高校贫困生AHP-CBR分级认定模型建构

准确认定贫困学生资格是高校合理、公平分配资助资源的先决条件.本文利用层次分析法(AHP)与案例推理(CBR)原理建构高校贫困生分级认定模型,构造了贫困生案例属性层次模型;采用向量定义法,给出了案例库和贫困生分级认定问题的形式化描述;研究了以案例检索为基础的贫困生分级认定算法.模型有效性测试结果表明:案例库中案例数量大于1094条记录后,案例检索结果具有稳定的匹配案例相似度;对目标案例的求解结果与原认定结论进行显著性差异检验,Z检验统计量计算结果均小于1.96,二者无显著性差异,表明模型计算结果是有效的.     

Flood risk mapping and analysis using an integrated framework of machine learning models and analytic hierarchy process

In this study, a new approach of machine learning (ML) models integrated with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was proposed to develop a holistic flood risk assessment map. Flood susceptibility maps were created using ML techniques. AHP was utilized to combine flood vulnerability and exposure criteria. We selected Quang Binh province of Vietnam as a case study and collected available data, including 696 flooding locations of historical flooding events in 2007, 2010, 2016, and 2020; and flood influencing factors of elevation, slope, curvature, flow direction, flow accumulation, distance from river, river density, land cover, geology, and rainfall. These data were used to construct training and testing datasets. The susceptibility models were validated and compared using statistical techniques. An integrated flood risk assessment framework was proposed to incorporate flood hazard (flood susceptibility), flood exposure (distance from river, land use, population density, and rainfall), and flood vulnerability (poverty rate, number of freshwater stations, road density, number of schools, and healthcare facilities). Model validation suggested that deep learning has the best performance of AUC = 0.984 compared with other ensemble models of MultiBoostAB Ensemble (0.958), Random SubSpace Ensemble (0.962), and credal decision tree (AUC = 0.918). The final flood risk map shows 5075 ha (0.63%) in extremely high risk, 47,955 ha (5.95%) in high-risk, 40,460 ha (5.02%) in medium risk, 431,908 ha (53.55%) in low risk areas, and 281,127 ha (34.86%) in very low risk. The present study highlights that the integration of ML models and AHP is a promising framework for mapping flood risks in flood-prone areas.     

Identifying key factors in momentum in basketball games

Momentum as elaborated under a recent novel definition has been shown quantitatively to have a significant impact on basketball game outcomes. This paper makes two contributions to the analytical literature on sports momentum: (1) two aspects of the new definition are operationalized so that its practicality becomes evident; and (2) through a dimension-reduction technique (elastic net), key factors associated with momentum are identified. Both technical variables such as field goals, assists, rebounds, etc. and environmental variables such as the spectator attendance rate and player salary dispersion are considered, and the potential for useful real-time analyzes is illustrated.     

从旷课现象探索教学改革

文章对高等学校教学过程中学生旷课的原因进行了系统分析,指出学生旷课的最根本的原因是缺乏或丧失学习动机。同时,对"选课、选教"工作中可能存在的问题进行了分析,并提出了具体的应对措施,以期为高等学校的教学改革提供参考。     

"一带一路"背景下中国边疆形象构建的历史基础与文化战略意义

自古以来,“边疆”作为中国对外交流的关口,具有不可取代的战略意义。古时,在“一点四方”统治观念下,“边疆”具有区别于王朝国家核心区的文化地理内涵,通过“边疆”走向欧洲、非洲的丝绸、瓷器、茶叶开启了西方人对东方国度乌托邦式的想象。近代,随着王朝国家的衰落和西方启蒙运动自我批判的觉醒,“边疆”又成为“东方地狱”中一抹神秘的色彩,一块未经发掘的处女地。20世纪90年代,自中国将“和平崛起“作为对外交流的叙述话语以来,“边疆”又被西方冠以落后、分裂、暴力的形象,意图通过充满意识形态的“人权”倡导和模糊的民族国家概念来肢解中华民族。中国边疆何以在不同的历史时期具有“性格迥异”的面孔？新时期,“一带一路”倡议的提出为边疆形象的塑造和传播提供了更加丰富的场域和资本。而边疆形象的合理建构也对“一带一路”倡议的整体布局、中国国际话语权的提升、中国形象的正确定位、与邻国的政治经济交往以及边疆地区自身的发展稳定具有重要的战略意义。     

The effect of tapering on the semiparametric estimators for nonstationary long memory processes

In this paper, we study, by a Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the order p of “Zhurbenko-Kolmogorov” taper on the asymptotic properties of semiparametric estimators. We show that p  =  [d + 1/2] + 1 gives the smallest variances and mean squared errors. These properties depend also on the truncation parameter m. Moreover, we study the impact of the short-memory components on the bias and variances of these estimators. We finally carry out an empirical application by using four monthly seasonally adjusted logarithm Consumer Price Index series.      

The type I distribution of the ratio of independent “Weibullized” generalized beta-prime variables

In this paper we introduce the distribution of , with c >  0, where X _i , i =  1, 2, are independent generalized beta-prime-distributed random variables, and establish a closed form expression of its density. This distribution has as its limiting case the generalized beta type I distribution recently introduced by Nadarajah and Kotz (2004). Due to the presence of several parameters the density can take a wide variety of shapes.      

新时期地方高校科研项目申报管理中的要素分析--以国家社科基金项目为例

近年来,随着地方高校的蓬勃发展和对科学研究的日益重视,地方高校已成为申报各级各类科研项目的生力军。对地方高校而言,项目申报不仅反映出高校科研管理的能力和水平,也是对高校人才培养、制定激励政策、提升科学管理水平的系统体现。本文通过对地方高校成功申报国家社科基金项目经验做法的分析,提出了在加大政策力度、重视项目申报质量、增强学术自信等方面的对策意见,为相关部门及科研项目申报者提供借鉴和参考。     

香港陪审团指示与语用学合作原则研究

诉讼程序中陪审团指示用语违背语用学合作原则,可能引起法律上的各种相应后果。分析我国香港陪审团制度中的大量案例,结果表明并不是所有的歧义、指示矛盾或者其他指示缺陷都会必然导致合法程序的违背,但违背合作原则显然是当事人上诉以及上级法院搁置或撤销下级法院原判的重要依据之一。因此,建议以合作原则作为分析陪审团指示是否违背合法程序的主要指导原则,对于我国刚纳入诉讼法律程序不久的法官释明权的发展与完善也有一定的借鉴作用。     

投入产出视角下工业技术创新的环境规制协同效应

技术创新是实现经济发展和环境保护"双重红利"的必要途径。为此,构建环境规制影响工业技术创新投入产出的三阶段分析框架,利用中国2002-2015年大中型工业企业35个分行业面板数据,使用动态面板系统广义矩估计（GMM）方法,在区分行业间污染排放强度波动趋势异质性的条件下实证检验环境规制对工业技术创新投入、产出的非线性影响及分阶段作用机制,找寻工业技术创新的环境规制最优协同区间,进一步引入交互项模型分析环境规制、创新投入、创新产出之间的交互影响与协同效应,以综合探究工业技术创新的环境规制协同机制。研究结果表明:（1）除在污染排放强度为递增样本,环境规制与创新人员、资金投入均呈现"U形"关系;（2）环境规制与创新知识、产品产出均呈现"倒U形"关系;（3）虽然在全样本中存在创新投入产出分阶段协同作用的最优环境规制区间,但中国现阶段环境规制水平还处于各曲线拐点左侧,远低于协同区间水平;（4）在创新技术研发阶段,存在环境规制与创新资金投入的协同效应,在创新技术转化阶段,存在环境规制与创新知识产出的协同效应。目前,中国工业行业整体环境规制水平仍然较低,为实现环境与经济的双赢,应提高环境规制强度,针对不同工业行业制定环境规制滚动修正、动态调整机制,充分发挥环境规制对工业行业技术创新的推动作用。