The Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Advance Mailings in a Telephone Survey

Advance letters are being used increasingly to combat the declinein response rates, but their effectiveness depends partly ontheir being read. In the face of the post-9/11 anthrax mailingscare, the Office for Survey Research (OSR) converted to usingadvance postcards rather than advance letters. Subsequently,the OSR conducted an experiment to test the effectiveness ofsending letters, postcards, or nothing to directory-listed numbersselected in a large random digit dial (RDD) telephone survey.In terms of response rates, the results clearly indicate thatsending advance letters is more effective than sending postcards,which, in turn, is more effective than sending nothing. A detailedcost-effectiveness evaluation indicates that sending lettersactually saves money, despite the increased costs associatedwith the mailings, compared to sending postcards; sending postcardsis also more cost-effective than not sending anything.     

Migration differentials by education and occupation: Trends and variations

The effects of education on current migration propensities in the United States are examined for each age group, and an estimate is made of how these age-specific differentials cumulate over a lifetime in determining the number of times that individuals at different educational levels can expect to move over the course of their lives. The independent effects of age, education, and occupation are also examined. Two other sections investigate trends in educational selectivity of migration in the United States and international comparisons of occupational differences in migration.     

Fertility patterns among religious groups in Canada

The U shape that has been traced out by the crude birth rate in the United States and Canada is well known. Falling birth rates reached a low point in the mid-1930’s; the rate rose to a peak in 1947 and remained high through the 1950’s. In terms of cohorts, completed family size was smallest for women born around 1910, whose childbearing was concentrated in the 1930’s. With data from the 1961 census of Canada, trends in cohort marital fertility by religion are examined. The U pattern appears for both Protestants and Jews. For Catholics, a reversal in the downward trend of family size had not appeared by 1961, although the U pattern can be discerned for some subgroups such as Catholics living in big cities and persons of Irish ancestry. In the United States, however, changes in family size for all three religious groups and both whites and nonwhites follow the U pattern. Religious differentials in family size in Canada have been decreasing, but they remain much larger than either religious or color differentials in the United States, which show no decrease. The distinctive features of Catholic fertility in Canada are most pronounced among the regionallyconcentrated French Canadians, suggesting an interplay of religious, regional, and ethnic influences.     

What’s happening to the family? Interactions between demographic and institutional change

As soon as men and women … acquire the habit of weighing the individual advantages and disadvantages of any prospective course of action … they cannot fail to become aware of the heavy personal sacrifices that family ties and especially parenthood entail under modern conditions. (Schumpeter 1988/1942, pp. 501–502)     

A Psychometric Analysis of Field Evaluation Instruments Designed to Measure Students’ Generalist-Level Social Work Competencies

ABSTRACT

There is a dearth of research on the evaluation of the psychometric performance of instruments designed to measure students’ generalist-level social work competencies. There is also uncertainty on the performance of various response option formats used to measure students’ competencies in assessment instruments. Using a sample of 198 master of social work students and 198 field instructors, the current study employs confirmatory factor analysis to assess the psychometric performance of a field evaluation instrument designed to measure students’ generalist-level social work competencies. The results provide evidence to support the validity and reliability of the instrument. The results also highlight nuances associated with a 5-point response option format for items used to measure competency indicators. Implications, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.     

Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events

This paper suggests a behavioral definition of (subjective) ambiguity in an abstract setting where objects of choice are Savage‐style acts. Then axioms are described that deliver probabilistic sophistication of preference on the set of unambiguous acts. In particular, both the domain and the values of the decision‐maker's probability measure are derived from preference. It is argued that the noted result also provides a decision‐theoretic foundation for the Knightian distinction between risk and ambiguity.     

Labor Utilization Effects of Labor Scheduling Flexibility Alternatives in a Tour Scheduling Environment

This study used a factorial experimental design and a new modeling methodology to investigate the impact of a number of labor scheduling flexibility alternatives and labor requirements characteristics on labor utilization within a tour scheduling environment. Break-placement flexibility and shift-length flexibility were found to be extremely effective in improving labor utilization for all labor requirement distributions used. Flexibility with respect to the number of days included in a tour schedule resulted in substantial improvement in labor utilization for all labor requirements distributions exhibiting daily and/or weekly variation. Surprisingly, virtually no improvement in labor utilization was achieved for any labor requirement distribution by the removal of requirements for consecutive days off. In addition, almost no improvement was found by allowing the shift start time to vary across the working days included in tours. High labor requirement amplitude was found to have a strong adverse effect on labor utilization while longer operational days were associated with improved labor utilization for all labor requirement distributions. We discuss the implications of these results for service operations management and provide suggestions for future research.     

Planning for a university,using interactive forecasting

The benefits of programme review, forward planning and control have been demonstrated at the university-wide level. Within a faculty or department, there is also a clear need for developing and using planning methods which are rationally based and forward looking if appropriate responses to changing social and academic trends are to be made. This paper delineates a number of planning and control variables encountered at the faculty or departmental level, describes the development and use of a computer-based interactive forecasting model, and discusses the advantages and limitations of such models in planning a faculty's progress toward its goals.     

Unmarried Motherhood: Recent Trends,Composition, and Black-White Differences

The National Survey of Family Growth (1982) is used to examine the extent to which racial differences in premarital birth rates can be explained by differences in parents' socioeconomic status, family structure, and residential characteristics. The findings document a large diversity in premarital births within both populations. Black women from high-risk backgrounds are three times more likely to have a premarital birth than black women from low-risk backgrounds. Racial differences in premarital births arise because (1) black women are more likely to come from high-risk backgrounds and (2) black women from low-risk backgrounds are more likely to have a premarital birth than white women with similar characteristics. There are similar rates of premarital births by race among persons from high-risk backgrounds.     

The impact of Indian gaming on crime in New Mexico: A research note

The complexity of the relationship between gambling and crime make empirical establishment of a relationship between the two difficult. Focusing on one state, we examine the impact of Indian gaming on crime in New Mexico. Specific crime rates in New Mexico counties with tribal gaming are discussed. Comparisons of the rates of specific crimes are made between New Mexico counties with tribal gaming and those without.