An agent-based model for evaluating reforms of the National Flood Insurance Program: A benchmarked model applied to Jamaica Bay,NYC

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integrate the dynamic adaptive behavior of homeowners within a flood risk modeling framework. Focusing on building-level adaptation and flood insurance, the agent-based model (DYNAMO) is benchmarked with empirical data for New York City, USA. The model simulates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and frequently proposed reforms to evaluate their effectiveness. The model is applied to a case study of Jamaica Bay, NY. Our results indicate that risk-based premiums can improve insurance penetration rates and the affordability of insurance compared to the baseline NFIP market structure. While a premium discount for disaster risk reduction incentivizes more homeowners to invest in dry-floodproofing measures, it does not significantly improve affordability. A low interest rate loan for financing risk-mitigation investments improves the uptake and affordability of dry-floodproofing measures. The benchmark and sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the behavioral component of our model matches empirical data and provides insights into the underlying theories and choices that autonomous agents make.     

On the Changing Civic Landscape in Denmark and its Consequences for Civic Action

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Throughout the past three decades, changing governments in Denmark have been cultivating a more proactive role for civil...     

The flight from universalism

Up to the beginning of the 1990s Sweden had been considered a paragon welfare state in its realisation of universalist principles and an institutional welfare model. This seems to be changing rapidly. Mass unemployment, welfare expenditure cuts and institutional transformation have introduced several selective mechanisms into the Swedish welfare system, adding up to a retreat from universalism. New forms of selectivity can be seen in all layers of the welfare system, both transfer benefits and social security, public personal social services and the relation between state and voluntary organisations. The shifting of burdens from universal social security and insurance-based welfare onto local means tested systems has already meant a restigmatisation of unemployment, as the unemployed lose eligibility for the insurance-based systems, and an increase in the proportion of people who have to rely on poor relief instead of rights-based welfare, and when unemployment has gone up, so have work requirements for benefits. A rising proportion of labour market programmes are now municipally organised obligations instead of state administered rights. Conditioning the right to day care, appraising needs-tested services for the elderly, like home help and care, make personal social services change in the same directions. This may endanger the classical alliance between women and the welfare state.     

Home Alone: Children as Caretakers in León,Nicaragua

This article seeks to explore and understand the life situations of sibling caretakers in poor areas in León, Nicaragua. The every day lives for caretakers were studied through observations and interviews with children, informants and parents. The children themselves were satisfied and proud to be trusted as caretakers and felt useful in contributing to their families’ livelihood. However, in a life course perspective the caretaking role implies a narrowing of life options. Early on they seem to acquire essential life skills but as they grow older many are at risk of falling behind due to their marginalised situation and lack of basic education.     

A dynamic random-effects model for recovery of skin barrier function: evaluation of the efficacy of different skin care products

Apparently, the use of mathematical and statistical models to describe the structure and function of the skin barrier is rather limited. The skin barrier protects the body against uncontrolled loss of water and desiccation, and prevents environmental substances from entering the skin. A simple measure of the barrier function is the transepidermal water loss (TEWL), which is easy to measure. Healthy skin has low TEWL values, whereas various skin diseases result in high TEWL values and eventually in the development of dry skin. The use of skin care products can protect and prevent dry skin. In this study several different trial formulations are compared with respect to their abilities as skin care products. The study is performed as a longitudinal study on mice, where the skin barrier is broken by means of acetone and then treated with one of the formulations. We analysed the data by means of a semimechanistic random-effects model with similarities to pharmacokinetic models. In the model each formulation is characterized by two parameters: one that corresponds to the initial barrier restoration effect and one that corresponds to the elimination rate.     

Neighbourhood effects on young people's future living conditions: Longitudinal findings from Sweden

Brännström L. Neighbourhood effects on young people's future living conditions: longitudinal findings from Sweden Using extensive longitudinal data for three Swedish birth cohorts born in the late 1970s, this study asked whether the social characteristics of the neighbourhood affect future outcomes that are important for their living conditions (labour‐market participation, economic hardship and criminality). To assist decision‐making about the balance between area‐targeted policies and wider form of social interventions at the individual level, this study also assessed whether the estimated impact of neighbourhood context has any bearing on the effect of preventive interventions directed at distressed neighbourhoods. The overall findings suggest that there is no clear evidence that the impact of neighbourhood varies sufficiently between the different types of neighbourhoods when selection and other confounding factors have been taken into consideration. It is concluded that the estimated effect of neighbourhood on youth development does not underpin area‐targeted policies directed at distressed neighbourhoods.     

The employment service and vacancy durations

In the literature, there are few examples of studies analyzing the impact of labor market programs on vacancies. This article presents the results of a study of the impact of personnel increase at Swedish employment offices on vacancy durations. The evaluation method in the study is quasi-experimental. The main results of the study are as follows: (a) The increase of employment office staff members reduced their vacancy durations by approximately 2 days, and the probability that a vacancy is cancelled from the register is 1.17 times higher for the program offices; and (b) this effect is too small for the increase of staff members to represent a socially efficient use of resources and for a positive outcome in a public finance context.     

Intercourse debut age: poor resources, problem behavior, or romantic appeal? a population-based longitudinal study

The most important predictors of early intercourse debut are reported to be poor social resources and early developing problem behaviors. In this study we have a new, additional emphasis on variables related to self-concept and social acceptance. In a population-based longitudinal study, 1399 Norwegians were followed over a 7-year span. We analyzed data using multivariate Cox-regression techniques. Early intercourse debut was part of a broader spectrum of problem behaviors, including early alcohol intoxication and early-developing conduct problems. A new finding was that a positive self-concept in the domain of romantic appeal was also a strong predictor, but only for boys. We suggest that the findings may have important implications for prevention and more research should be conducted along this line.     

Asymptotic spacings theory with applications to the two-sample problem

The asymptotic distribution theory of test statistics which are functions of spacings is studied here. Distribution theory under appropriate close alternatives is also derived and used to find the locally most powerful spacing tests. For the two-sample problem, which is to test if two independent samples are from the same population, test statistics which are based on “spacing-frequencies” (i.e., the numbers of observations of one sample which fall in between the spacings made by the other sample) are utilized. The general asymptotic distribution theory of such statistics is studied both under the null hypothesis and under a sequence of close alternatives.