Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories

Two experiments show that violations of expected utility due to ambiguity, found in general decision experiments, also affect belief aggregation. Hence we use modern ambiguity theories to analyze belief aggregation, thus obtaining more refined and empirically more valid results than traditional theories can provide. We can now confirm more reliably that conflicting (heterogeneous) beliefs where some agents express certainty are processed differently than informationally equivalent imprecise homogeneous beliefs. We can also investigate new phenomena related to ambiguity. For instance, agents who express certainty receive extra weight (a cognitive effect related to ambiguity-generated insensitivity) and generate extra preference value (source preference; a motivational effect related to ambiguity aversion). Hence, incentive compatible belief elicitations that prevent manipulation are especially warranted when agents express certainty. For multiple prior theories of ambiguity, our findings imply that the same prior probabilities can be treated differently in different contexts, suggesting an interest of corresponding generalizations.     

Avoidance of Heights on the Visual Cliff in Newly Walking Infants

Work with infants on the “visual cliff” links avoidance of drop‐offs to experience with self‐produced locomotion. Adolph's (2002) research on infants' perception of slope and gap traversability suggests that learning to avoid falling down is highly specific to the postural context in which it occurs. Infants, for example, who have learned to avoid crossing risky slopes while crawling must learn anew such avoidance when they start walking. Do newly walking infants avoid crossing the drop‐off of the visual cliff? Twenty prewalking but experienced crawling infants were compared with 20 similarly aged newly walking infants on their reactions to the visual cliff. Newly walking infants avoided moving onto the cliff's deep side even more consistently than did the prewalking crawlers. Thus, in the context of drop‐offs in visual texture, our results show that once avoidance of drop‐offs is established under conditions of crawling, it is developmentally maintained once infants begin walking.     

The impact of governmental assistance on insurance demand under ambiguity: a theoretical model and an experimental test

This article deals with the impact of governmental assistance on insurance demand under ambiguity, i.e., in situations where probabilities are uncertain. First, using a model of insurance demand under ambiguity, we derive theoretical predictions about the impact of several governmental assistance programmes on optimal insurance demand. For example, governmental assistance through a fixed public support scheme implies that partial insurance is always optimal under fair insurance with ambiguity. Second, we present the results of an experiment designed to test these predictions. We find support for several of our theoretical predictions. For example, the presence of governmental assistance through a fixed public support scheme decreases individuals’ willingness to pay to be fully insured. Finally, we compare these results with those obtained for a risk situation. We find that, regardless of the form of governmental assistance, participants in the ambiguity context are consistently willing to pay more to be fully insured than participants in the risk situation.     

Ambiguity Aversion in the Field of Insurance: Insurers’ Attitude to Imprecise and Conflicting Probability Estimates

This article presents the results of a survey designed to test, with economically sophisticated participants, Ellsberg’s ambiguity aversion hypothesis, and Smithson’s conflict aversion hypothesis. Based on an original sample of 78 professional actuaries (all members of the French Institute of Actuaries), this article provides empirical evidence that ambiguity (i.e. uncertainty about the probability) affect insurers’ decision on pricing insurance. It first reveals that premiums are significantly higher for risks when there is ambiguity regarding the probability of the loss. Second, it shows that insurers are sensitive to sources of ambiguity. The participants indeed, charged a higher premium when ambiguity came from conflict and disagreement regarding the probability of the loss than when ambiguity came from imprecision (imprecise forecast about the probability of the loss). This research thus documents the presence of both ambiguity aversion and conflict aversion in the field of insurance, and discuses economic and psychological rationales for the observed behaviours.     

La transition théâtrale dans l'ex-RDA : vers la recherche de nouvelles formes de régulation organisationnelle

Organized around a very dense set of public institutions, the theater world in the former German Democratic Republic has undergone major changes since reunification. New organizational models have come into being, often imported from West Germany, that jeopardize the foundations of theater practices in the East. In East Germany, people working in theater were strongly protected: homogeneous training, lifetime employment, the stability of forms of artistic cooperation, etc. Since reunification, a new division of labor and a new human resource management have been imposed in public theaters. The profession’s rules are changing as the itineraries of theater people are being individualized. The diversification of the theater world makes public institutions fragile. On the basis of field work in Saxony, questions are raised about how public theaters are being recomposed in the East. Attention is paid to individual and collective movements and to the movements of organizations.     

The performativity of strategy: Taking stock and moving ahead

This special issue groups a set of contributions that together question and extend the boundaries of strategy research by examining strategy work as a performative pursuit. In this introduction, we position the special issue papers within the broader context of performativity studies in organization and management theory. To do so, we ground the analysis of the performativity of strategy in the recent developments of strategy-as-practice research, clarify the ambitions of a performative turn in the study of strategy, introduce the plurality of performativity meanings and uses in prior research and specify the conceptualizations of performativity mobilized in the seven contributions that form this special issue. Taking stock of their rich insights, and reflecting on our editing of this special issue, we then identify key challenges underlying the constitution of the body of studies on the performativity of strategy, and propose three avenues of research that together sketch a research agenda for advancing the study of strategy as a performative endeavour.     

An analysis of co-piloting in the teaching-learning process: a case study of science class debate

In an ergonomic psychology approach, the teaching-learning process is considered a dynamic environment which emphasizes co-piloting by the teacher and the pupils. We suggest identifying exactly who takes charge in various co-piloting situations. This stems from observations of two videos of one teacher during two separate sessions of the same science class debate, carried out in different classes (the teacher's own class and an unknown class). The consideration of the teacher's and the pupils' positions towards a common reference point, comprised of posters presented by groups of pupils, as well as through pointing and indicating, allows for joint attention. This aims to identify traces of interactional modalities around a specific point of reference. This study has found that the teacher intervenes more often in a situation with an unknown class.     

‘Men have careers,women have babies’: unequal parental care among Irish entrepreneurs

This paper examines how entrepreneurial parents in Ireland negotiate their work and family roles, drawing upon a national survey of women and men entrepreneurs, to ascertain the degree to which entrepreneurship facilitates a more equitable sharing of domestic and caring tasks. Relatively few studies have examined familial and domestic task allocation in the context of entrepreneurship, as opposed to employment. The results suggest that mothers (and not fathers) adopted flexible working strategies; took on a disproportionate responsibility for caring and domestic labour; and experienced greater role conflict. Far from contradicting the prevailing findings of gender and employment issues, the study validates the gendered patterns of divergence between men and women and illustrates how they extend into entrepreneurship. Fathers worked significantly longer hours; their career trajectories were typically continuous, in full-time work, while mothers had more fragmented working patterns, reflecting absences for caring and adjustments such as part-time or working from home. It is still mothers, rather than fathers, who feel responsible for childcare arrangements and this imposes time constraints on their pursuit of entrepreneurship. The study points to the need for policy interventions to encourage entrepreneurship alongside co-parenting through childcare provision/subsidies and equal treatment in access to family-related leave.