The Risk of a Mortality Catastrophe

We develop a continuous-time model for analyzing and valuing catastrophe mortality contingent claims based on stochastic modeling of the force of mortality. We derive parameter estimates from a 105-year time series of U.S. population mortality data using a simulated maximum likelihood approach based on a particle filter. Relying on the resulting parameters, we calculate loss profiles for a representative catastrophe mortality transaction and compare them to the “official” loss profiles that are provided by the issuers to investors and rating agencies. We find that although the loss profiles are subject to great uncertainties, the official figures fall significantly below the corresponding risk statistics based on our model. In particular, we find that the annualized incidence probability of a mortality catastrophe, defined as a 15% increase in aggregated mortality probabilities, is about 1.4%—compared to about 0.1% according to the official loss profiles.     

An extension of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition to nonlinear models

This paper develops a general Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition that allows the differences in an outcome variable between two groups to be decomposed into (i) a part that is explained by differences in observed characteristics and (ii) a part attributable to differences in the estimated coefficients also for nonlinear regression models. Based on this general model, we show how it can be applied to different models with discrete and limited dependent variables.     

The evolutionary diversity of urban forests depends on their land-use history

Urban Ecosystems - Urbanization leads to strong modifications of landscape structure and ecosystem functioning, and urban areas are spreading rapidly. The aim of this study was to investigate how...     

Mehr als nur Überleben — Anerkennung und Selbstbehauptung

More than survive — acknoledgement and self-assertiveness. Coaching for feministic researchers The need for coaching for feminist women academics arises from the unfavourable conditions of their employment at Universities. This relates, in particular, to the conditions which are important for professional ?power“ such as the need for acknowledgement and the opportunity for assertiveness. Group coaching for women, in this case, serves to strengthen women’s belief in themselves which then becomes a resource and a basis for self-assertiveness. Solidarity and a long-term career perspective are indispensable.     

The Use of In Situ Behavioral Skills Training to Improve Staff Implementation of the PEAK Relational Training System

The study evaluated the effectiveness of an in situ behavioral skills training program for training 3 direct care staff to implement the Promoting the Emergence of Advanced Knowledge Relational Training System (PEAK) with 3 individuals with autism. PEAK is an evidence-based behavior analytic language development curriculum that uses discrete trials to promote the emergence of language. The data suggest that behavioral skills training improved staff implementation of PEAK and resulted in a corresponding improvement in selected language skills across 2 of 3 learners with autism.     

Research and Identity: Role-efficacy,Benchmarking, and the Identity Construction Process

Abstract

In the spring of 2016, university students with little to no research experience volunteered to assist with surveying for a larger project on college success. Volunteers discussed their field experiences through written statements and semistructured interviews. Eighty log sheets and 14 in-depth interviews serve as the qualitative data for this study. We followed Braun and Clarke’s (2006) Thematic Analysis approach and reviewed the log sheets for key themes. Based on the initial analysis, semistructured standpoint interviews with student volunteers explored the development of a nascent research-based identity. Findings suggest that students’ research-based identity construction was a process that moved from low role-efficacy to emerging role-efficacy through the use of benchmarking and justification strategies that helped overcome negative emotions surrounding an initial sense of low role-efficacy with survey research tasks. We discuss how identity construction unfolded over time and suggest implications for this research.     

Whole Family Theraplay: Integrating Family Systems Theory and Theraplay to Treat Adoptive Families

This article regarding the effectiveness of Theraplay for the clinical treatment of adoptive families both outlines a model for integrating family systems theory with Theraplay to create a new approach entitled Whole Family Theraplay (WFT), as well as provides a preliminary report of a pilot study demonstrating the efficacy of that model. WFT integrates Theraplay with family systems approaches (Structural and Experiential Family Therapies) to treat parents and all the siblings within adoptive families. The findings indicate that WFT treatment may lead to statistically significant benefits in regard to family communication, adults’ interpersonal relationships, and children's overall behavioral functioning.     

Tactics to Ensure Durability of Behavior Change Following the Removal of an Intervention Specialist: A Review of Temporal Generality Within Organizational Behavior Management

The endurance of behavior change over time, including the time period after a behavior specialist has ceased to offer direct services, is an important consideration for both organizational behavior management and behavior analysis in general. This article considers a dozen strategies labelled temporal generality tactics that may foster the maintenance and institutionalization of intervention efforts in organizational settings. The use of such tactics was examined by conducting a comprehensive review of articles published between 1977 and 2014 in the Journal of Organizational Behavior Management. The results of this review suggest that although follow-up measures are frequently collected, explicit and proactive strategies to systematically increase the success of long-term behavior change are rarely used or researched.