Fertility Changes Among Immigrants: Generations,Neighborhoods, and Personal Characteristics*

Objective. To understand how adaptation/assimilation, disruption, and diffusion interact to produce changes in fertility levels among successive generations of Mexicans and Central Americans in the United States. Method. Using restricted access data that link individual data (CPS) to neighborhood data (census tracts), we examine the role of generation, personal characteristics, and neighborhood characteristics in determining children ever born (CEB). Results. There are significant differences in fertility across generations and, to a lesser extent, between women who live in ethnic enclaves and those who do not. Once personal characteristics are considered, the independent effect of generation on fertility is nearly eliminated. Personal characteristics dominate neighborhood characteristics in their ability to predict fertility. The most consistent predictor of CEB at the neighborhood level is the percentage of Hispanic adults. Conclusions. Personal characteristics dominate fertility change across generation, and were it not for increases in educational attainment, fertility might be higher in successive generations rather than lower or unchanged.     

Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

Teachers' role in the primary prevention of child abuse dilemmas and problems

During the 1980s, many school-based primary prevention programmes were developed and adopted by schools. Much of the early enthusiasm which greeted these programmes dissipated in the light of often disappointing evaluations of the impact of the programmes on children. It is argued, however, that evaluating student outcomes should not occur before theextent of programme utilization is established. In this paper, an overview is given on the dilemmas and problems faced by teachers attempting to implement a primary prevention programme in South Australia. It is revealed that teachers selectively omit sections of the primary prevention programme as a way of resolving personal dilemmas presented by the programme. Some teachers are sensitive about teaching personal and controversial issues related to child abuse, while others deny the seriousness of child abuse in theirschool. The implications of the findings are that: (a) it cannot be assumed that primary prevention programmes are implemented by teachers in ways that are consistent with programme design; (b) teachers' personal beliefs, attitudes and feelings need to be addressed in any school-based primary prevention initiative; (c) training approaches and school support mechanisms need to focus on methods by which teachers can resolve the dilemmas raised by school-based primary prevention programmes in ways other than by radically dismembering the programme.     

Portfolio assessment in a collaborative program evaluation: the reliability and validity of a family literacy portfolio

Evaluations increasingly use open-ended assessments, such as portfolios, to gather information about program impact. Portfolios, however, present challenges in achieving acceptable levels of reliability and often lack evidence to support validity. This article describes the components of a portfolio assessment system developed in a collaborative evaluation of a family literacy program. Staff of a family literacy program and two evaluators collaborated to develop the assessment and the tools that frame the review of the portfolios. Rubrics, exemplar portfolios, portfolio logs, and lists of ‘look-fors’ were developed to guide raters in the scoring and to improve the reliability of scores and validity of decisions about the program. Inter-rater reliability for the portfolio assessment was 0.79 for holistic scores and 0.74 for analytic scores. With respect to validity, holistic and analytic scores correlated with criterion measures from 0.50 to 0.59, providing initial evidence of a common construct.     

FACILITATING INTIMACY: INTERVENTIONS AND EFFECTS

The Present study investigated by effects of two sets of marital interventions taken from Emotionally Focused Therapy (EFT) and Cognitive Marital Therapy (CMT) on level of marital intimacy, dyadic trust, and dyadic adjustment. It was hypothesized that both EFT and CMT would have a positive effect on levels of intimacy, trust, and adjustment as compared to a wait-list control group and that there would be a differential effect in favor of EFT as compared to CMT. Thirty-six couples free of marital distress and seeking to enhance theor intimate relationship were randomaly assigned to EFT, CMT, or a wai-list control group. Therapists' interventions were monitored and found to be faithfully implemented. Groups were equivalent on demographic variables and the quality of the therapeutic alliance. Both EFT and CMT group posttest means were found to be significantly higher than controls on the self-report measures of intimacy, Observational measures of intimacy revealed differential effects in favor of EFT as comopared to CMT at posttest. At a 10-week follow-up, EFT group means were significantly higher than CMT on self-reported intimacy and adjustment.     

DEREGULATION AND THE RELIGIOUS MARKET IN TAIWAN: A Research Note

The religious economy model predicts that when encountered with competition, loosely organized religions will fail or will be transformed into congregational religions. Over time, competition will drive congregational religions to establish an extended relationship with their consumers by generating exclusivist claims and exclusivist socialization. And thus exclusive religion tends to occupy the biggest market share. This model, however, has rarely been tested empirically. By analyzing religious trends in Taiwan after the deregulation of the late 1980s, we find that state suppression contributed to the weakness of organized religion while enhancing the popularity of unchurched congregational religions in Taiwan. We also find that deregulation is associated with the rise of organized and congregational faiths. But whether or not these newly organized religions become exclusive or not needs further studies. Implications of the findings for future research are offered.     

Two‐Wave Panel Analysis: Comparing Statistical Methods for Studying the Effects of Transitions

Study of the effect of transitions on individual and family outcomes is central to understanding families over the life course. There is little consensus, however, on the appropriate statistical methods needed to study transitions in panel data. This article compares lagged dependent variable (LDV) and change score (CS) methods for analyzing the effect of events in two‐wave panel data. The methods are described, and their performances are compared both with a simulation and a substantive example using the National Survey of Families and Households two‐wave panel. The results suggest that CS methods have advantages over LDV techniques in estimating the effect of events on outcomes in two‐wave panel data.