The future of refugee flows and policies

"The number of forced migrants...is estimated today to exceed 40 million [worldwide]. The changed international climate of the 1990s...has shifted the focus from the asylum and resettlement countries to the countries of origin: there is today a greater willingness to intervene in other countries' affairs either to avert the creation of new flows of focused migrants or to assist internally displaced populations, and there is the expectation of large-scale voluntary returns of refugees in asylum. This article discusses these and other policy issues concerning forced migration in this new international environment."     

Refugees in Papua New Guinea: government response and assistance, 1984-1988

The refugee situation after the 1984 movement from Indonesia is examined in terms of policy implications and assistance as well as the welfare and education of refugees. Information was collected from government sources and documents and from households in camps and communities over a 3-month period and was published in a government report in February, 1988. This article provides a review of the border issues, resistance and exodus, reactions within Papua New Guinea, 1984-85 border crossings, social and demographic refugee profiles, government response, UN involvement, border refugee camp conditions, repatriation and relocation, reasons for the exodus, and relocation to and conditions in East Awin and the implications. This exodus from West Papua New Guinea (a region now called Irian Jaya) after Indonesia's take over in 1962 represents a unique situation, which also has lessons for other asylum seekers looking for refuge status in friendly neighboring countries. International agreements, such as the Geneva Convention and Protocol, can disrupt social networks and households when the relocation they permit is implemented. Full economic and social participation is hampered by a low quality provision of education and social services. The gain is in removing "destabilizing threats to the host state and society," at the expense of the economic and residential security of the migrants. Humanitarianism hides inequalities; internationalism, in this case, confirmed Indonesian sovereignty and large scale economic exploitation. An estimated 300,000 Melanesians have died since the take over, which amounts to 30% of the total population in 1970. Persecution was the reason for migration to Papua New Guinea; migration numbers are not accurate and range from the official 2000-3000 to 12,000 in 1984. Reactions to the migration have been mixed, and fear of the military might of Indonesia is real. The government was not prepared to cope with the scale of migration and had no plans for food relief, shelter, or medical assistance; the consequence for the refugees was death by starvation. Refugee camps were located along the border; the populations varied by camp. Some were 56% male or female, and 43% of the entire population were 15 years of age. 75% were dependent on subsistence crop production before leaving. Development assistance was dependent on refugee movement away from border areas, in this case to East Awin.     

European Community legislation and intergovernmental cooperation on migration

Recent trends in migration policy in the European Community are outlined. The focus is on the need to increase cooperation between the member states and to increase the power of the Community's Court of Justice in decision-making about migration and refugee policy.     

The spatial and socio-occupational mobility of the population

The author describes topics included in a study of spatial, social, and occupational mobility in Poland. These include rural migration, the effect of the family life cycle on migration, the social impact of migration, the effect of migration on spatial distribution, and migration prospects until the end of this century.     

Small populations of the north: their problems and how to solve them

The authors examine the present conditions of 26 small, isolated populations living in the north of Russia. The total size of the population under consideration is 181,600, according to the 1989 Soviet census. The conclusion is that these populations are under severe threat of extinction and that there is no consensus about how to resolve their present predicament.     

Stochastic modelling of regional annual rainfall anomalies in East Africa

ARIMA (p, d, q) models were fitted to areal annual rainfall of two homogeneous regions in East Africa with rainfall records extending between the period 1922–80. The areal estimates of the regional rainfall were derived from the time series of the first eigenvector, which was significantly dominant at each of the two regions. The first eigenvector accounted for about 80% of the total rainfall variance in each region.

The class of ARIMA (p, d, q) models which best fitted the areal indices of relative wetness/dryness were the A R M A (3, 1) models. Tests of forecasting skill however indicated low skill in the forecasts given by these models. In all cases the models accounted for less than 50% of the total variance.

Spectral analysis of the indices time series indicated dominant quasi-periodic fluctuations around 2.2–2.8 years, 3–3.7 years, 5–6 years and 10–13 years. These spectral bands however accounted for very low proportion of the total rainfall variance.     

Theory and techniques of demographic forecasting

This paper focuses on theories and techniques for forecasting fertility and mortality. Period and cohort analyses of fertility and mortality in Germany over the past century are first discussed. Alternative techniques for forecasting future trends in these variables in the Federal Republic of Germany are then outlined. The economic and social policy consequences of different mortality and fertility assumptions are also briefly noted.     

Researching in the Victorian censuses: a note on a computerized,annotated bibliography of publications based substantially on the census enumerators' books

The authors describe a project, begun in 1981, to locate, list, and annotate all the published work based substantially on the census enumerators' books for nineteenth-century censuses for England and Wales. The results are currently available in a computerized file, enabling a variety of searches by topic, geographical area, and type of population. Information is provided on using the data and the computerized bibliography. The authors note that, subsequently, data for censuses of Scotland and Ireland have been added.