Some non-parametric tests for duration dependence: an application to UK business cycle data

A distinction between Fisher's implied data-generating process for Monte Carlo cycles and the more general Markov process leads to non-parametric tests for duration dependence. Tests are based on the method of moments, Tauchen's generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure, and a statistic whose null distribution probability limit is zero. Using finite-sample critical values obtained by Monte Carlo methods, our test results are remarkably consistent. The null distribution of the GMM test statistic for samples of the size considered is distinctly non-normal, so that asymptotic critical values give erroneous results. The tests are applied to UK business cycle data for 1854-1992. There is evidence for duration dependence in expansions but not in contractions.     

Cross‐Cultural Differences in Risk Perceptions of Disasters

Public risk perceptions of mass disasters carry considerable influences, both psychologically and economically, despite their oft‐times imprecise nature. Prior research has identified the presence of an optimistic bias that affects risk perception, but there is a dearth of literature examining how these perceptions differ among cultures—particularly with regard to mass disasters. The present study explores differences among Japanese, Argentinean, and North American mental health workers in their rates of the optimistic bias in risk perceptions as contrasted between natural disasters and terrorist events. The results indicate a significant difference among cultures in levels of perceived risk that do not correspond to actual exposure rates. Japanese groups had the highest risk perceptions for both types of hazards and North Americans and Argentineans had the lowest risk perceptions for terrorism. Additionally, participants across all cultures rated risk to self as lower than risk to others (optimistic bias) across all disaster types. These findings suggest that cultural factors may have a greater influence on risk perception than social exposure, and that the belief that one is more immune to disasters compared to others may be a cross‐cultural phenomenon.     

Homelessness, Mental Illness and Citizenship

Assertive mental health outreach to homeless persons, which operates under the premise that mental illness must be understood and treated within the individual's social and economic environment, points towards the goals of community membership and 'citizenship'—a connection to the rights, responsibilities, roles, and resources that society offers through public and social institutions and informal 'associational life'—for homeless persons. We argue that the concept of citizenship is a useful framework for approaching these goals. We review the principles of assertive mental health outreach and relevant aspects of contemporary citizenship theory; present a case example of outreach leading to a 'citizenship project'; and discuss the potential benefits and pitfalls of a citizenship framework, including strategies and recommendations for program administrators, researchers and policy makers.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Duration Dependence in Militarized Interstate Disputes

A militarized interstate dispute (MID) involves military conflict between states with diplomatic ties and exists because two or more states have failed to resolve their differences through diplomatic channels. Jones et al. (1996) characterize an MID as the threat, display or use of military force short of war. They analyze over 2000 disputes spanning two centuries across the globe and conclude that disputes tend to be persistent once established. In this paper, I find that the passage of time can be a favorable factor in dispute resolution, and thus historical mechanisms for dispute resolution favor ending, not extending, militarized disputes. I emphasize the use of non-parametric procedures first to estimate the hazard function and then to estimate the benefits of negotiated settlements.     

Whose Advice is Credible? Claiming Lay Expertise in a Covid-19 Online Community

Qualitative Sociology - During the initial months of the Covid-19 pandemic, credentialed experts—scientists, doctors, public health experts, and policymakers—as well as members of the...     

To Join or Not to Join: Gay-Straight Student Alliances and the High School Experiences of Lesbian,Gay, Bisexual,and Transgender Youths

This retrospective study investigates 79 lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) college students’ experiences attending high schools with gay-straight student alliances (GSAs). Responses to two, open-ended survey questions were analyzed thematically to identify reasons that underlie GSA non-membership and to model facets of GSAs that may impact the GSA-related experiences of LGBT youths. Three frames of reference for understanding GSA non-membership and perceptions of GSAs emerged. Implications for predicting GSA membership and identifying protective mechanisms of GSAs are outlined. Suggestions to help GSA leaders and advisors enhance specific aspects of GSAs that appear to be associated with positive perceptions of GSAs are also provided.     

Father's involvement in the lives of children in foster care

Limited understandings exist about non‐resident fathers' views of their involvement with their children in foster care placements. Guided by the ecological systems framework, the purpose of this exploratory study was to gain insights into fathers' perceptions of their involvement with a child in foster care. Data were collected from demographic questionnaires and two focus groups with 17 men. Fathers expressed how kinship compared with non‐kinship placements affected their involvement. Fathers were also in agreement that their financial hardships were a significant factor affecting their involvement. Several fathers also reported how they experienced discrimination in the child welfare system as men. Surprisingly, uncommon to findings from other studies, few men viewed the child's mother as being a barrier to their involvement. The findings provide insights into factors requiring attention to help non‐residential fathers become involved with their children.