大样本线性回归模型的子抽样及变量选择

文章考虑了大样本下线性回归中同时进行快速估计和变量选择的问题,即针对一个存在稀疏解的大样本线性模型,根据重要性抽样分布从全数据集抽取少量子样本,对该子样本进行自适应Lasso估计。通过随机模拟研究,将该算法分别应用在几种不同的数据集中,并从模型预测精度和可解释性两个方面比较了四种子抽样方法在该算法下的表现。模拟结果表明,所提出的算法具有良好表现,在计算开销上也具有一定优势。     

Precarious beauty: migrant Chinese women,beauty work,and precarity

This study focuses on precarious labor, in particular, the experiences of a group of internal migrant women working in a beauty shop in South China. The study aim is to elucidate the ways in which migrant Chinese women negotiate the demands of work and life that help to shape the imaginations and aspirations of modern city dwellers. Women factory workers, it is argued, leave other employment for work in the aspiring Chinese beauty industry, which promises significant facets of modern identity such as urban status, cosmopolitanism, and upward mobility. Their work, nevertheless, remains fundamentally precarious because of not only low wages and limited job security but also the construction and circulation of femininity and assumptions about gender normality in both work and family. The precarious work also indexes the ambivalent relationship between the national affect of hope and the fragility of individual potentiality under neoliberal ethos.     

互联网产业发展影响因素的实证分析

21世纪互联网产业迅猛发展有其自身的规律和特点。本文基于2003-2011年的29个省市的面板数据对互联网产业增加值构建扩展的内生经济增长模型,以涵盖整个互联网产业上中下游产业链的新视角实证分析了影响中国互联网产业的诸因素。结果表明:经济发展水平、文化教育水平、经济对外开放程度、科技发展度、互联网产业人力资源规模和基础设施是影响中国互联网产业发展的主要因素,而且中国互联网产业的发展水平具有明显的地区差异性,即中国的互联网产业在东部沿海经济较发达的地区发展得较好,而在中西部经济欠发达的地区则发展欠佳。     

多目标灰色局势决策方法在环境教育定量考核评价中的应用

对环境教育进行定量考核评价，是使其管理走向系统化、正规化和科学化的必由之路，本文以不同地区环境教育的综合定量考核评价为例，说明多目标灰色局势决策方法在环境教育管理定量考核评价中的应用。该方法不涉及繁杂的数学推理和演算，既简单易行又准确可靠，具有较强的可操作性。     

Avian Influenza Risk Perception and Live Poultry Purchase in Guangzhou, China, 2006

Human H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection is associated with intimate exposure to live poultry. Perceptions of risk can modify behaviors, influencing actual exposure. However, greater hazard is not necessarily followed by perception of greater risk and more precautionary behavior because self-serving cognitive biases modulate precautionary and hazardous behaviors. We examined risk perception associated with avian influenza. A total of 1,550 face-to-face within-household interviews and 1,760 telephone interviews were derived to study avian influenza risk perception and live poultry use in Guangzhou and Hong Kong, respectively. Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests assessed bivariate associations and risk distributions, respectively, and fully adjusted multivariate logistic models determined independent risk associations. Relative to Hong Kong, perceived "generalized" risk from buying live poultry (GZ, 58%, 95% confidence interval 55–60% vs. HK, 41%, 39–43%; χ²= 86.95, df  = 1, p < 0.001) and perceived self/family risk from buying ( z  =−2.092, p  = 0.036) were higher in Guangzhou. Higher perceived "generalized" risk was associated with not buying live poultry (OR = 0.65, 0.49–0.85), consistent with the pattern seen in Hong Kong, while perceived higher self/family risk was associated with buying ("likely/very likely/certain" OR = 1.74, 1.18–2.59); no such association was seen in Hong Kong. Multivariate adjustment indicated older age was associated with buying live poultry in Guangzhou (OR = 2.91, 1.36–6.25). Guangzhou respondents perceived greater risk relative to Hong Kong. Buying live poultry was associated with perceptions of less "generalized" risk but more self/family risk. Higher generalized risk was associated with fewer live poultry purchases, suggesting generalized risk may be a useful indicator of precautionary HPAI risk behavior.     

“后殖民”的殖民——对后殖民翻译理论适用性的思考

发轫于西方政治与文化环境的后殖民主义翻译理论近年受到国内译学界的广泛关注。通过分析后殖民翻译理论在我国应用中存在的问题，提出对后殖民翻译理论应该采取的态度。     

Risk‐Based Probabilistic Approach to Assess the Impact of False Mussel Invasions on Farmed Hard Clams

The purpose of this article is to provide a risk‐based predictive model to assess the impact of false mussel Mytilopsis sallei invasions on hard clam Meretrix lusoria farms in the southwestern region of Taiwan. The actual spread of invasive false mussel was predicted by using analytical models based on advection‐diffusion and gravity models. The proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation by false mussel were used to characterize risk estimates. A mortality model was parameterized to assess hard clam mortality risk characterized by false mussel density and infestation intensity. The published data were reanalyzed to parameterize a predictive threshold model described by a cumulative Weibull distribution function that can be used to estimate the exceeding thresholds of proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation. Results indicated that the infestation thresholds were 2–17 ind clam^?1 for adult hard clams, whereas 4 ind clam^?1 for nursery hard clams. The average colonization thresholds were estimated to be 81–89% for cultivated and nursery hard clam farms, respectively. Our results indicated that false mussel density and infestation, which caused 50% hard clam mortality, were estimated to be 2,812 ind m^?2 and 31 ind clam^?1, respectively. This study further indicated that hard clam farms that are close to the coastal area have at least 50% probability for 43% mortality caused by infestation. This study highlighted that a probabilistic risk‐based framework characterized by probability distributions and risk curves is an effective representation of scientific assessments for farmed hard clam in response to the nonnative false mussel invasion.     

郑樵《通志·乐略》与孔子《诗经》

郑樵《通志·乐略》中所体现的会通思想和编次思想在很大程度上是对孔子音乐思想的继承与发扬;在《乐略》中郑樵对《诗经》之乐重新进行了诠释。     

网络时代公众参与改革决策评估指标体系构建

网络时代改革决策绩效及其公众参与效能评估指标体系的合理化、科学化,在很大程度上影响着评估的水平与质量。为了使网络时代的改革决策绩效评估工作具有可操作性,本文从当代中国政治体制改革与网络民主发展、公众参与改革决策的趋势出发,对网络时代的改革决策绩效评估指标体系与中国公众参与改革决策效能评价指标体系的框架与指标进行了初步的探讨,设计了一套网络时代公众参与改革决策的评估指标体系,旨在推进我国网络民主的健康发展与和谐社会建设。     

价值观的代际分化及其本质

代际冲突是社会转型的结果之一,也是社会转型的一个重要特征。代际冲突的重要原因就是价值观的代际分化,或者说“代沟”。然而,对价值观的代际分化或代沟,存在着“不可避免论”和“主观虚构论”两种倾向。对究竟是否存在价值观的代际分化,应该作辩证的分析。价值观的代际分化或代沟,其本质是价值观的代际断裂,这已被一系列的实证调查所印证。