Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach

The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies. However, due to complicated nature of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) poverty risk estimates are published with a 2–3 years delay. This paper presents a method that can be used to estimate (“nowcast”) the current at-risk-of-poverty rate for the European Union (EU) countries based on EU-SILC microdata from a previous period. The EU tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD is used for this purpose in combination with up to date macro-level statistics. The method is validated by using EU-SILC data for 2007 incomes to estimate at-risk-of-poverty rates for 2008–2012 and to compare the predictions with actual EU-SILC and other external statistics. The method is tested on eight EU countries which are among those experiencing the most volatile economic conditions within the period: Estonia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania.     

POPULISM AND SPECTACLE

In On Populist Reason Ernesto Laclau proposes that the reputedly ‘empty’ rhetorical excess of populism constitutes the ontological and aesthetic ground on which the existence of an entity called ‘the people’ depends. This essay considers the tensions and affinities between the particular set of aesthetic relations that Laclau attributes to populist rhetoric, on the one hand, and the set of apparently techno-economic relations that Guy Debord describes as the logic of spectacle in The Society of the Spectacle, on the other, arguing that Laclau's conception of populism compels us to recast the ontological problem of the relation that Debord describes between the social and the spectacular in expressly aesthetic terms. Beginning from this premise, the essay contends that the ‘empty’ aesthetic conventions likewise associated with spectacular entertainment – and in particular, the staging of the relation between audience and onstage spectacle that defines the variety showcase aesthetic in this account – enact a set of tropic relations that constitutes the audience as a generalized figure of ‘the people’ in much the same terms as Laclau's rhetoric. Tracing this aesthetic logic through an especially charged performance from the history of blackface minstrelsy, the essay concludes by considering how such a staging of the relation between populism and spectacle might challenge the dominant models for understanding what constitutes ‘popular’ aesthetic form within Cultural Studies, and in the process, afford new critical insights into the formal dimension of Laclau's political logic.     

Neither Silent nor Invisible: A Comparison of Two Participative Projects Involving Older Lesbians and Gay Men in the United Kingdom

This article offers a comparative review of two participative projects involving older lesbians and gay men (OLG) in different parts of the United Kingdom. Both projects set out to promote local networks of OLGs, support and facilitate their input and commentary on local services and act as a prototype model of consultation that might be taken up and used in other areas. The authors review some of the challenges and achievements of each project and critically compare the two initiatives. Discussion of each stage of the projects includes an appraisal of the relative strengths and weaknesses of their different elements. Emphasis is placed upon the concern to involve OLGs at every level and stage of each project and how this was achieved. Reference to relevant policy provides a backdrop to a discussion of the practical considerations in setting up time-limited projects of this nature. Consideration of some of the outcomes of each project with emphasis upon the implications for utilising similar participative approaches in future consultation and inclusion initiatives is provided.     

Using a stress audit: The construction site manager experience in the UK

Abstract

The aim of this study was to conduct a stress audit among construction industry site managers in the UK as a precursor to a stress management intervention programme. Qualitative data were obtained from in-dept interviews with a total of 36 male middle and senior construction site managers; and aquantitative data were obtained by questionnaire. Based on the analysis of 561 postal quenstionnaires, eight stressor factors were identified, most significantly, ambiguity (i.e. role and task). Job satisfaction levels were low compared to a normative population and influenced by grade level. Measures of mental health were similar to the norm for males, but both grade of management and type of contract affected mental health. Anxiety levels were signficantly high, independent of managerial grade. The stress of work overload and role insecurity (fear of failure) were associated with reduced mental health and high anxiety, and the stress of the organizational culture and climate was the strongest predictor of job dissatisfaction. There was some cause for concern for the vulnerable high-risk groups, i.e. the extreme type A and those working overtime. Medical data from a small subset of managers (n = 78) revealed that this group evidenced a better quality of psychological health than the group in total; but a high percentage of personnel had high levels of triglycerides and cholesterol. Recommendations for action focused on the needs of specific subgroups, and guided the organization on the acceptability of possible interventions at individual, interpersonal and organizational levels.     

Consumer-Phase Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis Risk Assessment for Egg-Containing Food Products

We describe a one-dimensional probabilistic model of the role of domestic food handling behaviors on salmonellosis risk associated with the consumption of eggs and egg-containing foods. Six categories of egg-containing foods were defined based on the amount of egg contained in the food, whether eggs are pooled, and the degree of cooking practiced by consumers. We used bootstrap simulation to quantify uncertainty in risk estimates due to sampling error, and sensitivity analysis to identify key sources of variability and uncertainty in the model. Because of typical model characteristics such as nonlinearity, interaction between inputs, thresholds, and saturation points, Sobol's method, a novel sensitivity analysis approach, was used to identify key sources of variability. Based on the mean probability of illness, examples of foods from the food categories ranked from most to least risk of illness were: (1) home-made salad dressings/ice cream; (2) fried eggs/boiled eggs; (3) omelettes; and (4) baked foods/breads. For food categories that may include uncooked eggs (e.g., home-made salad dressings/ice cream), consumer handling conditions such as storage time and temperature after food preparation were the key sources of variability. In contrast, for food categories associated with undercooked eggs (e.g., fried/soft-boiled eggs), the initial level of Salmonella contamination and the log10 reduction due to cooking were the key sources of variability. Important sources of uncertainty varied with both the risk percentile and the food category under consideration. This work adds to previous risk assessments focused on egg production and storage practices, and provides a science-based approach to inform consumer risk communications regarding safe egg handling practices.     

The social relations of bereavement in the Caribbean

The objectives of this article are to discuss the various types of behaviors associated with grief and bereavement, and to examine the relationships, consequences, and outcomes of bereavement practices among the various religious and ethnic groups in the English-speaking Caribbean Islands of Jamaica, Trinidad, Grenada, and Barbados. The rituals associated with death and grief differs across cultures and is greatly influenced by religious beliefs and traditions. How these rituals are played out depend on the culture of origin and level of acculturation of the various groups into mainstream society. In the Caribbean region, expressions of grief represent religious and cultural traditions that may have a significant impact on social relations, particularly in multi-ethnic and multicultural societies. In the English-speaking Caribbean Islands of Jamaica, Trinidad, Grenada, and Barbados, mourning follows the patterns of traditional religious practices which have remained consistent over time. While families and friends may offer social support before and after burial or cremation, the social aspects of bereavement may also have implications for inter-group relations. Insights into bereavement practices and what it holds for ethnic and religious groups in contemporary Caribbean are presented.     

Roadmap to recovery: Reporting on a research taskforce supporting Indigenous responses to COVID‐19 in Australia

In April 2020 a Group of Eight Taskforce was convened, consisting of over 100 researchers, to provide independent, research‐based recommendations to the Commonwealth Government on a “Roadmap to Recovery” from COVID‐19. The report covered issues ranging from pandemic control and relaxation of social distancing measures, to well‐being and special considerations for vulnerable populations. Our work focused on the critical needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities; this paper presents an overview of our recommendations to the Roadmap report. In addressing the global challenges posed by pandemics for citizens around the world, Indigenous people are recognised as highly vulnerable. At the time of writing Australia's First Nations Peoples have been largely spared from COVID‐19 in comparison to other Indigenous populations globally. Our recommendations emphasise self‐determination and equitable needs‐based funding to support Indigenous communities to recover from COVID‐19, addressing persistent overcrowded housing, and a focus on workforce, especially for regional and remote communities. These latter two issues have been highlighted as major issues of risk for Indigenous communities in Australia It remains to be seen how governments across Australia take up these recommendations to support Indigenous peoples' health and healing journey through yet another, potentially catastrophic, health crisis.