The centenarian question and old-age mortality in the Soviet Union, 1959–1970

Are claims of extraordinarily low mortality levels in the USSR justifiable? Applying a recently developed methodology appropriate for nonstable populations to 1959 and 1970 census data from the Soviet Union, we find that mortality is generally understated for the country as a whole and for various regions and republics. This is particularly so for the republics composing the Central Asian region and the Caucasus. Age overstatement appears to be extremely pronounced in the oldest segments of the population. Using the new methodology, we can derive the age distribution that is uniquely implied by a given life table and a set of age-specific rates of growth obtained from two censuses. When we use the official Soviet life tables in this procedure, we find that the reported number of centenarians is at least 28.9 percent overstated for males and 7.5 percent for females. If one were to posit that Soviet mortality during 1959 to 1970 was, in fact, no better than the Swedish mortality experience during roughly the same time period, then the true number of centenarians could be no more than 2 percent of that reported.     

Gender Differences in Determinants of Self-Rated Health Among African American in Omaha Nebraska: A Church-Based Study

Abstract

This study assessed the gender differences in determinants of fair/poor self-rated health among African American churchgoers in Omaha, Nebraska. Using data collected from 353 African American (245 women and 108 men) by the Center for Reducing Health Disparities at the University of Nebraska Medical Center in 2017, univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to examine the gender differences in the relationships between fair/poor self-rated health and potential health determinants. Overall, 14.3% of women and 17.6% of men reported fair/poor self-rated health. There was a significant association between depression and poor/fair self-rated health among women (p?=?0.044) and men (p?=?0.001). For women, the fully controlled model confirmed the crude association between perceived poor/fair self-rated health and heart disease (OR = 3.10) and education (OR = 2.19). For men, the final model identified significant determinants of perceived fair/poor self-rated health such as depression (OR = 12.51) and diabetes (OR = 3.89). When assessing gender differences in determinants of self-rated health, similarities are higher than differences between the two groups. In both groups, the presence of depression was the strongest determinant of poor health. Future research should assess the immunological aspects of the association between psychological factors and perceived chronic diseases.     

NCWWI Tribal Traineeship Programs: Promoting Diversity in the Child Welfare Workforce

Twelve universities and one American Indian (AI) tribal college were selected for the National Child Welfare Workforce Institute’s 5-year stipend traineeship program. These tribal traineeships were designed to provide social work child welfare education for tribal and nontribal students. Twenty-two AI students and 58 nontribal students completed a bachelor or master’s of social work degree. The students’ field placements were in tribal agencies or public agencies that served a segment of the AI population. These programs were enhanced through the use of valuable relationships (i.e., partnerships, mentorships, allies), and cultural competence was a key aspect of the students’ education. The students’ education was enriched with a specific child welfare curriculum, cultural teachings, tribal traineeship collaborations, and tribal community events.     

Locally optimal test for simultaneously testing the mean and variance of a normal distribution

A generalization of the locally most powerful unbiased (LMPU) test for the single parameter case to the k-parameter case was proposed by SenGupta and Vermeire (1986). In particular we defined a locally most mean power unbiased (LMMPU) test based on the mean curvature of the power hypersurface. Compared to the type C tests of Neyman and Pearson and the type D tests (Isaacson, 1951), LMMPU tests possess better theoretical properties and enjoy ease of construction of critical regions. In this paper we present an interesting example of a two-parameter univariate normal population for which Isaacson (1951, p. 233) was unsuccessful in finding a type D test. For the case of one observation, we prove that no Type D region exists but the LMMPU test is obtained - it is an example of a test with singular Hessian matrix for its power but is nevertheless a strictly locally unbiased (LU) test.     

Identifying the determinants of foreign direct investment: a data-specific model selection approach

In this paper, we examine the potential determinants of foreign direct investment. For this purpose, we apply new exact subset selection procedures, which are based on idealized assumptions, as well as their possibly more plausible empirical counterparts to an international data set to select the optimal set of predictors. Unlike the standard model selection procedures AIC and BIC, which penalize only the number of variables included in a model, and the subset selection procedures RIC and MRIC, which consider also the total number of available candidate variables, our data-specific procedures even take the correlation structure of all candidate variables into account. Our main focus is on a new procedure, which we have designed for situations where some of the potential predictors are certain to be included in the model. For a sample of 73 developing countries, this procedure selects only four variables, namely imports, net income from abroad, gross capital formation, and GDP per capita. An important secondary finding of our study is that the data-specific procedures, which are based on extensive simulations and are therefore very time-consuming, can be approximated reasonably well by the much simpler exact methods.