Inverse prediction for heteroscedastic response using mixed models software

Distributions of a response y (height, for example) differ with values of a factor t (such as age). Given a response y_* for a subject of unknown t_*, the objective of inverse prediction is to infer the value of t_* and to provide a defensible confidence set for it. Training data provide values of y observed on subjects at known values of t. Models relating the mean and variance of y to t can be formulated as mixed (fixed and random) models in terms of sets of functions of t, such as polynomial spline functions. A confidence set on t_* can then be had as those hypothetical values of t for which y_* is not detected as an outlier when compared to the model fit to the training data. With nonconstant variance, the p-values for these tests are approximate. This article describes how versatile models for this problem can be formulated in such a way that the computations can be accomplished with widely available software for mixed models, such as SAS PROC MIXED. Coverage probabilities of confidence sets on t_* are illustrated in an example.     

Sample registration in India

India's ad hoc sample registration scheme for obtaining current estimates of rural birth and death rates for the whole country is being implemented quite rapidly. Five states have 140 sample units, and eleven states will have from 20 to 100 units in the study depending upon the stage of implementation by March, 1967.Essential elements of the project for each unit are: (1) continuous registration of vital events by a paid part-time local enumerator, (2) a six-month household survey to detect births and deaths which occurred during the previous six months, and (3) matching events from registration and surveys and field recheck of unmatched events to obtain the "best" count of real number of events. Preliminary results in a non-random sample indicate that the crude birth and death rates are around 37.1 and 15.7 per 1,000, respectively, for India's rural population, but these probably will be found to be on the low side.Most of the problems of implementation are operational or administrative rather than statistical: (1) For various reasons, some states are slow in agreeing to assume financial and other responsibilities for the scheme. (2) In many states, even after the scheme has been accepted, there are delays in recruiting the staff, training, and so forth. (3) The most serious problem in the whole project is maintaining control of field operations well enough at each stage to insure that prescribed instructions and methodology are being followed.Experience in India indicates that staged implementation of such projects is highly desirable when trained staff are limited. There still are a number of methodological problems which must be tested as the sample registration evolves. Sample registration is one of the first steps in the Indian program to. develop an adequate vital statistics system. Exploratory studies to measure completeness of civil registration are being done now in an effort to develop means of using civil registration data alone for measurement of vital rates.     

Report on matching procedures of a dual record system in the southern Philippines

There are generally three stages to the development of rules for matching vital events data from two sources covering the same population: (a) establishing a set of “true” matches and nonmatches; (b) determining the best tolerance limits for each single characteristic which might be used in matching; and (c) experimenting to determine the set or sets of characteristics and the weights to be used in classifying a pair of records as matched or nonmatched. Specific examples, based on early matching experiments with data from the dual record system of the Mindanao Center for Population Studies (MCPS), are presented. Successive application of different sets of characteristics (differential valence rule) to the remaining unmatched events produced an acceptable rule for matching in this study.     

Money and Journal of Organizational Behavior Management Interventions: A Review

Practitioners and business leaders can use monetary data to quantify the financial outcomes of interventions in organizational behavior management (OBM). The primary purpose of this review was to investigate the occurrence and classification of monetary data in the OBM literature. Other purposes were to demonstrate ways in which such data contribute to the measurement of value and to provide recommendations for its reporting and publication. Accordingly, a review was conducted of publications in the Journal of Organizational Behavior Management. Cumulative yearly results showed that cost data were reported more often than cost plus benefit data, and cost plus benefit data were reported more often than benefit data alone. More cost than benefit data were reported, most often with social validity, followed by institutionalization, then maintenance measures. However, more cost plus benefit data were reported than either cost or benefit data with a maintenance measure. It is concluded that reporting cost and benefit data would be beneficial to the field of OBM.     

Why do some Irish drink so much? Family, historical and regional effects on students’ alcohol consumption and subjective normative thresholds

This paper studies determinants of drinking behavior and formation of subjective thresholds of acceptable drinking behavior using a sample of students in a major Irish University. We find evidence of strong associations between amounts of alcohol students consume and drinking of their fathers and older siblings. In contrast, we find little evidence of impacts of other non-drinking aspects of family background on students’ drinking. Parental and older sibling drinking appears to affect subjective attitudes of students towards what constitutes problem drinking behavior. We investigated historical origins of drinking behavior including the role of the Church, English cultural influences, the importance of the brewery and distilling industry, and the influence of weather. We find relatively strong influences of the Catholic Church and English colonial settlement patterns on Irish drinking patterns but little influence of Irish weather. Historical licensing restrictions on the number of pubs and off-license establishments also appear to matter.     

A psychological, attitudinal and professional profile of Irish economists

This paper provides the first psychological and attitudinal profile of the Irish economics profession. The aspects covered fall into three broad categories: the first category relates to the attitudes of the respondents to issues relating to the economy and the role of government; the second set seeks responses regarding perceptions of the economics profession and professional economists in Ireland; the third set of questions are drawn from various international survey programmes and survey social, political, ethical and psychological attributes and attitudes. The results display a picture of a group who believe their discipline to be relevant to policy and society, who are outward looking in terms of international collaboration, who perceive the discipline to be somewhat stale and who desire a greater focus on interdisciplinary work.     

Women's Voices: Explaining Poverty and Plenty in a Rural Community*

Abstract This paper explores how a multiclass sample of white rural women in an economically depressed, overwhelmingly nonfarm community explain both their own families' economic circumstances and those of the most disadvantaged families in their community. All women in the sample—even those with a history of economic instability and welfare receipt—articulate an ethic of family self‐sufficiency. They uniformly believe that anyone who can work should work, although they vary in their definition of who “can work.” In general, the lower the social class, the greater the understanding of the social processes that precipitate and perpetuate poverty. Both working‐class and poor women clearly recognize the limitations of the local market for labor. Sample women are ambivalent about welfare receipt and welfare reform. Although they believe that families should be self‐supporting, many recognize the necessity of welfare for the survival of some families in the community.     

Condoms and Contexts: Profiles of Sexual Risk and Safety Among Young Heterosexually Active Men

Heterosexual men's sexual safety behavior is important to controlling the U.S. epidemic of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). While sexual safety is often treated as a single behavior, such as condom use, it can also be conceptualized as resulting from multiple factors. Doing so can help us achieve more nuanced understandings of sexual risk and safety within partner-related contexts. We used latent class analysis with data collected online from 18- to 25-year-old heterosexually active U.S. men (n = 432) to empirically derive a typology of the patterns of sexual safety strategies they employed. Indicators were sexual risk-reduction strategies used in the past year with the most recent female sex partner: condom use, discussing sexual histories, STI testing, agreeing to be monogamous, and discussing birth control. We identified four subgroups: Risk Takers (12%), Condom Reliers (25%), Multistrategists (28%), and Relationship Reliers (35%). Partner-related context factors—number of past-year sex partners, relationship commitment, and sexual concurrency—predicted subgroup membership. Findings support tailoring STI prevention to men's sexual risk-safety subgroups. Interventions should certainly continue to encourage condom use but should also include information on how partner-related context factors and alternate sexual safety strategies can help men reduce risk for themselves and their partners.