Complex Thinking and Computing Organization Facing Contingent Problems

Public Organization Review - Facing the reflexive modernity, social wealth production is systematically correlated with the production of social and technical problems. Due to the complexity...     

Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve

In this article, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields and are well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.     

Approximate Bayesian computation with composite score functions

Both approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood score functions as summary statistics in ABC in order to obtain accurate approximations to the posterior distribution. This is motivated by the use of the score function of the full likelihood, and extended to general unbiased estimating functions in complex models. Moreover, we show that if the composite score is suitably standardised, the resulting ABC procedure is invariant to reparameterisations and automatically adjusts the curvature of the composite likelihood, and of the corresponding posterior distribution. The method is illustrated through examples with simulated data, and an application to modelling of spatial extreme rainfall data is discussed.     

Association of sexual abstinence in adolescence with mental health in adulthood

We examined whether adolescent sexual abstinence predicts better adult mental health. 1,917 adolescents, recruited from middle schools at age 13, were surveyed at ages 13, 18, 23, and 29. In bivariate analyses, adolescent sexual abstinence was associated with better mental health at age 29 for females, but not males; three adolescent factors, educational prospects, family bonding, and unconventionality were investigated as explanatory variables of this relationship. The abstinence-mental health relationship was nonsignificant when educational prospects was included in multivariate models, and marginally significant when family bonding and unconventionality were included; all three explanatory factors accounted for significant proportions of the variance in adult mental health. Girls who are uninvolved in school, have weak family backgrounds, and exhibit unconventionality may have poor adult mental health, whether or not they abstain from sex in adolescence. Interventions that strengthen adolescents' connections to families and schools may reduce risk for long-term mental health problems.     

Home study methods for evaluating prospective resource families: history, current challenges, and promising approaches

Every state requires a home study before the placement of foster children for adoption. This article examines the history of home studies, presents results from expert interviews on the changing processes and purposes of home studies, and explores current challenges for the field. The article also introduces the Structured Analysis Family Evaluation (SAFE), a uniform home study format that encourages consistent family evaluations across workers, agencies, and jurisdictions. The article clarifies how SAFE may address challenges facing foster care and adoption practice.     

Growing up on the sidelines: identity negotiations of Palestinian youth from ‘collaborating’ families relocated to Israel

By examining the experiences of the children of Palestinian collaborators whose families have relocated to Israel, this study explores how youth negotiate self within the context of marginalisation and cultural dislocation. Due to the actions of their parents, the research participants have become outsiders and outcasts in their Palestinian communities of origin, outsiders in Israel, and outsiders among Israeli-Arabs. Based on qualitative, in-depth interviews with 11 Palestinian male youths, we describe and analyse the experience of identity negotiation in the context of fear and their families’ past deceit. Our findings highlight that the youths’ identities are negotiated by engaging in a dialogue of self on belonging and not belonging that is based on visions of their past, present and future selves. This is accompanied by a forced dialogue with others, explaining who they are in order to fit in with the ‘audience’, a presentation that is then acted out.     

The Indirect Effect of Child Maltreatment Severity on Adult PTSD Symptoms through Anxiety Sensitivity

Although the rate of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among survivors of child maltreatment is high, individuals differ in symptom severity and many do not experience clinically significant levels of psychopathology. The present study tested the indirect effects of child maltreatment severity on adult PTSD, suicidal ideations, and alcohol dependence via anxiety sensitivity. A sample of 336 participants (mean age of 22.81 years, SD = 8.93; 70.2% female) completed an online survey of child abuse and neglect, anxiety sensitivity, PTSD symptom severity, suicidal ideation severity, and alcohol dependence severity. The results revealed significant indirect effects of child maltreatment on PTSD symptom severity through cognitive and social concerns, but not physical concerns. No direct or indirect effects were demonstrated for suicidal ideations or alcohol dependence severity. These findings elucidate mechanisms in the robust relationship between child maltreatment and adult PTSD symptoms and can potentially inform future research on mechanisms of change in psychotherapy.     

Exploring the Ebbs and Flows of Community Engagement: The Pyramid of Engagement and Water Activism in Two Canadian Communities

In this article, we share results from a comparative study exploring the dynamics of community engagement surrounding local water advocacy organizations in two Canadian communities. Although emergent local issues and the perception of crisis triggered some short-term community engagement, social factors such as collective identity, a sense of community, and sense of efficacy appear to be more important for sustaining and deepening engagement. Drawing on the results, we show how the pyramid of engagement, by depicting activist engagement as a multilevel, developmental process, can serve as a useful tool for community engagement scholars and practitioners alike.     

Understanding end-user perspectives to enhance perceived value uptake of harm-minimization tools: considering gambler’s views of a pre-commitment system

Harm-minimization strategies reduce the experience of gambling-related harms for individuals and those close to them. Most policies and particularly discussions of tool design and implementation fail to involve end users and consider their concerns and needs. This study aimed to investigate the best way to introduce a harm-minimization tool for electronic gaming machines (EGMs) that will maximize the perceived value and subsequent uptake by the intended audience of gamblers. Focus groups were conducted with 31 Australian regular EGM gamblers experiencing a range of gambling problems. Participants were asked their perspectives of a pre-commitment system (features including accessing activity statements, setting limits, viewing dynamic messages, taking breaks), including concerns, and how to enhance perceived value and usefulness. Positive attitudes about the system were expressed; however, many gamblers saw the tool as relevant only for problem gamblers. Participants indicated that value could be enhanced by making the system flexible and customizable, but still easy to use. Design and implementation strategies such as incorporating flexibility in features, ease of use, appropriate terminology, and educational efforts may address gamblers’ concerns, particularly regarding privacy and potential stigma. This would enhance user perception of harm-minimization tools as relevant and may subsequently enhance effectiveness.