Who needs RDD? Combining directory listings with cell phone exchanges for an alternative telephone sampling frame

The traditional Random Digit Dialing method (list-assisted RDD using a frame of landline phone numbers) is clearly under threat. The difficulty and costs of completing telephone surveys have increased due to rising rates of refusal and non-contact. The completeness of coverage of list-assisted RDD samples has diminished due to the proliferation of cell-phone only households. The ability of list-assisted RDD to capture young, mobile, unmarried, and minority households is thus diminishing as well. Increasingly, survey researchers have been adding a cell phone component to their sampling frames for telephone surveys, despite the increased costs and other issues associated with RDD calling of cell phones.Recent research by Guterbock, Oldendick, and others has explored the extent to which “electronic white pages” (EWP) samples really differ from RDD samples. Oldendick et al. and Guterbock, Diop and Holian have emphasized that minority households are seriously underrepresented in EWP samples. Nevertheless, EWP samples have distinct advantages whenever a survey is aimed at a restricted geographic area.This paper considers the feasibility of combining EWP samples with cell-phone RDD, eliminating the ordinary RDD component from the sampling frame. We analyze the components of the telephone population, showing that the proposed method would fail to cover only one segment of the telephone population: unlisted landline households that have no cell phone. We analyze data from the 2006 National Health Interview Study to estimate the size of this segment, its demographic profile, the degree to which selected demographic and health behavior characteristics are different from those in the segments that this sampling strategy would capture, and what biases are present in the various sampling frames of interest. Trend data from the NHIS are used to assess how these biases are changing. A simple cost comparison is made among the RDD, RDD + cell and EWP + cell frames. The proposed alternative “EWP + cell” sampling frame provides relatively small bias compared to RDD + cell at costs comparable to RDD-only designs. The portion of the telephone universe that is excluded in the EWP + cell design is getting smaller all the time, therefore its bias relative to the RDD + cell design is decreasing over time. Overall, the EWP + cell design seems to be a useful alternative.     

"诗狐"故事与清代才女现象

“诗狐”故事是清代文言小说中大量出现的一类极具近代文明色彩的人狐恋故事,其角色、情节、主题等多个文学因素都具有十分独特的性质。这种新颖故事的大量出现,最直接来源于其时社会中令人瞩目的才女现象。现实才女正是“诗狐”的原型,作为封建末世文人心中的理想女性和渴慕对象,她们被文人以浪漫的艺术手法演绎进精彩的人狐恋,成为有清一代文学的特色和成就。     

突发水灾害应急合作的行为博弈模型研究

本文针对突发水灾害应急管理中的多主体合作问题进行了探讨。运用博弈论和数值仿真方法,引入合作效用概念,基于收益不确定下的蜈蚣博弈实验模型构建了突发水灾害应急管理中异质性主体的合作行为博弈模型;在此基础上深入探讨了合作效用变量对突发水灾害应急管理中达成合作可能性的影响;并通过算例进行了数值分析。     

Equivalent Conditions of Complete Moment Convergence of Weighted Sums for ϕ-Mixing Sequence of Random Variables

In this article, the complete moment convergence of weighted sums for ?-mixing sequence of random variables is investigated. By applying moment inequality and truncation methods, the equivalent conditions of complete moment convergence of weighted sums for ?-mixing sequence of random variables are established. These results promote and improve the corresponding results obtained by Li et al. (1995 Li, D.L., Rao, M.B., Jiang, T.F., Wang, X.C. (1995). Complete convergence and almost sure convergence of weighted sums of random variables. J. Theoret. Probab. 8:49–76.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Gut (1993 Gut, A. (1993). Complete convergence and Cesàro summation for i.i.d. random variables. Probab. Theory Related Fields 97:169–178.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) from i.i.d. to ?-mixing setting. Moreover, we obtain the complete moment convergence of moving average processes based on ?-mixing random variables, which extends the result of Kim et al. (2008 Kim, T.S., Ko, M.H. (2008). Complete moment convergence of moving average processes under dependence assumptions. Statist. Probab. Lett. 78:839–846.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in the sense that it does not require a specific mixing rate.     

教师在大学英语听力形成性评价中的作用初探

通过大学英语听力形成性评价方式的实施来观察、研究受试教师在其中所起的作用及所扮演的角色,并检验听力形成性评价方式是否有助于提高学生的听力成绩和听力形成性评价意识。数据分析表明在大学英语教学中实施听力形成性评价不仅能使教师具有与以往不同的作用和角色,还能极大地提高学生的英语听力成绩,学生的听力形成性评价意识也明显增强。     

唐代文学繁荣现象的传播动因

唐代文学的全面繁荣有着多方面的原因,从文学传播的角度入手,将唐文学的传播置于一个完整的传播过程中予以审视,同时,分别从文学传播主体、讯息、传播手段、受传者和传播效果等五要素分析唐代文学传播条件的改善及其对唐文学的发展所起的积极影响,以期说明唐代文学传播的发达对文学繁荣有着巨大的促进作用.     

Maximizing misinformation restriction within time and budget constraints

Online social networks have become popular media worldwide. However, they also allow rapid dissemination of misinformation causing negative impacts to users. With a source of misinformation, the longer the misinformation spreads, the greater the number of affected users will be. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent the spread of misinformation in a specific time period. In this paper, we propose maximizing misinformation restriction (\(\mathsf {MMR}\)) problem with the purpose of finding a set of nodes whose removal from a social network maximizes the influence reduction from the source of misinformation within time and budget constraints. We demonstrate that the \(\mathsf {MMR}\) problem is NP-hard even in the case where the network is a rooted tree at a single misinformation node and show that the calculating objective function is #P-hard. We also prove that objective function is monotone and submodular. Based on that, we propose an \(1{-}1/\sqrt{e}\)-approximation algorithm. We further design efficient heuristic algorithms, named \(\mathsf {PR}\)-\(\mathsf {DAG}\) to show \(\mathsf {MMR}\) in very large-scale networks.     

More Inclusive States,Less Poverty Among Immigrants? An Examination of Poverty,Citizenship Stratification,and State Immigrant Policies

Over the last 20 years, policymaking related to immigrant populations has increasingly been conducted at the state-level. State immigrant polices may influence immigrant poverty by determining immigrants’ level of access to social, economic, political, and health resources and by shaping the social environment. Further, these immigrant policies may shape the stratification between citizens and noncitizens, potentially contributing to distinct patterns of disparities in poverty by both citizenship and race/ethnicity. To assess the relationship between immigrant policy and socioeconomic stratification of immigrants across citizenship status and race/ethnicity in the U.S., we combined data from the 2014 American Community Survey and a measure of level of inclusion of state immigrant policies. We estimated fixed-effects logistic regressions to test the associations between poverty and the interaction of level of inclusiveness, citizenship, and race/ethnicity, controlling for state- and individual-level characteristics. Results showed that there are significant disparities in poverty by citizenship status and race/ethnicity. Asian/Pacific Islander (API) noncitizens experienced lower levels of poverty in states with higher levels of inclusion. Both Latino and API citizens experienced lower levels of poverty in states with higher versus lower levels of inclusion. Among Latinos, the gap in poverty rates between noncitizens and citizens is larger in more inclusive than less inclusive ones, suggesting that the potential positive impact of more inclusive environments does not necessarily translate to the most vulnerable Latino group. The level of inclusion was not associated with differences among Whites and Blacks. Findings suggest that states with more inclusive immigrant policies may foster environments that advance the economic well-being of API noncitizens, as well as API and Latino citizens.     

Beyond organization-centred public relations: Collective action through a civic crowdfunding campaign

Public relations scholars have called for a shift from organization-centred approaches and practices to community, – or collective-based ones. With the Internet, the latter have become more frequent although under-researched or not well understood. This article addresses those gaps by researching a community-based campaign in New Zealand and by underpinning the research with collective action theory. Methodologically, it combines netnography, thematic analysis, and interviews with major players, to analyze a civic crowdfunding campaign. It provides an account of how two amateur activists not only initiated and managed this campaign, but also raised US$1.5 million (NZ$2.27) within three weeks to buy a private beach and gift it back to the New Zealand public. The article seeks to add to both PR scholarship and practice. It adds to the former by analysing the campaign and identifying success factors for civic crowdfunding campaigns more generally; and to the latter by accounting for a different kind of activist and community-based PR that goes beyond organization-centred approaches to offer gratifying community-centered work that improves the reputation of PR for contributing to the common good.