Violence,life aspirations and displacement trajectories in civil war

Drawing on qualitative data from the civil wars in Syria and Libya since 2011, this paper seeks to build a better understanding of immobility and of displacement trajectories within conflict countries and towards neighbouring countries. The paper shows that different types of violent experiences—personal threats, generalized violence, an increasing hopelessness relating to the absence of violence in the future—trigger different exit movements across internal and external borders. Second, the analysis demonstrates that migration decisions in civil war contexts are complex processes with people balancing between strategies of how to avoid violence with strategies of how to realize broader life aspirations related to family, love, work and political change. Life aspirations often play a more important role once people move out of a situation of immediate danger and in later phases of trajectories and influence (im)mobility patterns in three different directions: stay, move (on) or return. Life aspirations, especially related to political change, outweigh perceptions of violence in some cases. Financial vulnerability can force people to stay in or return to violent contexts.     

FORECASTING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA: EVIDENCE FROM TWEETS ON SOCCER MATCHES

Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8 million posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a microblogging dictionary to analyze the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards. (JEL G14, G17)     

LIMITED ASSET MARKET PARTICIPATION,STICKY WAGES,AND MONETARY POLICY

A small amount of nominal wage stickiness makes limited asset market participation (LAMP) irrelevant for the design of monetary policy. Recent research argues that LAMP could invert the slope of the IS curve in otherwise standard New Keynesian models. This, in turn, implies that optimal monetary policy rules should be passive. We show that the so‐called inverted aggregate demand logic (IADL) relies on nominal wage flexibility. Outside of extreme parameterizations, wage stickiness prevents the inversion of the slope of the IS curve. Hence, LAMP does not generally alter the trade‐offs faced by a welfare maximizing Central Bank, and for this reason it does not fundamentally affect the design of optimal simple rules and optimal monetary policy. (JEL E21, E52)     

Barriers to accessing HIV and sexual health services among gay men in Tasmania,Australia

We examined barriers to accessing HIV and sexual health services among gay and bisexual men (GBM) in Tasmania, Australia, using in-depth interviews. Most participants were satisfied with the care they had received at public sexual health services. Barriers included the limited number of services, concerns about anonymity and privacy in small communities, difficulties accessing services via a general practitioner, and perceived stigma and discrimination. Improving the accessibility and availability of HIV and sexual health services in Tasmania is crucial to promote the engagement of GBM, which could be achieved via combined efforts of government services and community organizations.     

Stigma toward internalizing and externalizing disorders: How do adolescents perceive their peers? A network analysis approach

This study's first aim was to explore whether stigma's facets differ between internalizing and externalizing disorders in adolescence. The second aim was to compare the relationships among stigma's facets toward these disorders. Two vignettes depicting a peer with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) or Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) were used with 616 adolescents in Italy. A Repeated measure MANOVA showed biogenetic causes, social distancing, and discomfort were more attributed to depression, while dangerousness to ADHD. Furthermore, a Psychometric Network Analysis showed no differences between these disorders in the relations among stigma's components. However, dangerousness seemed to be among the nodes with the highest levels of “strength,” confirming previous literature that shows that dangerousness plays a major role in stigma.     

The psychology and behavioural economics of poverty

The paper provides an overview and assessment of an emerging literature on the psychology and behavioural economics of poverty. We particularly highlight poverty experiences, role of neighbourhoods, poverty dynamics and transmission, child poverty and disability and personal finance. In addition we consider psychology and policy responses by looking and autonomy and empowerment, and poverty reduction programs. Our central thesis is that the detailed knowledge of individual experiences, cognitions and social factors in psychology and related social science complements the traditional economic emphasis on structural factors and policy instruments in a way that is exemplified by emerging work in behavioural economics. We conclude it is increasingly recognised that poverty reduction policies which are informed by behavioural insights may, as a result, be more effective.     

Declaring Conflict of Interest – Current State of Affairs in the Ophthalmic Literature

The importance of transparency with financial ties in biomedical research is widely recognized, and most peer-reviewed journals require declarations of Conflicts of Interest (COI). Nonetheless, variability in the consistency of declarations of COI has been sparsely assessed. To assess consistency and rates of COI declarations in the ophthalmic literature and the effectiveness of journal COI policies. We analyzed consistency and completeness of declaration of COI in the ophthalmic literature and compared the levels of completeness to specific journal requirements. Six-hundred forty-two peer reviewed articles satisfied the inclusion criteria. In 64%, COIs were unreported, in 25% declaration of COI was incomplete, and 11% of the articles reviewed had complete declaration of COI. Of the 33 journals in which the most frequently published authors’ articles appeared, 10 required the authors to complete the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) form or an equivalent form, but this did not affect the rates of COI declaration. In a random sampling of the most frequently published authors in the field of ophthalmology, declaration of COI was low and highly inconsistent. Requiring a standardized COI form has no significant effect on the rate of accurate COI reporting. Our findings lend support to the growing body of literature that shows that journals and editors may need to take a more active role in ensuring accurate and consistent COI reporting.     

Identification,Estimation, and Control of Uncertain Dynamic Systems: A Nonparametric Approach

This article is devoted to a presentation of the author' practice of the non-parametric estimation theory for the estimation, filtering, and control of uncertain dynamic systems. The fundamental advantage of this approach is a weak dependency on prior modeling assumptions about uncertain dynamic components. This approach appears to be of great interest for the control of general discrete-time processes, and in particular, biotechnological processes, which are emblematic of nonlinear uncertain and partially observed systems.     

A neural network clustering model for miscellaneous components production planning

The growing importance of providing service to customers, e.g. post-sale assistance, supplying of spare parts, upgrading and integration of new elements in installed systems, enhances the importance of planning and management of upgrading parts in most manufacturing industries. These parts are generally characterized by high technical heterogeneity and have a highly variable and difficult to forecast demand. In some areas (especially the most dynamic, e.g. high-tech products), these kinds of components are quite common, and represent a very strong relation between the manufacturing firm and the market. These parts are generally too many to be efectively supported on a planning database system with individual records and too heterogeneous ( and sometimes with a too high value) to be supported all together in a single record. In this paper, we want to study the application of adaptive techniques for the clustering of these components in classes based on the similarities in their market behaviour in order to build an optimal database for planning production and supplying of these components.