Trends in marijuana and other illicit drug use among college students: results from 4 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study surveys: 1993-2001

The authors examined changes in college students' illicit drug use, patterns of polydrug use, and the relationship between students' ages of initiation of substance use and later use of marijuana and other illicit drugs between 1993 and 2001. Data from 119 US colleges and universities in the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study were used in the study. They found significant increases in percentages of students' use of marijuana in the past 30 days (from 13% to 17%), past year (from 23% to 30%), and lifetime (from 41% to 47%) between 1993 and 2001, with most of the increase occurring between 1993 and 1997. Past 30-day use of other illicit drugs increased from 4% to 7% and past year use increased from 11% to 14%. More than 98% of marijuana and other illicit drug users used another substance. They also either smoked, were binge drinkers, and/or were users of another illicit drug. Drug prevention programs should emphasize heavy alcohol use and smoking and should start when students are in high school or earlier.     

Meeting summary--cell biology of Parkinson's disease and related neurodegenerative disorders

Parkinsonian disorders (idiopathic Parkinson's disease and clinically similar disorders) are characterized by impaired movements caused by the degeneration of brain centers involved in regulating normal and smooth movements of the body and its extremities. The mechanisms that cause such degeneration are unknown. This Perspective summarizes research described at a meeting held in June 2003, which was organized by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and the National Institute on Aging to provide an update on recent advances in the cell biology of parkinsonian disorders.     

Influence Diagnostics for Simultaneous Equations Models

This paper presents influence diagnostics for simultaneous equations models. It proposes residuals, leverage and other influence measures. A missing data method is adopted to minimize the masking effect due to case deletions. The assessment of local influence is also considered. The paper shows how to evaluate the effects that perturbations to the endogenous variables, predetermined variables and case weights may have on the parameter estimates. The diagnostics are illustrated with two examples.     

Thinking possibilistically in a probabilistic world

We cannot live on the knife edge of disaster all the time. We cannot even think about disastrous extremes with any clarity, says Lee Clarke . For 300 years we have equated thinking probabilistically with thinking rationally, but is that enough for thinking about terrorism, air crashes—or even God?     

Breast‐Feeding Advocacy,Risk Society and Health Moralism: A Decade’s Scholarship

This article reviews research published this century that engages critically with the mantra ‘Breast is Best’ and the associated expansion of official breast‐feeding promotion programmes. In recent years there has been a marked increase in the number of such studies published. They mostly explore experience in English speaking, industrialised countries (the US, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Great Britain) which are in some social and cultural respects dissimilar, yet where very similar developments and problems are detected in regards to breast‐feeding promotion. We highlight how this exploration of breast‐feeding promotion internationally has developed understanding of wider sociological themes. This scholarship, we suggest, has provided a powerful illustration of the relation between risk society (more particularly a heightened consciousness of risk) and the evolution of a code of conduct that regulates behaviour, that has been termed ‘health moralizm’. The article covers three themes: ‘Science, risk society, authority and choice’; ‘Public health policy and infant feeding’; and ‘Moralization and women’s identity work’. We conclude that the research discussed shows how the sociological imagination continues to shed light on the relation between private troubles and public issues. We also suggest one conclusion that can be drawn from this research is that official discourse and everyday maternal experience appear increasingly distant from each other.     

Random-effect models with singular precision

We show that smoothing spline, intrinsic autoregression (IAR) and state-space model can be formulated as partially specified random-effect model with singular precision (SP). Various fitting methods have been suggested for the aforementioned models and this paper investigates the relationships among them, once the models have been placed under a single framework. Some methods have been previously shown to give the best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) under some random-effect models and here we show that they are in fact uniformly BLUPs (UBLUPs) under a class of models that are generated by the SP of random effects. We offer some new interpretations of the UBLUPs under models of SP and define BLUE and BLUP in these partially specified models without having to specify the covariance. We also show how the full likelihood inferences for random-effect models can be made for these models, so that the maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimators can be used for the smoothing parameters in splines, etc.     

A divergence test for autoregressive time series models

In this paper, we study the normality test for the innovations of unstable autoregressive models based on the divergence test. In order to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the tests, we use the link between the divergence test and the residual empirical process. Simulation results are provided for illustration.     

奖金激励与学术成果——来自浙江大学SCI论文奖励效果的证据

本文利用浙江大学的数据,讨论奖金激励对高校论文产出的影响.浙大在1999、2003和2005年做了学术激励机制改革,对SCI论文按影响因子大小分区和分等,对在高影响因子的SCI期刊发表论文给予相对更高的奖励.其后,浙江大学教师发表的高水平SCI论文的数量和比例出现显著的增加.进一步分析后发现,浙大学术生产力的提升,并不是由于浙江大学引进了更多“高水平”学者,而是因为激励制度产生了效果.本文的发现,对高校的管理机制改革,有现实指导意义.     

Who Is to Blame for Deviance in Organizations? The Role of Scholarly Worldviews

This paper explores two of the most important challenges facing contemporary scholars who seek to assign blame for deviance in organizational contexts. The first concerns the selection of an appropriate level of analysis. The second focuses on the social meaning of intent, or willfulness, also called mens rea in criminal trials. We suggest that scholarly worldviews play a central role in determining how these issues are discussed in the literature, thereby impacting the assignment of blame. Throughout, we use the case of the Tuskegee syphilis study to illustrate key issues.     

Becoming Self-Employed

This study explored how persons become self-employed. In critical incident interviews (Flanagan, 1954) with 5 self-employed persons, the critical events that assisted or hindered progress toward self-employment were elicited in chronological order. First, the 108 incidents were organized into 22 categories. Next, using the chronological order of categories of events, 2 basic patterns or plots for becoming self-employed were identified. Last, 8 distinctive themes of personal progress in the patterns were described. In general, becoming self-employed involved establishing conditions of action that enhanced a sense of agency, enabling each person to make a decision.