A MEN'S SUPPORT GROUP FOR SIGNIFICANT OTHERS OF RAPE VICTIMS

This article discusses the trauma for rape as experienced by women rape victims and focuses on a men's support group for male-significant-others of women who have been raped. The project describes the various developmental phases through which the male-significant-others of rape victims must pass in order to achieve resolution and the impact of the male's response upon the relationship with the victim.     

FORECASTING U.S. MORTALITY:

This article compares two methodologies for modeling and forecasting statistical time series models of demographic processes: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and structural time series analysis. The Lee-Carter method is used to construct nonlinear demographic models of U.S. mortality rates for the total population, gender, and race and gender combined. Single time varying parameters of k, the index of mortality, are derived from these model and fitted and forecasted using the two methodologies. Forecasts of life expectancy at birth, e₀, are generated from these indexes of k. Results show marginal differences in fit and forecasts between the two statistical approaches with a slight advantage to structural models. Stability across models for both methodologies offers support for the robustness of this approach to demographic forecasting.     

EVIDENCE ON ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY IN THE U.S. SENATE: ARE UNFAITHFUL AGENTS REALLY PUNISHED?

Many have questioned whether voters are able to hold incumbent officials electorally accountable through a retrospective voting strategy. We examine U.S. Senate elections from 1962 to 1990 in forty-one states, explaining which incumbents ran for reelection and their success in seeking reelection. We find that an incumbent's deviation from her state party platform decreases the probability that she will run for reelection and win if she runs. Furthermore, the electoral mechanism is found to be more efficient when voters are better informed. Finally, we find that our divergent party platform model provides a better fit than the median voter model.     

The compensation of national union presidents: Moderating effects of union size

Over the last forty years numerous reseachers from the fields of economics, finance, and human resources management have proposed and empirically evaluated a number of models in efforts to identify determinants of executive compensation. Recently, similar research efforts have been undertaken to identify compensation determinants for union officers, both at the local and national levels. As an extension of these works, this study found measures of union financial strength, job complexity, performance and tenure in office to be directly related to national union presidents’ compensation. Although union income and relative union member earnings were the strongest determinants of officer compensation for the sample of unions as a whole, analyses of three subgroups of unions based on size revealed very different findings for large as opposed to small and medium-sized unions.     

Rational Suggestions for Pre-Marital Counseling

Pre-marital counseling purports to help clients discover and challenge unrealistic expectations they may have for themselves and for one another. Rational-Emotive Therapy (RET) is ideally suited to locating and correcting irrational thoughts that precipitate personal and interpersonal conflict. In order to demonstrate the utility of RET pre-marital counseling, this article presents examples of specific irrational beliefs which clinicians can use to help couples develop and maintain intimacy with minimal conflict. Mental health practitioners are encouraged to apply these principles to other specific irrationalities they may discover in their own work experience.     

Brain tumor-associated dementia

In this case study, we describe a patient with a dementia due to a brain tumor. This unusual cause of dementia illustrates the importance of a thorough evaluation of anyone who experiences relatively sudden changes in cognitive functions. The disorder had features common to other dementias but also had some unusual attributes that made a diagnosis of neurodegenerative disease less likely. Common features included intellectual decline involving difficulties in word-finding, the occurrence of paraphasia, poor concentration, disorientation in familiar environments, problems performing routine complex tasks, and elements of social withdrawal. Unlike more common degenerative dementias, however, there was no marked memory involvement. In addition, the onset of illness was rapid and associated with headaches, incontinence, and some gait and motor dysfunction.     

A multimethod assessment of personal space development in female and male,black and white children

In order to obtain evidence of the effects of demographic parameters and measurement techniques on personal space, several different assessments were used to determine the impact of subject age, race, and sex on interpersonal distancing. Thirteen different variables representing stimulation, paper-and-pencil, and behavioral techniques indicated that as age increased, personal space requirements decreased, particularly for whites. Blacks as compared to whites required less space at age 7, and mixed-sex dyads tended to require more space than same-sex dyads. The results thus indicate that while some previous findings appear to be measurement method specific, others show intermethod consistency.     

Analyzing Evacuation Versus Shelter‐in‐Place Strategies After a Terrorist Nuclear Detonation

We superimpose a radiation fallout model onto a traffic flow model to assess the evacuation versus shelter‐in‐place decisions after the daytime ground‐level detonation of a 10‐kt improvised nuclear device in Washington, DC. In our model, ≈80k people are killed by the prompt effects of blast, burn, and radiation. Of the ≈360k survivors without access to a vehicle, 42.6k would die if they immediately self‐evacuated on foot. Sheltering above ground would save several thousand of these lives and sheltering in a basement (or near the middle of a large building) would save of them. Among survivors of the prompt effects with access to a vehicle, the number of deaths depends on the fraction of people who shelter in a basement rather than self‐evacuate in their vehicle: 23.1k people die if 90% shelter in a basement and 54.6k die if 10% shelter. Sheltering above ground saves approximately half as many lives as sheltering in a basement. The details related to delayed (i.e., organized) evacuation, search and rescue, decontamination, and situational awareness (via, e.g., telecommunications) have very little impact on the number of casualties. Although antibiotics and transfusion support have the potential to save ≈10k lives (and the number of lives saved from medical care increases with the fraction of people who shelter in basements), the logistical challenge appears to be well beyond current response capabilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the government should initiate an aggressive outreach program to educate citizens and the private sector about the importance of sheltering in place in a basement for at least 12 hours after a terrorist nuclear detonation.     

Obtaining a Trapezoidal Distribution

Given a most believed value for a quantity together with upper and lower possible deviations from that value, a rectangular distribution might be used to represent state-of-knowledge about the quantity. If the deviations are themselves known by probability distributions, and the value conditioned on the deviations is rectangular, then the marginal distribution of the value is determined by the distributions of the deviations. Here we show under quite general conditions that conversely, given the marginal distribution, the distributions of the deviations are uniquely determined. The case in which the marginal distribution is trapezoidal is studied in some detail.