PSYCHOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF BOUNDED RATIONALITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES

In this paper the implications of cognitive strain for decision-making effectiveness are explored. Literature concerning the psychological processes of decisionmakers which underlie the operation of cognitive strain and which predispose them to the effects of cognitive strain, is reviewed. Next, the impact of cognitive strain on narrowly constraining or “bounding” rational decision-making is examined, and the choice strategies of satisficing and incrementalizing are criticized as failing to broaden the bounds of rational decision-making. Finally, elements of an eclectic choice strategy designed to assist decision-makers handle the informational demands of complex decision problems are discussed.     

Elimination ofSitotroga cerealella (Olivier) bySitophilus zeamais Motschulsky from mixed laboratory cultures on maize

Summary This paper describes a series of experiments conducted to determine whySitophilus zeamais Mots. andSitotroga cerealella (Oliv.) could not survive together in maize cultures in the laboratory. The effect ofS. zeamais on different developmental stages ofS. cerealella was investigated. The presence of adultS. zeamais slightly affected moth copulation, egg laying and moth eggs in a mixed culture, but large numbers of developing moths inside maize grains were killed by the adult weevil through feeding on the grains. The major cause of elimination ofS. cerealella byS. zeamais from mixed cultures was therefore found to be damage to the immature moths in grain and such moth mortality increased as the developing moths became bigger in the grains. A weevil: grain ratio of approximately 1.4∶1 was found to be the critical weevil density at which the moth disappeared from the mixed cultures.     

Seasonal forcing on the dynamics ofClethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling geographic gradients in population dynamics

We interpret gradients in population dynamics of the gray-sided vole from the southwestern part of the island of Hokkaido to its northeastern part within the framework of a phenomenological model involving the relative length of summer and winter. In Hokkaido, as in other northern regions, both spring and fall is considered as short transition periods between the two main seasons — summer (the primary breeding season) and winter (the non-reproductive or secondary breeding season). We show that the geographic transition in dynamics may be understood as the combined consequence of different patterns of density-dependence during summer and winter, and geographically varying season lengths. Differences are shown to exist between summer and winter with respect to strength of density-dependence. Direct density-dependence, in particular, is stronger during winter than during summer. A model is presented to show how relative lengths of seasons can induce both stable and periodically fluctuating population dynamics. The results are compared and contrasted with what is otherwise known about the gradient in rodent dynamics in Fennoscandia.     

Effects of Group Practice of the Transcendental Meditation Program on Preventing Violent Crime in Washington,D.C.: Results of the National Demonstration Project,June--July 1993

This paper reports the results of a prospective experiment in which a group of approximately 4,000 participants in the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programs of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi assembled in Washington, D.C., from June 7 to July 30, 1993. It was hypothesized that levels of violent crime in the District of Columbia would fall substantially during the Demonstration Project, as a result of the group's effect of increasing coherence and reducing stress in the collective consciousness of the District. A 27-member Project Review Board comprising independent scientists and leading citizens approved the research protocol and monitored the research process. Weekly crime data was derived from database records provided by the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department (DCMPD), which are used in the FBI Uniform Crime Reports. Statistical analysis considered the effect of weather variables, daylight, historical crime trends and annual patterns in the District of Columbia, as well as trends in neighboring cities. Consistent with previous research, levels of homicides, rapes and assaults (HRA crimes) correlated with average weekly temperature. Robberies approximately followed an annually recurring cycle. Time series analysis of 1993 data, controlling for temperature, showed that HRA crimes dropped significantly during the Demonstration Project, corresponding with increases in the size of the group; the maximum decrease was 23.3% (p < 2 × 10–9) [24.6% using a longer baseline, with 1988--1993 data (p < 3 × 10–5)], coincident with the peak number of participants in the group during the final week of the assembly. When the same period in each of the five previous years was examined, no significant decreases in HRA crimes were found. Robberies did not decrease significantly. However, a model that jointly estimated the effect of the Demonstration Project on both HRA crimes and robberies showed a significant reduction in violent crimes overall of 15.6% (p = 0.0008). Further analysis showed that the effect of the coherence-creating group on reducing HRA crimes could not be accounted for by additional police staffing. The time series analysis for HRA crimes gave results that are highly robust to alternative model specifications, and showed that the effect of the group size was cumulative and persisted after the Demonstration Project ended. Also, calculation of the steady state gain based on the time series model predicted that a permanent group of 4,000 coherence-creating experts in the District would have a long-term effect of reducing HRA crimes by 48%.     

Estimation of the parameters of symmetric stable ARMA and ARMA–GARCH models

In this article, we first propose the modified Hannan–Rissanen Method for estimating the parameters of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with symmetric stable noise and symmetric stable generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) noise. Next, we propose the modified empirical characteristic function method for the estimation of GARCH parameters with symmetric stable noise. Further, we show the efficiency, accuracy and simplicity of our methods with Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, we apply our proposed methods to model the financial data.     

Preschoolers' Bistrategic Resource Control,Reconciliation, and Peer Regard

Bistrategic resource control entails using both coercive and prosocial strategies in competition for resources. The present study sought to clarify whether bistrategic involves more than simply using both strategies some of the time. Examining 88 preschoolers' coercion and prosociality over an entire school year, results showed that coercive resource control was used most frequently at the start of the school year, presumably to access resources and establish social dominance. Rates of prosocial resource control increased over the school year, and socially dominant preschoolers showed higher rates compared with peers, presumably to maintain resource control while keeping peers as allies. Socially dominant preschoolers also used reconciliation more often than peers, resulting in higher rates of affiliation between former competitors and more positive peer regard from fall to spring. Findings are discussed in terms of resource control theory and the importance of situating social behaviors within the behavioral and relationship context in which they are embedded.     

A pragmatic approach to experimental design in industry

The importance of statistically designed experiments in industry has been well recognized. However, the use of 'design of experiments' is still not pervasive, owing in part to the inefficient learning process experienced by many non-statisticians. In this paper, the nature of design of experiments, in contrast to the usual statistical process control techniques, is discussed. It is then pointed out that for design of experiments to be appreciated and applied, appropriate approaches should be taken in training, learning and application. Perspectives based on the concepts of objective setting and design under constraints can be used to facilitate the experimenters' formulation of plans for collection, analysis and interpretation of empirical information. A review is made of the expanding role of design of experiments in the past several decades, with comparisons made of the various formats and contexts of experimental design applications, such as Taguchi methods and Six Sigma. The trend of development shows that, from the realm of scientific research to business improvement, the competitive advantage offered by design of experiments is being increasingly felt.