Probabilistic Modeling of Flood Hazard and its Risk Assessment for Eastern Region of India

This article models flood occurrence probabilistically and its risk assessment. It incorporates atmospheric parameters to forecast rainfall in an area. This measure of precipitation, together with river and ground parameters, serve as parameters in the model to predict runoff and subsequently inundation depth of an area. The inundation depth acts as a guide for predicting flood proneness and associated hazard. The vulnerability owing to flood has been analyzed as social vulnerability $(V_S)$, vulnerability to property $(V_P)$, and vulnerability to the location in terms of awareness $(V_A)$. The associated risk has been estimated for each area. The distribution of risk values can be used to classify every area into one of the six risk zones—namely, very low risk, low risk, moderately low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. The prioritization regarding preparedness, evacuation planning, or distribution of relief items should be guided by the range on the risk scale within which the area under study falls. The flood risk assessment model framework has been tested on a real‐life case study. The flood risk indices for each of the municipalities in the area under study have been calculated. The risk indices and hence the flood risk zone under which a municipality is expected to lie would alter every day. The appropriate authorities can then plan ahead in terms of preparedness to combat the impending flood situation in the most critical and vulnerable areas.     

Economic analysis of demand uncertainty and delayed information sharing in a third-party managed supply chain

Designers and retailers in consumer products industry are faced with high demand volatility and potential loss of profit from design piracy. Many retailers rely on third-party supply chain managers (SCMs) to manage global supply chains. A SCM starts raw materials procurement and production process based on expected demand and takes financial risks associated with demand uncertainty. But a retailer often delays sharing product design information with SCM forcing it to expedite production and distribution processes incurring additional financial penalties. To analyse economic impact of delayed information sharing under uncertain demand, we develop a mathematical model. Our model indicates that higher demand volatility lessens the effect of penalty associated with delayed information sharing for retailers. The model also shows that for a given demand volatility, per-unit premium increases asymptotically for a retailer compared to marginal production cost increase for SCM. Such findings are not intuitive for SCMs or retailers.     

Bayesian analysis of generalized odds-rate hazards models for survival data

In the analysis of censored survival data Cox proportional hazards model (1972) is extremely popular among the practitioners. However, in many real-life situations the proportionality of the hazard ratios does not seem to be an appropriate assumption. To overcome such a problem, we consider a class of nonproportional hazards models known as generalized odds-rate class of regression models. The class is general enough to include several commonly used models, such as proportional hazards model, proportional odds model, and accelerated life time model. The theoretical and computational properties of these models have been re-examined. The propriety of the posterior has been established under some mild conditions. A simulation study is conducted and a detailed analysis of the data from a prostate cancer study is presented to further illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Analysis of cure rate survival data under proportional odds model

Due to significant progress in cancer treatments and management in survival studies involving time to relapse (or death), we often need survival models with cured fraction to account for the subjects enjoying prolonged survival. Our article presents a new proportional odds survival models with a cured fraction using a special hierarchical structure of the latent factors activating cure. This new model has same important differences with classical proportional odds survival models and existing cure-rate survival models. We demonstrate the implementation of Bayesian data analysis using our model with data from the SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database of the National Cancer Institute. Particularly aimed at survival data with cured fraction, we present a novel Bayes method for model comparisons and assessments, and demonstrate our new tool’s superior performance and advantages over competing tools.     

A JOINT ECONOMIC-LOT-SIZE MODEL FOR PURCHASER AND VENDOR

In a typical purchasing situation, the issues of price, lot sizing, etc., usually are settled through negotiations between the purchaser and the vendor. Depending on the existing balance of power, the end result of such a bargaining process may be a near-optimal or optimal ordering policy for one of the parties (placing the other in a position of significant disadvantage) or, sometimes, inoptimal policies for both parties. This paper develops a joint economic-lot-size model for a special case where a vendor produces to order for a purchaser on a lot-for-lot basis under deterministic conditions. The focus of this model is the joint total relevant cost. It is shown that a jointly optimal ordering policy, together with an appropriate price adjustment, can be beneficial economically for both parties or, at the least, does not place either at a disadvantage.     

Theory of mind and peer relationships: The role of social anxiety

Recent research has shown that individual differences in theory of mind (ToM) during middle childhood are linked with individual differences in children's peer relationships. The present longitudinal study investigated this association more deeply, exploring the potential mediating role played by children's social anxiety. We tested a group of 66 children (11.5 years old at Time 1) three times over one year after their transition to secondary school. Over and above language, SES and stability in individual differences, ToM performance shortly after starting secondary school (Time 1) predicted higher peer acceptance, as well as lower peer rejection, one year later (Time 3) via lower levels of social anxiety over time (Time 2). This study extends our knowledge about the links between social understanding and interpersonal relations in middle childhood. The results suggest that ToM may play an important role in children's adjustment when confronting new social contexts.     

On the representation of preference orders on sequence spaces

A set of sufficient conditions for representability of preference orders on real sequence spaces is analyzed. In particular, monotonicity and continuity of the order is not assumed. Two applications are worked out to demonstrate how such a result might be useful.     

A multidimensional Lorenz dominance relation

This paper seeks to extend the unidimensional notion of Lorenz dominance to the multidimensional context. It formulates a definition of a multidimensional Lorenz dominance relation (MLDR) on the set of alternative distributions of well-being in an economy by incorporating a generalization of the well-known transfer principle of unidimensional theory suggested in recent literature. It also proposes two conditions which an MLDR may reasonably be required to satisfy. The paper notes that the existing literature does not seem to contain an example of an MLDR satisfying these two conditions and suggests one that does. The suggested MLDR does not seem to have appeared in the literature before.     

Adolescent egocentrism and indoor tanning: is the relationship direct or mediated?

This paper explored how imaginary audience and personal fable ideations contribute to adolescent indoor tanning intentions directly and indirectly through the way they shape pro-tanning attitude and association with peers who use tanning beds. Five hundred and ninety-five male (n = 207) and female (n = 387) adolescents, ranging in age from 11 to 19 (M = 16.87; SD = 1.34) years completed a cross-sectional survey. Measures included imaginary audience, personal fable (three dimensions: invulnerability, uniqueness, and omnipotence), pro-tanning attitude, association with peers who use tanning beds, and tanning bed use intentions. Bootstrapping analyses documented that imaginary audience ideations are indirectly associated with indoor tanning intentions through the mediation of pro-tanning attitude and association with peers who use tanning beds. Of the personal fable ideations, only invulnerability ideation is indirectly associated with indoor tanning intentions through the mediation of association with peers who use tanning beds. Design and evaluation of interventions and campaigns to reduce indoor tanning must be targeted to adolescents varying in imaginary audience ideations differently.     

Decreasing the Recent Immigrant Earnings Gap: The Impact of Canadian Credential Attainment

It is well documented that newly arrived immigrants face a significant earnings gap relative to native‐born workers. One way for new immigrants to improve their relative labour market position upon arrival in a host country is to improve their educational credentials. According to signalling theory, a host‐country credential should provide employers with a proxy for true productivity on the job, leading to higher earnings. Using data from a Canadian longitudinal survey, we employ longitudinal growth‐curve techniques to estimate the effect of receiving a Canadian educational credential on the income growth of racial‐minority recent immigrants compared to native‐born Canadians. The results indicate that the earnings gap between recent immigrants and native‐born Canadians is significantly reduced with the attainment of a Canadian educational credential.