Limitations on the Usefulness of Risk Assessment

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is now regarded as an essential component in the analysis of risks arising from installations classified as major hazards. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of the results in decision-making in practical situations. The use made of QRA in three contrasting cases which came to extensive public attention in the U.K. is examined. The first concerned an extension of domestic development near a chemical factory; the second an extension to a large petrochemical complex; and the third to a proposal to build a pressurized water reactor. The two public inquiries concerned with the chemical industry accepted standards of individual risk which were comparable to the risks from everyday accidents; the evidence of societal risk that could arise from major accidents at the petrochemical complex was compared with that of a local natural hazard — flooding. Higher standards of individual safety were set in the inquiry into the PWR proposal, and the definition of societal risk was debated at length. The QRA results were analyzed to show that risks arising from accidents were lower than those from normal operations, but they were used explicitly as a check on the overall safety of the design and of the operational and licensing organization. Such qualitative examination will always be required in addition to QRA. All these inquiries were faced with considerable technical argument. There is a need for the full details of risk calculations to be clear. The usefulness of QRA as an input to decision-making would be much enhanced if the technical points at issue could be clarified outside a formal public inquiry. In addition, there are some technical questions which apply to many installations. There should be better mechanisms of technical debate to achieve a measure of agreement on the optimum methods of calculation in these cases, and some possibilities are explored.     

Extensions to the sociology of the inept

This paper draws on the satire of Joseph Heller'sCatch-22 to examine the arguments posed by William J. Goode's analysis of the function of the inept in social life. Drawing on methodology developed in our earlier paper onCatch-22 (“Social Death: or What Happened to Doc Daneeka?”) this paper shows first the depiction of Major Major Major Major's group relationships which are useful in developing ideas which further Goode's essentially functionalist orientation; and second how other material from the novel extends the functionalist direction and presents an entirely new look at the sociology of the inept. Essentially, Goode argues that in any society groups resolve the tension between the protection of the inept and the protection of the groups from the inept. An argument introduced fromCatch-22 submits that individuals actively choose to participate in the process of being inept.     

INTERORGANIZATIONAL RELATIONS AND COMMUNITY INFLUENCE STRUCTURE

This study examines the continuity of organizational and leader networks and community elite structure by replicating a study carried out 12 years earlier. Continuity of structure in the organizational bases of in fluence, in the leaders identified as influentials, and in the organizational and leader networks in the community is looked for. It is concluded that there is continuity in the bases and structure of influence and that the ability to exercise influence is related to access to organizational resources. A contrast of organization and leader networks suggests a shift from narrow organizational interests to business class interests.     

Variance reduction for quantile estimates in simulations via nonlinear controls

Linear controls are a well known simple technique for achieving variance reduction in computer simulation. Unfortunately the effectiveness of a linear control depends upon the correlation between the statistic of interest and the control, which is often low. Since statistics often have a nonlinear relation-ship with the potential control variables, nonlinear controls offer a means for improvement over linear controls. This paper focuses on the use of nonlinear controls for reducing the variance of quantile estimates in simulation. It is shown that one can substantially reduce the analytic effort required to develop a nonlinear control from a quantile estimator by using a strictly monotone transformation to create the nonlinear control. It is also shown that as one increases the sample size for the quantile estimator, the asymptotic multivariate normal distribution of the quantile of interest and the control reduces the effectiveness of the nonlinear control to that of the linear control. However, the data has to be sectioned to obtain an estimate of the variance of the controlled quantile estimate. Graphical methods are suggested for selecting the section size that maximizes the effectiveness of the nonlinear control     

Silence in the Context of 'Child Voice'

Recent decades have seen growing enthusiasm internationally for the concept and practice of 'child voice'. This was encapsulated in, and stimulated, by Article 12 of the 1989 United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child. This article presents the case for incorporating the equally important concept of 'child silence' in both research and applied contexts. 'Child voice' has become a powerful moral crusade and consequently criticism of voice has been muted. This is despite the growing articulation of reservations about 'child voice' in various research and applied contexts. Two particular sets of emerging concerns are discussed: one set is around the purposes behind such engagement with children; and one set relates to the ethical protocols involved. Finally, the article makes a series of recommendations for researchers working in the fields of 'child voice'. These concern five methodological aspects: recognising, noting, responding to, interpreting and reporting silence from children. It is concluded that it is timely to take a step back from assumed support for 'child voice' as necessarily 'a good thing'. Rather, we need to consider more reflexively how, why and when 'child voice' is realised in co-constructed research and professional contexts.     

Stress and the London Regional Transport train driver

This study was carried out to identify and assess possible sources of stress in London Regional Transport train drivers caused by the introduction of one person operation (OPO) on the Metropolitan Line of the London Underground. OPO involves combining the duties of the driver and guard. The drivers' reactions to this possibly stressful situation were assessed through interview, using a sample of one-third (18) of the affected driven, and by analysis of possible organizational outcomes, such as sickness absence and failures, delays and accidents on the line. No experience of stress by the drivers as a result of OPO was indicated by these data; however, it was possible to make recommendations for improving the driver's cab on the basis of the study.     

Network Parenting in International Service Development

This paper explores theoretical and practical aspects (i.e. resources allocated, activities undertaken, actors/decisions involved) of corporate 'parenting' in the development of international service networks. A review of the relevant corporate strategy, supply-chain, networks and services management literature underpins a preliminary content (capability; market orientation) and process (top-down; bottom-up) typology of network parenting. This provides the structure for discussion of two telecommunications-sector case studies. Analysis of the data acknowledges the influence of generic network mechanisms (e.g. weak and strong social ties) but the parenting typology also highlights other mechanisms, the effectiveness of which appears contingent on specific parenting roles. The paper details these roles (labelled: governing; training; curating; facilitating) and makes some preliminary comments on the role trajectories (e.g. governing ↔ training) observed. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible directions for future work.