Fiducial prediction intervals

This paper presents an approach for constructing prediction intervals for any given distribution. The approach is based on the principle of fiducial inference. We use several examples, including the normal, binomial, exponential, gamma, and Weibull distributions, to illustrate the proposed procedure.     

Poverty and Material Hardship in Grandparent‐Headed Households

Using the 2001 Survey of Income and Program Participation, the current study examines poverty and material hardship among children living in 3‐generation (n = 486), skipped‐generation (n = 238), single‐parent (n = 2,076), and 2‐parent (n = 6,061) households. Multinomial and logistic regression models indicated that children living in grandparent‐headed households experience elevated risk of health insecurity (as measured by receipt of public insurance and uninsurance)—a disproportionate risk given rates of poverty within those households. Children living with single parents did not share this substantial risk. Risk of food and housing insecurity did not differ significantly from 2‐parent households once characteristics of the household and caregivers were taken into account.     

欧盟扩大后的多边治理

欧盟扩大被认为是对现有治理体系的一种外在冲击,它扩大了欧洲的公共空间,也使得这种公共空间多样化。在这种新的环境下,等级制的治理模式越发显得缺乏解释力,欧盟不得不采用更为灵活、分权和软性的治理模式。     

Folk Theories of Happiness: A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Conceptions of Happiness in Germany and South Africa

Although happiness as a state of mind may be universal, its meaning takes culture-specific forms. Drawing on the concept of folk theories, this study attempted to uncover lay beliefs about the nature of happiness in Germany and South Africa. To that end, 57 German and 44 black South African students wrote free-format essays in response to the question: “What is happiness to you?” Using thematic analysis the following themes were found: (1) satisfaction; (2) contentment; (3) positive affect; (4) social relationships; (5) freedom; and (6) the opposite of unhappiness. In addition, German respondents defined happiness in terms of (7) surprising events. The exact meaning content of the above-mentioned dimensions showed clear influences of individualism/collectivism. However, strong culture-specific factors, such as the influence of philosophical traditions, material living circumstances and linguistic influences, were also found.     

Verarmungsrisiken nach kritischen Lebensereignissen in Deutschland und den USA

We study how the impact of job loss, sickness, retirement, and family dissolution on the risk of relative income poverty differs between Germany and the United States, and whether the impact of these events has changed between 1980 and 2009. Americans are more likely than Germans to enter poverty after any of the four events, yet they also recover more quickly from job loss and family dissolution. Comparisons over time do not indicate a secular rise in the impact of critical life events on poverty risks, but our results show that poverty trajectories are subject to stronger cyclical fluctuations in the United States: Through its emphasis on market mechanisms, the liberal American welfare state raises the importance of (re-)employment opportunities for coping with the consequences of adverse life events. The absence of clear long-term trends leads to a reassessment of common views about welfare state change such as Jacob Hacker??s thesis of a ??Great Risk Shift?? or the notion of an ??Americanization?? of Continental European welfare states. So far, there is also little evidence that the often claimed recalibration of welfare states towards ??new social risks?? has alleviated the adverse economic consequences of family dissolution.     

The Identity‐Matching Principle: Corporate and Organizational Identification in a Franchising System*

This paper examines corporate and organizational identification in franchisee organizations from the perspective of the social identity approach. We propose the identity‐matching principle (IMP) as a heuristic for understanding and predicting the different effects of nested identifications. According to the IMP, when identifications and relevant behavioural or attitudinal outcomes address the same level of categorization, their relationship will be stronger. A study is presented with employees (n=281) matched to managers (n=101). Supporting the IMP, organizational identification (but not corporate identification) predicted customer‐oriented behaviour on the level of the local organization, whereas corporate identification (but not organizational identification) predicted attitude toward corporate citizenship behaviour. Furthermore, multilevel analyses showed that these relationships were enhanced in organizations where managers displayed the respective behaviours themselves to a greater extent. Implications for theorizing about leadership and organizational attachments are discussed alongside recommendations for organizational practitioners.     

“The troublesome other and I”: Parallel stories of separated parents in prolonged conflicts

This qualitative study aims to explore how noncohabiting parenting couples in prolonged conflict construct the other parent and themselves. Ten parents from five parent couples were interviewed. A dyadic analytical design was used, where parent's stories of conflict were analyzed in parallel with their co‐parent. Drawing on positioning theory, self‐identity as parents emerged as implicit counter positions in storylines, which construct the co‐parent as “the troublesome other.” Two typologies of conflicted storylines were prominent in the findings: storylines of violations of trust, positioning the co‐parents in relation to traumatic events in the past and, storylines of who is bad, positioning the co‐parent as either a disloyal co‐parent or a dysfunctional parent. The findings indicate that prolonged conflicts made it impossible to find available positions for cooperation. We argue that family therapists should aid each household toward promoting child and family resilience rather than continued efforts to solve chronic conflicts.     

Participation in risk sharing under ambiguity

Theory and Decision - This paper is about (non) participation in efficient risk sharing among agents who have ambiguous beliefs about uncertain states of nature. The question we ask is whether and...