Statistical data integration using multilevel models to predict employee compensation

This article considers the case where two surveys collect data on a common variable, with one survey being much smaller than the other. The smaller survey collects data on an additional variable of interest, related to the common variable collected in the two surveys, and out-of-scope with respect to the larger survey. Estimation of the two related variables is of interest at domains defined at a granular level. We propose a multilevel model for integrating data from the two surveys, by reconciling survey estimates available for the common variable, accounting for the relationship between the two variables, and expanding estimation for the other variable, for all the domains of interest. The model is specified as a hierarchical Bayes model for domain-level survey data, and posterior distributions are constructed for the two variables of interest. A synthetic estimation approach is considered as an alternative to the hierarchical modelling approach. The methodology is applied to wage and benefits estimation using data from the National Compensation Survey and the Occupational Employment Statistics Survey, available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, United States.     

Central exit examinations increase performance... but take the fun out of mathematics

We study the causal effect of state-mandated (central) exit examinations (CEEs) on student performance in Germany and find a small positive effect. We also investigate what actually drives this effect. We find that the teachers’ main reaction to CEEs is to increase the amount of homework and to check and discuss homework more often. Students report increased learning pressure, which has sizeable negative effects on student attitudes toward learning. Students who take central exit exams in mathematics like mathematics less, think it is less easy, and are more likely to find it boring.     

Too much information? Predictors of information overload in the context of online news exposure

As the Internet provides massive amounts of heterogeneous information, people may perceive this medium as challenging. The difficulty to evaluate and select relevant information increases as more and more diverse sources and content are available. Information overload (IO) may be the consequence. The research presented here gives a first comprehensive overview of possible indicators for IO in the context of online news exposure. Based on an online survey (N=419), we found that younger people with less information-seeking self-efficacy were more susceptible to experience IO. Additionally, we identified motivations for media consumption and information retrieval strategies in the Internet that imply IO. With our results, we contribute to a further understanding of IO and provide an important basis for future research needed to face the challenges resulting from the rising media diversity.     

Demographic dynamics and long-run development: insights for the secular stagnation debate

This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run demographic dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity, and the question of secular stagnation.     

Consistent judgement aggregation: the truth-functional case

Generalizing the celebrated “discursive dilemma”, we analyze judgement aggregation problems in which a group of agents independently votes on a set of complex propositions (the “conclusions”) and on a set of “premises” by which the conclusions are truth-functionally determined. We show that for conclusion- and premise-based aggregation rules to be mutually consistent, the aggregation must always be “oligarchic”, that is: unanimous within a subset of agents, and typically even be dictatorial. We characterize exactly when consistent non-dictatorial (or anonymous) aggregation rules exist, allowing for arbitrary conclusions and arbitrary interdependencies among premises.     

Working in Multidisciplinary Community Mental Health Teams: The Impact on Social Workers and Health Professionals of Integrated Mental Health Care

Correspondence to Professor John Carpenter, Centre for Applied Social Studies, University of Durham, Elvet Riverside II, Durham DH1 3JT, UK. E-mail: J.S.W.Carpenter{at}dur.ac.uk Summary This study investigated the relationships between the organizationof community mental health services and professional and teamidentification, team functioning and the psychological well-beingand job satisfaction of staff working in multidisciplinary communitymental health teams (CMHTs). Staff in four districts in theNorth of England completed anonymous questionnaires on two occasions,twelve months apart. There were systematic differences in teamfunctioning, favouring teams in districts where mental healthand social care services were integrated. However, service organizationhad no evident impact on professional or team identificationor on outcomes for staff in terms of stress or job satisfaction.There were differences between social workers (n = 31) and healthservice professionals (n = 82) indicating that social workershad poorer perceptions of team functioning and experienced higherlevels of role conflict. Controlling for other factors includingthe study districts, role conflict was a significant predictorof stress and of job dissatisfaction, while role clarity promotedjob satisfaction. We conclude that support and supervision aimedat ensuring a social work contribution to multidisciplinaryworking should be provided in the course of establishing CMHTsand integrated health and social care services.