Estimating time to detect time trends in continuous cropping

SUMMARY In long-term field trials comparing different sequences of crops and husbandry practices, the identification and understanding of trends in productivity over time is an important issue of sustainable crop production. This paper presents a statistical technique for the estimation of time trends in yield variables of a seasonal annual crop under continuous cropping. The estimation procedure incorporates the correlation structure, which is assumed to follow first-order autocorrelation in the errors that arise over time on the same plot. Because large differences in annual rainfall have a major effect on crop performance, rainfall has been allowed for in the estimation of the time trends. Expressions for the number of years (time) required to detect statistically significant time trends have been obtained. Illustrations are based on a 7-year data set of grain and straw yields from a trial in northern Syria. Although agronomic interpretation is not intended in this paper, the barley yield data indicated that a significant time trend can apparently be detected even in a suboptimal data set of 7 years' duration.     

‘We Can All Just Get on a Bus and Go’: Rethinking Independent Mobility in the Context of the Universal Provision of Free Bus Travel to Young Londoners

This paper uses qualitative data from interviews with 118 young Londoners (age 12–18) to examine how the universal provision of free bus travel has affected young people’s independent mobility. Drawing on Sen’s capabilities approach, we argue that free bus travel enhanced young Londoners’ capabilities to shape their daily mobility, both directly by increasing financial access and indirectly by facilitating the acquisition of the necessary skills, travelling companions and confidence. These capabilities in turn extended both opportunity freedoms (e.g. facilitating non-‘necessary’ recreational and social trips) and process freedoms (e.g. feeling more independent by decreasing reliance on parents). Moreover, the universal nature of the entitlement rendered buses a socially inclusive way for groups to travel and spend time together, thereby enhancing group-level capabilities. We believe this attention to individual and group capabilities for self-determination provides the basis for a broader and more child-centred view of independent mobility than the typical research focus upon travelling without an adult and acquiring parental permissions.     

Medical Negligence and Resource Allocation in the NHS

The recent growth in medical malpractice claims and in awards for damages has created concern both amongst doctors and health administrators. Steps which have been taken by the Review Body on Doctors’and Dentists’Remuneration and policy now advocated by the BMA suggest a movement away from the current system of negligence and towards a stricter no-fault system of liability. Under the current system, medical negligence occurs when doctors have not met the standards of treatment expected by reference to current professional standards. Under a no-fault system patients would be entitled to compensation for losses which arise from treatment, irrespective of whether negligence had occurred; although the implication is that the amounts of compensation would necessarily be limited. While there are reasons to believe that financial difficulties for doctors and pressures on NHS budgets may be ameliorated by a no-fault system, there are other criteria against which the current system of negligence should be judged. This article attempts to provide a framework within which a negligence system may be assessed. In particular, attention is drawn to the educative role of a negligence system and to the provision of information which may improve decisions on resource allocation. A critique of the current system of medical negligence in the UK suggests that a package of reforms to improve the system would be better than further movements towards non-market solutions.     

The social and demographic impact of the Southeast Asian Crisis of 1997–99

When an unexpected financial crisis overtook Southeast Asia in 1997 planners and policymakers feared that the economic difficulties would unwind two decades of remarkable economic and social development. Newspaper headlines spoke of massive increases in poverty, unemployment and malnutrition, and it was speculated that family planning programs would collapse and fertility would rise dramatically. Infant and child mortality and maternal mortality were also expected to increase. This paper briefly reviews the onset of the financial crisis as a background for assessing whether speculations about die demographic and social effects tallied with reality. It is found that these effects were neither as dramatic nor as easy to monitor as some of the public debate implied. The general lesson is that the most serious social and demographic problems were not so much the products of crisis as embedded in chronic weaknesses that had become entrenched in times of economic growth. The crisis exposed these weaknesses.