Moments of the decisive sample number and of the average time to termination of sequential tests

The moments of the decisive sample number and of the average time to termination of sequential tests are derived. All moments depend only on the probability of continuation of the sequential test at each step, or at each instant of time for time processes. Two theorems are proved. Although the second theorem may be proved by quoting a result used in Barlow and Proschan (1965), p. 33, or both theorems from a lemma in Govindarajulu (1975), pp. 518-519, the author’s direct proofs illuminate the results.     

Kolmogorov–Smirnov,Fluctuation, and Z g Tests for Convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Draws

We examine the sizes and powers of three tests of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo draws: the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, fluctuation test, and Geweke's test. We show that the sizes and powers are sensitive to the existence of autocorrelation in the draws. We propose a filtered test that is corrected for autocorrelation. We present a numerical illustration using the Federal funds rate.     

Explaining the Flight of Cupid’s Arrow: A Spatial Random Utility Model of Partner Choice

Spatial homogamy may be defined as follows: anyone may be attracted to anyone else, but near candidates are more attractive than distant candidates. In this article, we propose a model of partner choice, where homogamy is defined in terms of spatial, demographic, socioeconomic and cultural similarity. A spatial choice model using random utility theory is formulated, taking into account a relaxation of the independence from the irrelevant alternatives property, as spatial alternatives are not independent of one another. We model partner choice given the characteristics of the chosen partner and a choice set of alternatives, using unique micro data on all new cohabiters in the Netherlands, linked to other relevant data sets. The model takes the spatial locations of potential candidates within a choice set into account, including an indicator for the spatial similarity between alternatives. We find that spatial homogamy is a vital component of partner matching, aside from and adding to the spatial effects in demographic, socioeconomic and cultural homogamy. Given a choice set of partners, the highest likelihood of a match occurs with a person who is born and lives near by, who is close in age, is in the same life stage and has the same marital status, who has the same educational and income level and the same labour market status, who speaks the same dialect and lives in a culturally similar residential area. The distance effect is most pronounced for those individuals with lower levels of education and those living in rural areas.     

确定含油气面积存在的问题及正确的方法

本文对传统的石油地质理论定义的含油气面积提出了异议,用倒转背斜油气藏、断层下盘油气藏和不整合面下油气藏的实例阐明在传统定义下确定含油气面积存在的问题,指出用这种方法确定的含油气面积小于实际面积。笔者将含油气面积定义为含油气体在水平面上的投影区域,并推荐了三种正确的确定方法、     

Electing a parliament

We present a model where a society elects candidates belonging to two parties to a national parliament. The electoral rule determines the seats distribution between the two parties. The policy outcome is a function of the number of seats the two parties win in the election. We analyze two electoral rules, multidistrict majority and single district proportional. We prove that under both systems there is a unique pure strategy perfect equilibrium outcome. We compare the outcomes under the two systems.     

From ‘whiteman in rags’ to revolutionary nationalist: Patrice Lumumba 1925–1960 1

Patrice Emery Lumumba (1925–1961) is perhaps the most famous leader of African independence. After his murder in 1961, he became an icon of anti‐imperialist struggle. His picture was brandished on demonstrations across the world, together with those other faces of the 1960s, Che Guevara and Mao Tse‐Tung. The subject of this article is the life of Patrice Lumumba before he came to power in 1960. Lumumba was born in Kasai province in the centre of the Belgian Congo. After a few years of intermittent schooling, he left for the regional capital Stanleyville, where he became a post office clerk. Soon Lumumba became a prominent member of the évolue, those Africans hand‐chosen by the Belgians to run the colonial state. As the pace of political change quickened in the 1950s, he became an unruly subject and underwent a fascinating transformation – from praising the Belgian’s civilising mission in the Congo to radical nationalism. Most academic work is based on the last dramatic year in Lumumba’s life. Based on original interviews and sources largely unknown to an English‐reading audience, this article argues for the importance of understanding Lumumba’s entire life to make sense of his rapid political evolution and the trajectory of political change in the Congo.     

Inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to population–environment research for sustainability aims: a review and appraisal

The causes and consequences of demographic changes for the environment, and the possible ways of influencing population dynamics to achieve ‘sustainability’, have been the subject of many debates in science and policy in recent decades. However, the body of knowledge concerning relationships between population dynamics and sustainability is quite fragmented, dispersed over many disciplines, and encompasses diverse theories, paradigms and methodologies. This paper reviews four selected frameworks: linear, multiplicative, mediated, and system-theoretical approaches and perspectives. We represent how population–environment relationships are conceptualized, provide examples of research questions and accepted approaches, and critically assess their utility for different sorts of research for sustainable development. We note the growing recognition of the value of embracing complexity in population–environment research, and how this is consistent with normative aims of development.     

Mortality Differentials by Marital Status: An International Comparison

Although the greater longevity of married people as compared with unmarried persons has been demonstrated repeatedly, there have been very few studies of a comparative nature. We use log-linear rate models to analyze marital-status-specific death rates for a large number of developed countries. The results indicate that divorced persons, especially divorced men, have the highest death rates among the unmarried groups of the respective genders; the excess mortality of unmarried persons relative to the married has been generally increasing over the past two to three decades; and divorced and widowed persons in their twenties and thirties have particularly high risks of dying, relative to married persons of the same age. In addition, the analysis suggests that a selection process is operating with regard to single and divorced persons: the smaller the proportion of persons who never marry or who are divorced, the higher the resulting death rates.     

Beware the angry leader: Trait anger and trait anxiety as predictors of petty tyranny

Drawing on the general aggression model and theories of victimization and temperamental goodness-of-fit, we investigated trait anger and trait anxiety as antecedents of petty tyranny: employing a multilevel design with data from 84 sea captains and 177 crew members. Leader trait anger predicted subordinate-reported petty tyranny. Subordinate trait anxiety was associated with subordinate-reported petty tyranny. The association between leader trait anger and subordinate-reported petty tyranny was strongest among low trait anger subordinates supporting the theory of temperamental goodness-of-fit—or rather misfit—in dyads. Hence, leader anger-generated petty tyranny seems to constitute itself both as an average leadership style and as behavior targeting specific subordinates, in this case low trait anger subordinates. In addition, anxious subordinates report more exposure to such abusive leadership behaviors irrespective of levels of trait anger in the captain. The practical implications are above all the needs for organizational and individual management of leader trait anger.     

Telecommunication and suicide prevention: hopes and challenges for the new century

Development of information technology has created new opportunities and challenges in suicide prevention, research, and clinical practice. This article presents an overview of the wide range of telecommunication-based suicide prevention approaches. Interventions using the Internet, telephone, and videoconferencing are discussed, including crisis intervention, referral, and support, suicide risk assessment, psychotherapy for individuals at risk, and online-based suicide prevention training and education. Research regarding effectiveness of telecommunication-based suicide prevention in various demographic and clinical populations is reviewed, as well as concerns regarding this type of intervention. Future areas of research and development in the use of telecommunication media in prevention of suicide are discussed.