Revising a Prognostic Index Developed for Classification Purposes: an Application to Gastric Cancer Data

A prognostic index (PI) is usually derived from a regression model as a weighted mean of the covariates, with weights (partial scores) proportional to the parameter estimates. When a PI is applied to patients other than those considered for its development, the issue of assessing its validity on the new case series is crucial. For this purpose, Van Houwelingen (2000) proposed a method of validation by calibration, which limits overfitting by embedding the original model into a new one, so that only a few parameters will have to be estimated. Here we address the problem of PI validation and revision with the above approach when the PI has classification purposes and it represents the linear predictor of a Weibull model, derived from an accelerated failure time parameterization instead of a proportional hazards one, as originally described by Van Houwelingen. We show that the Van Houwelingen method can be applied in a straightforward manner, provided that the parameterization originally used in the PI model is appropriately taken into account. We also show that model validation and revision can be carried out by modifying the cut-off values used for prognostic grouping without affecting the partial scores of the original PI. This procedure can be applied to simplify the clinician's use of an established PI for classification purposes.     

DOING "REAL FAMILY VALUES":

This article considers how a social movement group in the Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, and Transgender (GLBT) movement engages in discursive contention with the Religious Right over the meaning of traditional family values. By utilizing an understanding of framing as interpretive practice, we return to a more active conceptualization of framing and illustrate how the meaning making of PFLAG (Parents, Families, and Friends of Lesbians and Gays), though bound by the dominant discourse of traditional family values, appropriates this discourse by doing "real family values." We close by considering how PFLAG's interpretive practice subverts and reproduces hegemonic meaning and by noting how our understandings of movement framing are extended by analyses of interpretive practice.     

Subjective Quality of Life Among Individuals who are Homeless: A Review of Current Knowledge

The purpose of this article was to review the current literature on subjective quality of life (SQOL) in individuals who are homeless, with a focus on differences in SQOL (a) between homeless individuals and the general population, (b) based on housing situation, and (c) associated with demographic characteristics (such as age and gender), physical and mental health, and external variables such as service program type. A literature search was conducted of the online databases PubMed and PsycInfo for relevant studies published from January 1981 to August 2011. Although this review showed that individuals who are homeless tended to have lower levels of SQOL compared to the general population or housed individuals, it was also evident that our current understanding of the relationships between SQOL and various demographic, health, and other variables is based on very limited information. More information about the relationships between various characteristics and experiences of individuals who are homeless and SQOL is clearly needed to aid researchers, service providers, and policy-makers in addressing the needs of this population and examining the effectiveness of interventions to end homelessness and improve health among homeless individuals.     

Sir Moses Montefiore's 1846 visit to Vil'na and its reflection in local maskilic literature

This article discusses the 1846 visit of the leading Anglo-Jewish figure Sir Moses Montefiore to Vil'na in the Russian Empire. Invited by leading figures of the city's Jewish community, Montefiore had a broader agenda at hand – the investigation of Jewish education in the empire. The visit had a profound and enduring effect on the Jews of Vil'na. This was reflected in the varying literary responses, especially among the city's maskilim. It forms the central theme of this article.     

“Mnandi-licious!” trends in African language usage in South African television advertising

Advertisements in African languages are generally confined to radio, and in that medium are factual, dialogic and direct. When used in television advertising, however, South Africa’s indigenous languages, particularly those spoken by the largest number of people in South Africa (Nguni languages), play a less informative role, being employed rather to index a concretised African essence, African identity or urban style, or a particular reified post-apartheid togetherness and cultural mobility. In this essay, we analyse four recent television advertisements, all using a Nguni language, and reflect on how and why the vernacular is used and to what extent African languages are no longer seen by television advertisers as carriers of information but as exploitable symbols of trustworthiness, multiculturalism, belonging and innovation. Key tropes that emerge as motivating the inclusion of African languages in television advertisements are identified and serve to organise and focus the argument.     

Quantifying Cyberinfrastructure Resilience against Multi‐Event Attacks

This article introduces a general approach for characterizing cyberinfrastructure resilience in the face of multiple malicious cyberattacks, such as when a sequence of denial‐of‐service attacks progressively target an already weakened information system. Although loss assessment frequently focuses on a single overall measure such as cost or downtime, the proposed technique considers both the timing and the amount of loss associated with each individual attack, as well as whether this loss is incurred suddenly or is “slow‐onset.” In support of this, an underlying mathematical model is developed to represent the relative impact of each attack and the corresponding length of time that its effects persist within the system, as well as to illustrate the trade‐offs between these two factors. The model is extended to represent uncertainty in its parameters and thus to support comparative analyses among various security configurations with respect to a baseline estimate of resilience. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to illustrate the model's capabilities and to support a discussion of its ability to provide for more effective decision making in the context of disaster planning and mitigation. [Submitted: March 21, 2011. Revised: July 14, 2011; November 4, 2011. Accepted: December 19, 2011.]     

Varying levels of anomie in Europe: a multilevel analysis based on multidimensional IRT models

Recent years have seen increased attention paid to monitoring social anomie and its dependency on micro- and macro-factors. In this paper, we endorse the theorisation of social anomie as a complex, multidimensional and multilevel phenomenon. To ensure a rigorous measurement of the varying levels of social anomie in the European countries, the current study relies on a multilevel multidimensional item response theory model which explicitly accounts for the presence of a non-ignorable missing data mechanism. This unified approach makes it possible to specify an analytical model of links between anomie features and their determinants and to explore how the latent traits of interest are influenced by individual-level factors, as well as by country-level indicators. Additionally, to avoid misleading inferential conclusions, the proposed model takes into account the respondent’s omitting behaviour, assuming that the missingness mechanism is driven by a latent propensity to respond. Data used in this study have been collected in the 2010 wave of the European Social Survey. To reduce the computational complexities, a Bayesian specification of the MIRT model is provided and the parameter model estimates are obtained through MCMC algorithms.     

Windows to the Soul? Deliberate Eye Contact as a Cue to Deceit

Although people overwhelmingly believe that liars avoid eye contact, meta-analyses of deception literature have shown a non-significant relationship between gaze and deception. In the present experiment we measured eye movements in an innovative way. We coded the extent to which interviewees deliberately made eye contact with the interviewer. Liars take their credibility less for granted than truth tellers. They therefore may have a greater desire to be convincing and hence more inclined to monitor the interviewer to determine whether they seem to be being believed. We therefore hypothesized that liars would give more appearance of deliberately making eye contact than truth tellers (a relationship which opposes the stereotypical belief that liars look away). A total of 338 passengers at an international airport told the truth or lied about their forthcoming trip. As well as the deliberate eye contact variable, we coded the amount of time the interviewees looked away from the interviewer (e.g., gaze aversion), which is typically examined in deception research. Liars displayed more deliberate eye contact than truth tellers, whereas the amount of gaze aversion did not differ between truth tellers and liars.     

Midwifery as established sect: an expanded application of the church–sect continuum

Based on church–sect theory, this paper asserts that midwifery is much like an established sect in relation to its church equivalent: Western medicine. We find that midwifery can endure in this form – as both protest movement and established institution – because of its ability to maintain its central oppositional values while being accepted as a legitimate, if marginalized, profession. Using interview data from 25 Florida midwives, we draw an analogy between the liminal status of midwifery and three of the most important characteristics of the established sect: limited institutionalization, acceptance and opposition, and a unique value set. This comparison sheds light on both church–sect theory and midwifery, which also leads us to suggest that similar analogies be used for analysis across other sub-fields in sociology.