Bayesian identifiability and misclassification in multinomial data

The authors consider the Bayesian analysis of multinomial data in the presence of misclassification. Misclassification of the multinomial cell entries leads to problems of identifiability which are categorized into two types. The first type, referred to as the permutation‐type nonidentifiabilities, may be handled with constraints that are suggested by the structure of the problem. Problems of identifiability of the second type are addressed with informative prior information via Dirichlet distributions. Computations are carried out using a Gibbs sampling algorithm.     

What was Bitcoin,what will it be? The techno-economic imaginaries of a new money technology

In its first decade, Bitcoin has not proven to be a practical money form for most circumstances, but it has become a staging ground for debate around the cultural role of money in society. This debate is poised between two related but ultimately incompatible techno-economic imaginaries: infrastructural mutualism and digital metallism. Each offers a theory not just of money, but also of relations, identities, and the larger imaginaries we call ‘society’ and ‘the economy’. In particular, they offer distinct visions of what it means to be a ‘peer’ in a peer-to-peer money system, and perhaps, a peer-to-peer society. This article traces the pre-history of Bitcoin, as well as more recent developments, to inquire about its future, as well as the future of money more broadly.     

The Quality of Pitches in Major League Baseball

This article considers the quality of pitches in Major League Baseball (MLB). Based on approximately 2.2 million pitches taken from the 2013, 2014, and 2015 MLB seasons, the quality of a particular pitch is evaluated as the expected number of bases conceded. Quality is expressed as a function of various covariates including pitch count, pitch location, pitch type, and pitch speed. The estimation of the pitch quality is obtained through the use of random forest methodology to accommodate the inherent complexity of the relationship between pitch quality and the associated covariates. With the fitted model, various applications are considered which provide new insights on pitching and batting.     

Pacific Islands Families Study: Factors associated with living in extended families one year on from the birth of a child*

Abstract

Using data from the “Pacific Islands Families: the first two years of life (PIF) study”, this paper explores the factors associated with the living arrangements of mothers with a one‐year‐old Pacific child. Three living arrangements are considered: (1) those children who live with immediate family members only; (2) children who live with extended family members including at least one of their grandparents; and (3) children who live with extended family members but do not live with any of their grandparents. Findings of interest include: mothers who were born in New Zealand are much more likely to live in an extended family with the child's grandparent(s) compared to those who came to New Zealand as an adult; and mothers with high New Zealand identity and low Pacific identity being more likely to live with extended family members other than the child's grandparent(s) relative to those with low New Zealand and high Pacific identity.     

Midlife Women Online: Evaluation of an Internet-Based Program to Prevent Unintended Pregnancy & STIs

Background: Midlife women are an underserved population in the areas of unintended pregnancy and STI prevention yet remain at risk for both health conditions. Methods: A randomized controlled trial of an Internet-based multimedia program to reduce risk of unintended pregnancy and STIs among midlife women was conducted with 164 women ages 40–55 years of age. Results: Women in the treatment condition compared to the control condition reported significant gains in attitudes, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions at posttest. Conclusion: Interventions specifically targeted to midlife women can impact constructs known to reduce risk. Implications for future research and intervention development are presented.     

Relationship of Perceived Culture Shock, Length of Stay in the U.S., Depression, and Self-Esteem in Elderly Russian-Speaking Immigrants

This article presents preliminary data on perceived culture shock (PCS), length of stay (LS), and depression in a sample of 29 Russian speaking elderly (age ranged 54 to 81, mean = 65.8). The average LS in the United States was 4 years, 8 months. Measurement of PCS was based on the number of irrational beliefs endorsed on the Perceived Culture Shock Inventory (PCSI) developed by the authors; level of depression was measured by Beck's Depression Inventory (BDI; Beck, Ward, Mendelson, Mock, & Erbaugh, 1961); self-esteem was measured by Culture-Free Self-Esteem Inventories—Second Edition (CFSEI-2; Battle, 1981). It was hypothesized that the LS would be negatively related to the level of depression, contingent upon the level of PCS. Path analysis was used to analyze the data. Results indicated that 38% of variance in level of depression was explained by combined effects of PCS (Beta = 0.597, p = 0.001) and LS (Beta = –0.063, p = 0.698). LS accounted for 2.6% of variance in self-esteem.     

Drawing inspiration from Bourdieu’s sociology of symbolic power

Theory and Society -     

A Stylometric Analysis of King Alfred's Literary Works

For centuries, Alfred the Great was judged to have translated several Latin texts into Old English. Many scholars, however, have expressed doubt whether Alfred could have done all of this work. With the availability of the Old English Corpus in electronic form, it is feasible to subject the texts to statistical stylometric analysis. We approach the problem from a Bayesian perspective where key words are identified and frequencies of the key words are tabulated for seven relevant texts. The question of authorship falls into the general statistical problem of classification where several simple innovations to classical agglomerative procedures are introduced. Our results suggest that one translation that has been traditionally attributed to Alfred (The First Fifty Prose Psalms) tends to distinguish itself from texts that are known to be Alfredian.