完全检查下预防维修模型建立及案例分析

为了解决维修间隔期确定的难题,建立了维修间隔期和总停机时间之间关系的目标函数,以及时间延迟维修模型.根据故障记录数据和预防维修活动的检查数据,采用最大似然法估计有关缺陷发生率和时间延迟分布等参数.在所建立目标函数和估计参数的基础上,计算出最优的维修间隔期.     

Place making,grassroots organizing,and rural protest: A case study of Anahim Lake,British Columbia

Contemporary rural social movements bring diverse interest groups and stakeholders together at the local scale in the pursuit of common visions and goals, often against the backdrop of an external threat. The challenge for a movement's leaders is to negotiate and design a rural agenda that resonates with this complex constituency. One way to approach this problem is to construct and politicize a local sense of place as a means of rallying insiders against outside forces and pressures. This article explores the place-making activities of rural leaders operating within a complex social setting through an analysis of a grassroots social movement in Anahim Lake, British Columbia. The study uses the concept of the “place frame” to explore how Anahim's activists created a local discursive framework that enabled them to bridge dissimilar environmental values and practices within the community. The removal of external pressures following protest, however, saw the dissolution of this alignment. In documenting this process, the article contributes to a fuller understanding of the significance of place in grassroots protest and activism.     

The Jackknife estimate of covariance of two Kaplan–Meier integrals with covariables

In this paper the Jackknife estimate of covariance of two Kaplan–Meier integrals with covariates is introduced. Its strong consistency is established under mild conditions. Several applications of the estimator are discussed.     

Expanded renal transplantation: a competing risk model approach

Multi-state models (MSMs) are useful to analyze survival data when, besides the event of main interest, one or more intermediate states of the individual are identified. These models take the several existing states and the possible transitions among them into account. At the same time, covariate effects on each transition intensity may be investigated separately and, therefore, MSMs are more flexible than the standard Cox proportional hazards model. In this work, we use MSMs to investigate the impact of the quality of a transplanted kidney for a group of patients at the Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias. Specifically, we use an illness-death model to study the evolution of patients with kidney disease who received a renal transplant after a dialysis period. The intermediate state is defined as the failure of the received organ, while the terminating state is the death of the patient. In order to increase the potential number of organs available for transplant, the standards of quality for the transplanted kidneys were relaxed (the new criteria are labeled expanded criteria), and these ‘expanded kidneys’ were transplanted in appropriate candidates (older patients, with higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus). Results suggest that the expanded kidneys have a minor effect on survival, while both the kidney mortality and the risk of death increase with the patient's age and the serum creatinine and serum hemoglobin levels.     

Small Area Estimation Using Estimated Population Level Auxiliary Data

Unit level linear mixed models are often used in small area estimation (SAE), and the empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) is widely used for the estimation of small area means under such models. However, EBLUP requires population level auxiliary data, atleast area specific aggregated values. Sometimes population level auxiliary data is either not available or not consistent with the survey data. We describe a SAE method that uses estimated population auxiliary information. Empirical results show that proposed method for SAE produces an efficient set of small area estimates.     

Ethnicity as a risk indicator for musculoskeletal disease, long consultation times and care utilization A prospective visitor study of 438 consecutive adult consultations of a primary health care centre

This article shows the influence of ethnicity (people born outside Sweden and in Sweden) and social class (socioeconomic class) on the distribution of diagnoses, consultation time and health care utilization in primary health care controlled for sex, age, marital status and educational level. The study was designed as a prospective primary health care utilization study during 7 consecutive weeks. Of a total of 439 adults who lived in the residential area, 290 were born in Sweden and 149 were born elsewhere. The data were analysed unmatched with logistic regression and Poisson regression in main effect models. People born outside Sweden received significantly more diagnoses per consultation than people born in Sweden. The strongest independent risk indicator for musculoskeletal disease was being born outside Sweden, with an estimated odds ratio (OR) of 5.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.70–8.72. Age over 44 was associated with increased odds for musculoskeletal disease. Respiratory disease, as an indicator of less serious disease, were significantly less common among people born outside Sweden (OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.33–0.87). Being born outside Sweden was a risk indicator for consultations longer than 30 minutes (OR = 3.03, 95% CI=1.18–7.43). There were no differences between people born in Sweden and those born elsewhere in health and utilization. Social class was not associated with any of the dependent variables.     

Physician-sponsored networks. Will physicians take back medicine?

Until about the late 1980s, American physicians and their allies, hospitals and the health care manufacturing industries, dominated all facets of the health system--the clinical, the economic, and the political. The bulk of these providers' revenue flowed to them from a highly fragmented insurance system whose governing principle was to provide each insured patient free choice of doctor and hospital. Two distinct, concurrent shifts threaten to erode the medical profession's traditional dominance. The first is a rapid, general shift of control from the supply side of the health sector to its demand side. The second is a shift away from government control, over which organized medicine held much sway in the past, toward private regulators--the executives of the managed care industry. Is the trend towards greater dependence of practicing physicians on non-physician executives inevitable, or can physicians retain--and, in part, regain--their hitherto autonomous position in the health system?     

人是思维运动的唯一主体

思维运动主体不是人脑，而是从事社会实践的人。近代形而上学唯物主义把人脑看作是思维运动的主体，虽然肯定了思维运动主体的物质性，但却忽视了它的社会实践性。马克思主义哲学从实践出发理解现存世界和人的思维，把实践看作“人的思维的最本质和最切近的基础”，将从事社会实践活动的人确立为思维运动的主体，从而在思维运动主体上实现了物质性、实践性和社会性三者的有机统一。