic operators and passengers. Specifically, traffic operators act as leaders to determine the optimal system reconfiguration to minimize the total travel time for all the users (both evacuees and regular commuters), while passengers act as followers by freely choosing the path with the minimum travel time, which eventually converges to a user equilibrium state. For each given network reconfiguration, the lower‐level problem is formulated as a traffic assignment problem (TAP) where each user tries to minimize his/her own travel time. To tackle the lower‐level optimization problem, a gradient projection method is leveraged to shift the flow from other nonshortest paths to the shortest path between each origin–destination pair, eventually converging to the user equilibrium traffic assignment. The upper‐level problem is formulated as a constrained discrete optimization problem, and a probabilistic solution discovery algorithm is used to obtain the near‐optimal solution. Two numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in restoring the traffic system performance.     

“Responsiveness of mature oak trees (Quercus robur L.) to soil water dynamics and meteorological constraints in urban environments”

Urban Ecosystems - Urban trees contribute to the regulation of microclimates of cities through transpirational cooling. The main environmental factors determining transpiration are evaporative...     

终身教育视角下对全民健身与经营性健身俱乐部互促发展的思考

开展全民健身运动,可以改善人民身体素质,缓解精神压力,对建设和谐健康的生活方式起到了非常积极的影响。我国自从大力开展该项运动以来,取得了非常大的进展与成绩,但是仍然有很多不足之处。经营性体育健身俱乐部在中国起步较晚,发展较慢,导致经营性体育健身俱乐部的管理模式没有跟上时代发展的步伐,普遍处于长期亏损状态。     

多学科聚力铸牢中华民族共同体意识研究(笔谈一)

铸牢中华民族共同体意识是新时代民族工作的主线,也是民族研究的重大议题。这一议题内涵丰富,兼具学理性和实践性,意义深远而又充满挑战性。这方面的研究涉及面广,纵横交错,往往因时因地而异,可谓机理玄妙,非有一个多学科学术共同体通力合作、长期跟踪、潜心钻研而不得将其研究透彻。学科是对于人类知识体系的划分,而现实社会是一个系统性的整体,许多问题的解决需要综合运用多种学科的知识来实现。多学科聚力铸牢中华民族共同体意识研究,可将主题置于更为系统宏阔的学术视野,避免单一学科的诸多局限。多学科交叉融合能为学术进取提供强劲动力,有效的融会贯通有利于铸牢中华民族共同体意识研究的理论突破和实践创新。学科融合也是新文科理念的要义所在,以问题为中心,各学科围绕问题通力合作,互学互鉴,在交叉融合中守正创新。要而言之,加强、深化铸牢中华民族共同体意识研究,从打造学术共同体走起。为此,严庆教授创意策划,本刊邀请多学科专家参与主题笔谈,并设专题栏目,以期实现星光交彻,集聚智慧,凝聚共识。     

Probabilistic,Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT‐FLEMO

Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth‐damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable B agging decision T ree F lood L oss E stimation MO del (BT‐FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT‐FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT‐FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth‐damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT‐FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT‐FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT‐FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study.     

内与外:民族区域自治实践的中国语境

中国的民族区域自治,是以国家为中心,在维护国家统一和尊重少数民族特殊性之间采取的一种妥协性制度,是现代中国民族—国家体制建设进程的产物。基于民族区域自治,文明帝国的"藩属"成为民族—国家内部的"边疆地区"。国家优待少数民族的民族政策,将边疆地区和少数民族人口整合进现代语境下的国家"大一统"政治格局。中国的民族区域自治同时具有历史合理性和历史局限性,既承认、容纳和适应了文化多样性的现实,也固化了族群边界,并受到国家政治、文化传统与社会结构等多种因素的制约,在实际运行机制上制度效能有限。特别是改革开放后,由于中国的民族—国家建设所面临的内部和外部条件发生了结构性变化,民族区域自治制度正在遭遇一系列的挑战,面临一种不确定的演变前景。     

美国北极事务中阿拉斯加州与联邦政府的合作与博弈

阿拉斯加在美国北极战略中占有重要地位,为美国提供能源保障和军事支持,同时为美国北极权益主张提供客观基础。阿拉斯加州与美国联邦政府在开发北极方面存在诸多不同意见,尤其表现在北极开发优先议程的设置、环境保护和对待原住民群体权益等方面。尽管如此,北极开发离不开联邦政府和阿拉斯加州的合作。双方在北极开发中拥有众多共同利益:维护美国在北极利益;加强阿拉斯加州基础设施建设;促进北极科学开发等。在美国宪政体系下,美国北极开发不得不面临联邦政府同阿拉斯加州政府的博弈,双方将在维护共同利益的基础上进行合作。     

国外二语/外语交互活动中纠错反馈十年研究综述

近几十年来,国外越来越多的学者和教师在二语纠错反馈领域进行了观察和实证研究。尽管总体发现纠错反馈对二语/外语习得有益,对二语/外语教师提供了良好的教学启示,并为二语/外语研究者确认了研究方向。但是由于不同的聚焦,对纠错反馈类型划分的标准不一,以及不同的研究方法造成的研究结果往往差别很大。作者在对国外纠错反馈的十年研究汇总中尝试从理论发展、类型划分、效果研究、最新发展等几个方面梳理脉络,理清研究思路,从而为今后的研究指明方向。