Anchoring in lie detection revisited

Previous research has shown that the human lie detector tends to interpret messages as truthful rather than as deceptive (the truthfulness bias) and to infer attitudes congruent with the content of the (sometimes deceptive) messages (over-attribution). It was hypothesized that these effects are moderated by the extent to which receivers are anchored to the verbal content of the message; that is, receivers might form an early impression of the content and fail to adjust this impression sufficiently even if the message appears false. In the present study, receivers either judged the truthfulness of the message first and the sender's attitude second, or judged the sender's attitude first and truthfulness second, or judged only the sender's attitude. We proposed that having to judge truthfulness first would interfere with the role of the verbal content as an anchor for the receiver's impression. Consistent with this rationale, the results showed that both truthfulness bias and overattribution diminished when receivers judged truthfulness first compared to when receivers judged attitudes first or judged only attitudes.     

The effect of attitudes on emotional reactions to expressive displays of political leaders

One hundred subjects participated in an experiment to assess emotional reactions to the expressive displays of political leaders. Attitudes were assessed through questionnaire items, and facial EMG, heart rate, and skin conductance were recorded while subjects watched silent expressive displays of intense happiness/reassurance, mild happiness/reassurance, and anger/threat by President Reagan and Senator Hart. Half of the subjects reported their global affective reaction during each display, and all subjects reported discrete emotional reactions following each display. For Reagan, main effects were found for display type and for prior attitude in the self-report scales and in facial EMG, although significant Prior Attitude X Display interactions indicated that the intense happiness/reassurance displays most strongly differentiated supporters from opponents. Main effects were found for Hart's displays on the self-report scales and on facial EMG, and post hoc analyses revealed attitude effects. These results support previous research concerning affective reactions to dynamic expressive displays of emotion, but they also show the possible influence of prior attitude toward the expressor on both somatic and subjective measures of emotional response.This research was supported by National Science Foundation Grant SES 83-10176 and the Lincoln Filene Endowment to Dartmouth College and was part of a collaborative project involving Professors Roger D. Masters and Denis G. Sullivan of the Government Department at Dartmouth College. The authors thank Alice Feola for her assistance in preparing the stimulus videotapes. Lauren Bush is now at the Department of Psychology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. John Lanzetta, our friend and colleague, who contributed so much to this project, died in October 1989 after a year-long illness.     

Immigrant characteristics and Hispanic-Anglo housing inequality

This paper seeks to explain why Hispanic households in the United States live in housing markedly inferior to Anglos’. I argue that immigrant characteristics of Hispanic households and the metropolitan areas in which Hispanics live play important roles in determining such inequality in the housing market. Empirical analyses of homeownership, household crowding, and housing costs demonstrate that immigration plays a role in explaining relatively low homeownership and high household crowding for each of four large Hispanic populations (Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, and other Hispanics). The role of immigrant characteristics in determining housing costs is much weaker.     

Improving the Regulation of Carcinogens by Expediting Cancer Potency Estimation1

The statutory language of the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986 (Proposition 65; California Health and Safety Code 25249.5 et seq.) encourages rapid adoption of “no significant risk levels” (NSRLs), intakes associated with estimated cancer risks of no more than 1 in 100,000. Derivation of an NSRL for a carcinogen listed under Proposition 65 requires the development of a cancer potency value. This paper discusses the methodology for the derivation of cancer potencies using an expedited procedure, and provides potency estimates for a number of agents listed as carcinogens under Proposition 65. To derive expedited potency values, default risk assessment methods are applied to data sets selected from an extensive tabulation of animal cancer bioassays according to criteria used by regulatory agencies. A subset of these expedited values is compared to values previously developed by regulatory agencies using conventional quantitative risk assessment and found to be in good agreement. Specific regulatory activities which could be facilitated by adopting similar expedited procedures are identified.     

你的下一个错误是否致命？

什么会让你与成功背道而驰?《关键决策：中断摧毁企业的连锁错误》(台湾培生教育,2005年)的作者罗伯特·密特史戴德(RobertE.MittelstasdtJr)说,如果你不加小心,这种因素就太多了。在许多企业中,成功滋生了危险的态度：短视、傲慢、自我中心,它们可能最终会使得经理人忽视出错的征兆,因为他们根本想不到会出问题。     

How low can it go? declining black-white segregation in A multiethnic context

We extend research on whites’ neighborhood contact with blacks, population composition, and prospects for desegregation by developing a new measure of the floor of racial residential segregation under conditions of low black-white contact. The measure incorporates the way in which multi ethnic contexts further constrain levels of black-white segregation. The results show that black-white desegregation is likely when the black population is small, but is unlikely otherwise. Yet, when multiple ethnic groups are sufficiently large, a moderate level of black-white segregation is necessary for whites to maintain low neighborhood contact with blacks, even when the proportion of African Americans is small.     

A Scenario‐Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj

Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory‐confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS‐CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human‐to‐human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS‐CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human‐to‐human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS‐CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.     

Urban vans,e-commerce and road freight transport

Abstract

A city will typically depend on at least 150 supply chains and freight is a key part of them. This article aims to explore at the qualitative and qualitative level (1) how e-commerce drives both travel and urban freight transport and (2) to estimate how various manufacturing activities determine the stability of demand for freight transport. The article provides elasticity estimates on (1) the demand for road freight transport for five industry sectors using a time series framework; data on GDP (gross value added) and on fuel costs per t-km (tonne-km). A key finding is that e-commerce induces freight traffic, by vans, but the decline in freight intensity of the economy is only temporary since urban economic activity contributes to growth of freight. Our analysis of five manufacturing sectors confirms that cyclical sectors are more sensitive to energy price gyrations over time than non-cyclical sectors. Price elasticities are high but comparable to other studies. The income elasticity of freight transport is large for the five sectors, but the high heterogeneity of freight sectors means that predicting this activity is challenging. It is observed that truck freight intensity (km of trucks per GVA) declines but not enough to offset the rise in energy needed to fuel the entire freight transport sector; it is likely that the rise in van freight increases the demand for freight energy in urban regions.     

Attrition rate in infant fNIRS research: A meta-analysis

Understanding the trends and predictors of attrition rate, or the proportion of collected data that is excluded from the final analyses, is important for accurate research planning, assessing data integrity, and ensuring generalizability. In this pre-registered meta-analysis, we reviewed 182 publications in infant (0–24 months) functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) research published from 1998 to April 9, 2020, and investigated the trends and predictors of attrition. The average attrition rate was 34.23% among 272 experiments across all 182 publications. Among a subset of 136 experiments that reported the specific reasons for subject exclusion, 21.50% of the attrition was infant-driven, while 14.21% was signal-driven. Subject characteristics (e.g., age) and study design (e.g., fNIRS cap configuration, block/trial design, and stimulus type) predicted the total and subject-driven attrition rates, suggesting that modifying the recruitment pool or the study design can meaningfully reduce the attrition rate in infant fNIRS research. Based on the findings, we established guidelines for reporting the attrition rate for scientific transparency and made recommendations to minimize the attrition rates. This research can facilitate developmental cognitive neuroscientists in their quest toward increasingly rigorous and representative research.