On the age-sex composition of the population that would result from given fertility and mortality conditions

This article presents new formulas for calculating the eventual sex-ratio and the eventual age-sea composition of the population that would result from given fertility and mortality conditions. These formulas provide more accurate methods and are more widely applicable than earlier methods. The application of the formulas is illustrated through the use of available data on fertility and mortality conditions in the United States in 1964.     

How to Analyze Survey Data Pertaining to the Time Bind, and How Not to Analyze Such Data

This note considers various ways of analyzing survey data pertaining to a central thesis of The Time Bind (Hochschild, 1997), and it comments on the particular analysis presented by Brown and Booth (2002). The following kinds of problems will be discussed here: (1) problems pertaining to the measurement of concepts, (2) problems pertaining to the selection of the data to be analyzed, and (3) problems pertaining to the selection of the statistical models to be used in the analysis. Appropriate methods for dealing with each of these three kinds of problems are introduced and described in the present note. When these appropriate methods are compared with the particular methods applied by Brown and Booth (2002), we find fault with the latter methods. Our attention in this note is focused on the analysis of data pertaining to a central thesis of The Time Bind , but the general approach presented here can also be applied more generally to study other theses of interest in the social sciences.     

引来的浪漫主义:重读郁达夫《沉沦》中的三篇小说

郁达夫的小说集《沉沦》是引来的浪漫主义作品。其中的小说《沉沦》、《南迁》、《银灰色的死》包含大量的对德国和英国浪漫主义作家作品的引用。与一般五四作家引用西方文学不同,郁达夫不是仅仅停留在表面的引证上,或认同西方作家并以此为榜样,而是把他喜爱的西方文学作品注入自己作品的内容和形式之中。虽然郁达夫没能把西方文学的文本放进他的小说后作进一步的创造性转化,从而为中国现代文学开出另一个现代主义写作传统,但是,他的这种史无前例的西方文学的文本引用,至今看来依然可圈可点。     

Alert Opening and Closing: Mennonite Rural-Urban Changes1

Minorities adjust to society by shifting strategies. Survey samples in the United States and Canada indicate that Mennonites are becoming more urban, professional, and mobile. Good closing, such as support of religious values, norms, beliefs, morals, and practice, is stronger in rural areas than in the city. As urbanization increases, good opening, such as political participation and equal treatment of women and races, also rises between 1972 and 1989. Mennonites demonstrate effective reinforcement in continuous oscillation between relative openness and closedness in their resilient adjustments to intake of information.     

Modelling Regional Immigration: Using Stocks to Predict Flows

This paper explores thefeasibility of improving regional internationalmigration assumptions by analysing therelationship between international migrationflows and foreign population structures.Regional projection models are discussed andempirically tested using data for Sweden. Theresults show that regional assumptions oninternational migration of foreigners could beimproved by using the spatial distribution ofstocks of foreigners as predictor.Improvements, however, are only minor and donot seem to compensate for the loss insimplicity of the models. This is especiallytrue at the aggregate level of immigrantgroups. Only for relatively new immigrantgroups, improvements are substantial.     

Retail point-of-sale guardianship and juvenile tobacco purchases: assessing the prevention capabilities of undergraduate college students

This randomized experiment evaluates the attitudes and behavioral intentions of 458 undergraduate college students about intervening with the intent of preventing an illegal retail purchase of tobacco products by a minor after exposure to a factorial combination of three pieces of information. MANOVA results show that none of the treatment conditions, considered alone, are correlated with increased attitudes or behavioral intentions; however, there is a significant interaction effect on attitudes when information portraying a potentially annoying situation is combined with information about the costs associated with youth tobacco use. Post-hoc t tests suggest that this effect is concentrated among non-tobacco using respondents.     

Assessment of physical exposures and comparison of exposure definitions in a repetitive sawmill occupation: trim-saw operator

This paper describes the physical exposures required to perform a sawmill job associated with a high incidence of upper extremity musculoskeletal injury. Exposure variables are described by multiple posture, exertion and frequency definitions and the comparability of those definitions are examined. Effective industrial prevention efforts require an accurate assessment of risk. Surface electromyography and electrogoniometry were used to quantify the physical exposures of 29 trim-saw operators in four sawmill facilities. Average wrist ranges of motion of 32, 57 and 58 degrees in wrist radial/ulnar deviation, flexion/extension and pronation/supination respectively were required to perform the job. Defining wrist range of motion by the peak postures observed versus those required to perform the primary task resulted in significantly different ranges of motion (p<0.05). Job performance required an average of 33% of maximum voluntary contraction. Repetitions per day ranged from 3,549 to 14,460. Percentage of maximum voluntary contraction was not associated with psychophysical measures of exertion.     

A Preliminary Study of Body Image and HIV Sexual Risk Behavior in Black Gay and Bisexual Men: Implications for HIV Prevention

Nearly three decades since the onset of the AIDS epidemic, Black gay and bisexual men (BGBM) experience increasingly disproportionate rates of HIV and AIDS in the United States. The aim of this exploratory research investigation was to examine the relationship between body image and HIV sexual risk behavior in a community-based sample of 481 BGBM in the New York metropolitan area. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that men with a negative body image were less likely to use condoms during anal intercourse with a male sexual partner as compared to those respondents with a positive body image. These findings pose considerable implications for the influence of body image on HIV sexual risk behavior in BGBM.     

Student resistance and the democratic transition: student politics in Senegal 1999–2005

University students participated in the democratic transition in Senegal that, throughout the 1990s, saw student activists across the continent advocate for political change. This paper examines the role students played in the election of the new government in Senegal in 2000 and the years that followed. Many student activists in Senegal argued that they were responsible for the changement politique, that saw the first defeat of the ruling Socialist Party since independence in 1960 and the victory of Abdoulaye Wade – ‘papa sopi’ (‘the father of change’). The paper considers the relationship of students to the new governments. It argues that students in Senegal, and across the continent, have played a vital role in political transformations, though not in circumstances chosen by them.