Community and Individual Factors Associated with Cigarette Smoking Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men

Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) have higher rates of cigarette smoking than their heterosexual counterparts, yet few studies have examined factors associated with cigarette smoking among YMSM. The present study sought to understand how different types of gay community connection (i.e., gay community identification and involvement, gay bar/club attendance) were associated with smoking among YMSM recruited through venue-based sampling in Los Angeles, California (N = 526). Structural equation modeling was used to isolate direct and indirect effects of gay community connection on smoking through cognitive and psychological mediators (i.e., psychological distress, health values, internalized homophobia). Findings indicate YMSM cigarette smoking prevention and intervention must be tailored to address the direct and indirect influences of the gay community.     

Surrendering the environment for capital gain and Olson’s group theory: A case study of the dissolution of housing co-operative societies in Hong Kong

This paper describes the rise of the co-operative housing of civil servants and its fall during the transition of Hong Kong from a British colony to a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China. Olson’s group theory was adopted to explain the timing of the dissolution in a context of uncertainty in the property rights of land; the terms of civil service appointments; and the housing market. The size of the ownership body and the value of the land were evaluated as factors affecting dissolution decisions. It was found that in agreement with Olson’s theory, the number of members of the body had a statistically significant positive relationship with the life (between formation and dissolution) of the co-operative body. In addition, it was also found that factors that affected the opportunity cost of maintaining status quo, including the value of the land on which the co-op scheme sits and the real option value of redevelopment, had a significant impact on the timing of the dissolution of the co-op. The implications for using Olson’s theory were also discussed.     

Labor market institutions and demographic employment patterns

We study collective bargaining’s effect on relative employment for youth, women, and older individuals. Our model of collective wage setting predicts that unionization reduces employment more for groups with relatively elastic labor supply: youth, older individuals, and women. We test this implication using data from 17 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the 1960–1996 period. We find that time-varying indicators of unionization decrease the employment–population ratio of young and older individuals relative to the prime-aged, and of prime-aged women relative to prime-aged men, and unionization raises the unemployment rate of prime-aged women and, possibly, young men compared to prime-aged men.

The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors: An evaluation using conifidence intervals for subcounty areas

Producers of population forecasts acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in trying to predict the future and should warn about the likely error of their forecasts. Confidence intervals represent one way of quantifying population forecast error. Most of the work in this area relates to national forecasts; although, confidence intervals have been developed for state and county forecasts. A few studies have examined subcounty forecast error, however, they only measured point estimates of error. This paper describes a technique for making subcounty population forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around their forecast error. It also develops statistical equations for calculating point estimates and confidence intervals for areas with different population sizes. A non-linear, inverse relationship between population size and forecast accuracy was found and we demonstrate the ability to accurately predict average forecast error and confidence intervals based on this relationship.     

Illusions of Learning

An argument is made that American social distress is exacerbated by the decline of public education, a decline fostered and maintained by systematic self-deception. Americans hold cherished beliefs about education, teaching, and learning that they know are not now, or cannot be, true. America's educational policies both reflect popular beliefs and give direction. Baffling public policy can make sense when seen in the broader context of public perceptions, beliefs, sentiments, ideologies, values, and opinions. This context shifts over time, circumstance, and group. Although this conceptual mix varies with geographic location and media attention, in this paper I have tried to touch on widely accepted, thus potent, national illusions that have confounded our understanding of public education and have misdirected educational policy.     

If You're so Smart,why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets

This paper provides an analysis of the asymptotic properties of Pareto optimal consumption allocations in a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers. In particular, we investigate the market selection hypothesis that markets favor traders with more accurate beliefs. We show that in any Pareto‐optimal allocation whether each consumer vanishes or survives is determined entirely by discount factors and beliefs. Whereas equilibrium allocations in economies with complete markets are Pareto optimal, our results characterize the limit behavior of these economies. We show that, all else equal, the market selects for consumers who use Bayesian learning with the truth in the support of their prior and selects among Bayesians according to the size of their parameter space. Finally, we show that in economies with incomplete markets, these conclusions may not hold. With incomplete markets, payoff functions can matter for long‐run survival, and the market selection hypothesis fails.     

LEVINE'S GERMAN TRADITION: Consolations for the Sociologist

In Visions of the Sociological Tradition Donald N. Levine presents a view of the German sociological tradition that emphasizes its origins in philosophical idealism. This paper discusses the implications of this, view for understanding the formation of sociology in Germany. The author suggests that Levine's account can be supplemented and strengthened by reconstructing the German tradition both as an effort to proceed without foundational philosophical systems and as an outgrowth of social economics and the historical school of political economy. Most importantly, Levine shares the call for sociology as the site of dialogue with that reconstructed German tradition.     

U.S. ratification of the CRC and reducing child poverty: can we get there from here?

If the United States finally ratifies the United Nations Convention of the Rights of the Child (CRC), will it improve the country's to effectively combat child poverty and thereby improve child well-being? This article addresses this and related questions in two ways. First, the authors examine how ratification of the CRC has influenced the efforts of other wealthy Anglophone countries to reduce child poverty. Second, they draw on lessons learned from these other countries' efforts to generate predictions about America's postratification future. The authors conclude that, while the CRC is a compelling, practical tool, a communications strategy and business plan are necessary complements to achieve desired results.