Long memory estimation for complex-valued time series

Statistics and Computing - Long memory has been observed for time series across a multitude of fields, and the accurate estimation of such dependence, for example via the Hurst exponent, is crucial...     

Myths about Russia

This article provides an interdisciplinary theoretical analysis of contemporary social mythology and summarizes the results of an empirical study. The main groups of mythologized images of Russia in the consciousness of modern youth include: mythologized images of Russian domain and the historical perspective of Russia; symbolic and metaphorical images of Russia; and the types of social world views that young people have. The aspects of the constructive and destructive impacts of myths about Russia described in this article may be used to analyze and interpret individual and group images of Russia among young people and to develop recommendations for preventing the destructive impact of the mythologization of Russia's image on the social processes and consciousness of modern youth.     

Measuring Unidimensional Inequality: Practical Framework for the Choice of an Appropriate Measure

Social Indicators Research - Inequality and its analysis have received increasing attention in the literature over the last decades, which has led to the development of a large number of inequality...     

Early socialization of hostile attribution bias: The roles of parental attributions,parental discipline,and child attributes

The goal of this study was to examine child and parent predictors of children's hostile attribution bias (HAB) with a particular focus on exploring the associations between parents’ early attribution of child misbehavior and children's HAB in the transition to school age. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) of middle‐income families who were at risk for school‐age conduct problems. Multi‐method, multi‐informant data were collected on maternal attributions of child misbehavior, parental use of corporal punishment, and child attributes (i.e., verbal IQ, effortful control, theory of mind, and emotional understanding) at 3 years, and child HAB in ambiguous situations at 6 years. Results indicated that mothers’ internal explanations for children's misconduct may either reduce or increase children's later HAB depending on the specific content of attributions, such that mothers’ belief that children misbehave because of their internal state (i.e., emotional state or temperament) was associated with lower levels of child HAB, whereas attributing power‐based motives (i.e., manipulative, controlling intentions) in children was associated with higher levels of HAB. The findings are discussed with respect to appreciating the complexity of parents’ explanations for children's behavior, and considering parental cognition as a potential target for early identification and prevention of child HAB and related problems.     

Abortion Underreporting in Add Health: Findings and Implications

Population Research and Policy Review - Well-documented, large-scale abortion underreporting on U.S. surveys raises questions about the use of abortion self-reports for statistical inference. This...     

Efficient Monte Carlo simulation via the generalized splitting method

We describe a new Monte Carlo algorithm for the consistent and unbiased estimation of multidimensional integrals and the efficient sampling from multidimensional densities. The algorithm is inspired by the classical splitting method and can be applied to general static simulation models. We provide examples from rare-event probability estimation, counting, and sampling, demonstrating that the proposed method can outperform existing Markov chain sampling methods in terms of convergence speed and accuracy.     

Cross-National Coverage of Water Handling: A Community Structure Approach

A cross-national community structure survey examined the relationship between national characteristics and newspaper coverage of water handling. Sampling all relevant 250+ word articles from September 1, 2000 (the implementation of UN Millennium Development Goal target 7c) to September 1, 2010 in 21 newspapers worldwide in NewsBank and AllAfrica databases yielded 394 articles. Articles were coded for visual/editorial “prominence” and “direction” (framing of clean water access as primarily “government responsibility,” “societal responsibility,” or “balanced/neutral” coverage), then combined to produce composite “Media Vector” scores for each newspaper (+.5241 to ?.3886, a range of .9127). Thirteen of 21 Media Vectors (60%) reflected coverage favoring government responsibility for water handling. Pearson correlations revealed the potency of 4 variable cluster scales (all α = .70+) as major correlates of water handling coverage: “female empowerment,” “vulnerability,” “privilege,” and “press freedom,” with three clusters connected to “societal” responsibility. Regression analysis reinforced the strong role of female empowerment in coverage emphasizing societal responsibility. Overall, indicators of privilege and press freedom followed suit, also linked to coverage emphasizing “societal” responsibility for water handling, whereas indicators of vulnerability instead correlated with more media emphasis on government responsibility.     

New Data,Strategies, and Insights for Listeria monocytogenes Dose‐Response Models: Summary of an Interagency Workshop, 2011

Listeria monocytogenes is a leading cause of hospitalization, fetal loss, and death due to foodborne illnesses in the United States. A quantitative assessment of the relative risk of listeriosis associated with the consumption of 23 selected categories of ready‐to‐eat foods, published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2003, has been instrumental in identifying the food products and practices that pose the greatest listeriosis risk and has guided the evaluation of potential intervention strategies. Dose‐response models, which quantify the relationship between an exposure dose and the probability of adverse health outcomes, were essential components of the risk assessment. However, because of data gaps and limitations in the available data and modeling approaches, considerable uncertainty existed. Since publication of the risk assessment, new data have become available for modeling L. monocytogenes dose‐response. At the same time, recent advances in the understanding of L. monocytogenes pathophysiology and strain diversity have warranted a critical reevaluation of the published dose‐response models. To discuss strategies for modeling L. monocytogenes dose‐response, the Interagency Risk Assessment Consortium (IRAC) and the Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (JIFSAN) held a scientific workshop in 2011 (details available at http://foodrisk.org/irac/events/ ). The main findings of the workshop and the most current and relevant data identified during the workshop are summarized and presented in the context of L. monocytogenes dose‐response. This article also discusses new insights on dose‐response modeling for L. monocytogenes and research opportunities to meet future needs.     

Off‐Time Pubertal Timing Predicts Physiological Reactivity to Postpuberty Interpersonal Stress

We investigated associations between retrospectively assessed timing of pubertal development, interpersonal interactions, and hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis reactivity to an interpersonal stress task in 110 young adult women. Participants provided salivary cortisol samples at points prior and subsequent to a video‐taped conflict discussion with their romantic partner. Participants also provided subjective global ratings of their discussion on dimensions of conflict and support. For earlier developing girls, higher levels of interpersonal conflict were associated with greater physiological stress in anticipation of the discussion task and less physiological recovery following the discussion. In contrast, for later developing girls, low levels of conflict were associated with greater anticipatory stress and less physiological recovery. These findings have implications for understanding the influence of off‐time pubertal development on the lifetime development of young women.     

Approaches to the Fertility Transition in Victorian England

The secular decline of marital fertility which took place in late nineteenth and early twentieth-century England and Wales is considered by using a number of approaches. Among the theoretical approaches considered are those of transition models, and social diffusion. The former overemphasises the role of industrialization and urbanization; the latter is inappropriate when dealing with the development of a small-family ideal in Victorian society. Explanations of fertility decline using ecological and time-series analysis are considered. The registration districts of England and Wales provide the framework for analyses of spatial variations in marital fertility and its correlates in 1861, 1891 and 1911. A time-series analysis attempts to establish the sequential nature of social, economic and demographic changes during the sixty years preceding the First World War. The following points are emphasised in conclusion. The Victorian fertility transition was not directly related to the development of an urban-industrial society, the social diffusion of family ideals or the use of appliance methods of contraception. But its immediate cause was probably linked to the substantial increase in family planning literature available from the 1870s, and the challenge that this posed to the tradition of unlimited marital fertility. This critical change in social attitudes to family planning was facilitated both by developments in mass education and, ultimately by the decline of infant mortality.