Adjustment of provisional mortality series: the dynamic linear model with structured measurement errors

The authors "consider the problem of adjusting provisional time series using a bivariate structural model with correlated measurement errors. Maximum likelihood estimators and a minimum mean squared error adjustment procedure are derived for a provisional and final series containing common trend and seasonal components. The model also includes measurement errors common to both series and errors that are specific to the provisional series. [The authors] illustrate the technique by using provisional data to forecast ischemic heart disease mortality."     

RESPONSE-TIME MEASUREMENT IN SURVEY RESEARCH A METHOD FOR CATI AND A NEW LOOK AT NONATTITUDES

The paper introduces a methodology for measuring accuratelythe time it takes respondents to answer questions in computer-assistedtelephone surveys. The methodology, which is completely invisibleto respondents, comprises a computer "clock," capable of timingresponses with millisecond accuracy, and a "voice-key" thatconverts sounds emitted by respondents into signals capableof triggering the computer clock. Response times to questionson a range of attitude questions, including stable and unstableattitudes, were measured. The results revealed orderly normsin the latencies associated with various types of survey questions.The latencies associated with the expression of stable and unstableattitudes are discussed in the context of the notion of "nonattitudes"and shed new light on this controversial thesis. Overall, ourresults demonstrate that response latencies can be measuredprecisely and reliably in telephone surveys and that the datafrom such measurement open new windows on the cognitive dynamicsof survey responses.     

An evaluation of socially responsive planning in a new resource town

New resource towns on the Canadian frontier have presented planners with opportunities to experiment with innovative planning ideas which attempt to resolve the persistent problems of such communities. In the planning of Tumbler Ridge, a new coal mining town in British Columbia, socially responsive planning was an attempt to develop a town using principles derived from social science research. In this paper the reactions of residents to selected attributes which reflect the application of these principles are examined five years after settlement began. Ratings of community attributes offer an indication of aspects of residential satisfaction, while the results of a principal components analysis suggest the dimensionality of residents' evaluative structures and provide a useful framework within which to consider planning issues. Issues examined are: the association between employment and the community environment; the suitability of the environment for children; and the social environment. While social aspects of the new community are judged as satisfactory, less positive elements reflect the underlying influence of the economic well-being of the mining company on overall community satisfaction. When compared to indicators of community satisfaction in other western Canadian resource towns, ratings for Tumbler Ridge tend to be fairly low. It is concluded that the inability of planners to adequately control implementation or dontinuity of their ideas has resulted in a community not distinctly different from other resource towns. Efforts have been further hampered by a lack of adequate models of the distinctive dynamics of resource communities.     

Population growth,farmland, and the long-run standard of living

This paper studies the natural-resources element in the theory of population growth over the very long run. In the context of the stock of land and Malthusian crises in earlier times, the model shows how resources have become more available rather than more scarce, even as population and income have increased.The paper sketches a mechanism which, added to the Malthusian system, leads to entirely different conclusions than does the Malthusian system. Using the illustration of food and land, change in knowledge and hence in the stock of resources is made a function of the stock of knowledge and the price of resources. The speed of adjustment depends on the economic and social climate for the development of new knowledge. Population growth first raises food and land prices, which then stimulate the creation of new resources, eventually leading to less scarcity of resources and lower prices than originally prevailed.That is, population growth creates new problems which in the short run constitute additional burdens which, in the longer run, lead to new developments that leave people better off than if the problems had never arisen.This paper benefitted from being presented in earlier draft at a Population Association of America meeting, to the Economic History workshop at the University of Illinois, and to a seminar of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in New Delhi. We appreciate valuable comments on earlier drafts from Stanley Engerman, E. L. Jones, William McNeill, and two anonymous referees. Gunter Steinmann acknowledges financial support from the Volkswagen Foundation and a travel grant from Fulbright Commission.     

Estimation of mortality from orphanhood in adulthood

This paper extends earlier research into methods for estimating adult mortality from information on the recent incidence of orphanhood. It presents a series of regression coefficients for estimating female and male mortality from synthetic cohort data on the subsequent orphanhood of those who had a living mother or father at exact age 20. Such information can be obtained either where questions about parental survival have been asked in two inquiries or by asking retrospectively about dates of orphanhood in a single survey. Although the method is somewhat sensitive to errors in the reporting of ages and dates, it is a promising source of up-to-date estimates of adult mortality that are free from bias due to the underreporting of the orphanhood of young children ("the adoption effect").     

Supreme Court expands view of interstate commerce in peer review proceeding

At the end of May, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed an antitrust claim by a physician against a hospital for an allegedly improper peer review proceeding. Previously, hospitals were allowed to defend against antitrust claims regarding a peer review decision involving one physician on the grounds that the activities did not affect interstate commerce. The Supreme Court has apparently removed this defense by letting stand a Court of Appeals decision allowing a physician's antitrust claim against a hospital that has suspended his privileges.     

Survey provides overview of profession's responsibilities

At the end of 1990, the Physician Executive Management Center, Tampa, Fla., undertook a survey of College members to determine levels of compensation and benefits and to provide a glimpse at the roles and responsibilities of physician executives. The results of the survey have recently been published by the Management Center. In this article, the roles and responsibilities of physician executives for the overall sample are summarized.     

Regulation of board-and-care homes: research to guide policy

Information about board-and-care homes reported in the media and in federal committee hearings indicates that they are shoddy and exploitative environments that do not provide adequate care. Research done in board-and-care homes in recent years, however, demonstrates that they can provide adequate care and a satisfying environment for some of the people they serve. Policy at the federal, state, and local levels should be guided by both the need to assure the health and safety of board-and-care residents and the needs of residents and operators identified in scientific studies.     

The impact of the Gulf war on migration and remittances in Asia and the Middle East

The author discusses the impact of the 1990 Gulf war on the migrant worker populations in the region, with a focus on migration and remittances in Asia and the Middle East. Both immediate and long-term effects are considered. "From the perspective of foreign migrant communities living in the Gulf...the war...was much more of a disaster for Arabs than for Asians....Arab migrant populations...were dramatically affected by the Gulf crisis. In contrast, the Asian migrant community was largely concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the [United Arab Emirates] and remained relatively less affected by the crisis. Subsequent polarization in the Arab world gives Asian labor-exporting countries an unexpected opportunity to increase their share of Gulf labor markets still further in the coming years." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)