你的下一个错误是否致命？

什么会让你与成功背道而驰?《关键决策：中断摧毁企业的连锁错误》(台湾培生教育,2005年)的作者罗伯特·密特史戴德(RobertE.MittelstasdtJr)说,如果你不加小心,这种因素就太多了。在许多企业中,成功滋生了危险的态度：短视、傲慢、自我中心,它们可能最终会使得经理人忽视出错的征兆,因为他们根本想不到会出问题。     

How low can it go? declining black-white segregation in A multiethnic context

We extend research on whites’ neighborhood contact with blacks, population composition, and prospects for desegregation by developing a new measure of the floor of racial residential segregation under conditions of low black-white contact. The measure incorporates the way in which multi ethnic contexts further constrain levels of black-white segregation. The results show that black-white desegregation is likely when the black population is small, but is unlikely otherwise. Yet, when multiple ethnic groups are sufficiently large, a moderate level of black-white segregation is necessary for whites to maintain low neighborhood contact with blacks, even when the proportion of African Americans is small.     

A Scenario‐Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj

Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory‐confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS‐CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human‐to‐human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS‐CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human‐to‐human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS‐CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.     

Stepfather–Adolescent Relationship Quality During the First Year of Transitioning to a Stepfamily

This study contributes to the growing literature on factors associated with the formation of close relationships between stepfathers and stepchildren. The authors extend prior research by using nationally representative data from Add Health (N = 179) to examine how factors existing prior to stepfamily formation are associated with the quality of stepfather–adolescent ties within the first year after married stepfathers join the household. Results from structural equation models revealed that both the quality of the mother–adolescent relationship and adolescent adjustment prior to stepfamily formation were significantly associated with the perceived quality of adolescents' relationships with their stepfathers.     

Attrition rate in infant fNIRS research: A meta-analysis

Understanding the trends and predictors of attrition rate, or the proportion of collected data that is excluded from the final analyses, is important for accurate research planning, assessing data integrity, and ensuring generalizability. In this pre-registered meta-analysis, we reviewed 182 publications in infant (0–24 months) functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) research published from 1998 to April 9, 2020, and investigated the trends and predictors of attrition. The average attrition rate was 34.23% among 272 experiments across all 182 publications. Among a subset of 136 experiments that reported the specific reasons for subject exclusion, 21.50% of the attrition was infant-driven, while 14.21% was signal-driven. Subject characteristics (e.g., age) and study design (e.g., fNIRS cap configuration, block/trial design, and stimulus type) predicted the total and subject-driven attrition rates, suggesting that modifying the recruitment pool or the study design can meaningfully reduce the attrition rate in infant fNIRS research. Based on the findings, we established guidelines for reporting the attrition rate for scientific transparency and made recommendations to minimize the attrition rates. This research can facilitate developmental cognitive neuroscientists in their quest toward increasingly rigorous and representative research.     

Infants' lexical comprehension and lexical anticipation abilities are closely linked in early language development

Theories across cognitive domains propose that anticipating upcoming sensory input supports information processing. In line with this view, prior findings indicate that adults and children anticipate upcoming words during real-time language processing, via such processes as prediction and priming. However, it is unclear if anticipatory processes are strictly an outcome of prior language development or are more entwined with language learning and development. We operationalized this theoretical question as whether developmental emergence of comprehension of lexical items occurs before or concurrently with the anticipation of these lexical items. To this end, we tested infants of ages 12, 15, 18, and 24 months (N = 67) on their abilities to comprehend and anticipate familiar nouns. In an eye-tracking task, infants viewed pairs of images and heard sentences with either informative words (e.g., eat) that allowed them to anticipate an upcoming noun (e.g., cookie), or uninformative words (e.g., see). Findings indicated that infants' comprehension and anticipation abilities are closely linked over developmental time and within individuals. Importantly, we do not find evidence for lexical comprehension in the absence of lexical anticipation. Thus, anticipatory processes are present early in infants' second year, suggesting they are a part of language development rather than solely an outcome of it.