对当前中国启动内需的思考

当前国内经济下行与产能过剩,根源在于内需不足与出口主导型战略下西方负债型消费模式,导致中国产业规模过度扩张与产业结构失衡.启动内需是大国经济增长和稳定的基石,应该作为国家长期战略来贯彻执行.启动内需不是由政府代替消费者来花钱,而是重在构建经济持续健康发展的体制环境.中国应进行产权制度的改革创新,降低税收并减少由政府主导的投资;建立健全社会保障体系,稳定物价水平;创新金融体制,完善市场机制,营造有利于创业就业的体制环境;大力发展农村经济,提高农民收入;扶持中小企业的发展;大力发展服务业,促进消费转型.     

刑罚轻缓化的实践范式及其价值蕴涵

刑罚轻缓化是指在刑事立法上建立轻刑化的刑罚体系,刑事司法上尽量适用轻刑和非刑罚处理方法的刑罚改革趋势.作为世界性刑法改革运动的一大主题,刑罚轻缓化主要体现为非犯罪化、非刑罚化、非监禁化三种实践范式.推行刑罚轻缓化,有利于实现刑法的人权保障机能和彰显刑法的谦抑性价值,有利于节约司法资源,同时还有利于提高犯罪人的改造质量.     

A Warning Zone Method for the Multiperiod Cost Variance Investigation Problem

This paper develops a warning zone approach to make variance investigation decisions for a multiperiod process. The assumed cost generation process varies between an in-control and out-of-control state. These states cannot be directly observed, but must be inferred from the reported cost variances. Using the warning zone method of inference, the manager investigates the process whenever an upper threshold is exceeded or a lower threshold is exceeded for two consecutive periods. A four-state Markov chain models the resulting decision process. Steady state probabilities are derived for this chain and are used to obtain explicit formulas for the effectiveness and efficiency of the decision process. These formulas permit computation of the cost savings attainable by the warning zone method. Compared to other decision rules, the warning zone method is much simpler than the theoretically optimal Bayesian revision method, but uses more information than the Markovian control limit method. Numerical comparison of results shows that the warning zone method usually captures most of the available cost savings, even in cases where the Markovian control limit method does not perform well.     

Abused Women in Taiwan Who Seek Religious Support

ABSTRACT

This research explores the types of religious healing that abused women use and surveys their experiences with these practices in Taiwan. Fifteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of abused women, who had been recruited from 12 agencies. The findings show that participants sought religious healing for a variety of reasons, and that they had both positive experiences (e.g., useful religious support) and negative experiences (e.g., encountering deceptive jitongs and spending a large amount of money on services) regardingr the support provided by different religions. This study also found that women who believed in traditional Eastern religions had more negative experiences than women who believed in Western religions.     

Pricing power options with a generalized jump diffusion

In this article, the valuation of power option is investigated when the dynamic of the stock price is governed by a generalized jump-diffusion Markov-modulated model. The systematic risk is characterized by the diffusion part, and the non systematic risk is characterized by the pure jump process. The jumps are described by a generalized renewal process with generalized jump amplitude. By introducing NASDAQ Index Model, their risk premium is identified respectively. A risk-neutral measure is identified by employing Esscher transform with two families of parameters, which represent the two parts risk premium. In this article, the non systematic risk premium is considered, based on which the price of power option is studied under the generalized jump-diffusion Markov-modulated model. In the case of a special renewal process with log double exponential jump amplitude, the accurate expressions for the Esscher parameters and the pricing formula are provided. By numerical simulation, the influence of the non systematic risk’s price and the index of the power options on the price of the option is depicted.     

A study of quadratic inference functions with alternative weighting matrices

Quadratic inference function (QIF) is an alternative methodology to the popular generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach, it does not involve direct estimation of the correlation parameter, and thus remains optimal even if the working correlation structure is misspecified. The idea is to represent the inverse of the working correlation matrix by a linear combination of some basis matrices. In this article, we present a modification of QIF with a robust variance estimator of the extended score function. Theoretical and numerical results show that the modified QIF attains better efficiency and achieves better small sample performance than the original QIF method.     

微信朋友圈：“互联网+”场域中的身份建构与文化表达

微信朋友圈是近年国内兴起的一种社会文化现象.微信中的朋友圈与现实社会中的朋友圈有共性,但差异更为明显."熟悉"的"陌生人"和"陌生"的"熟人"是微信朋友圈人际关系的两种主要状态.基于互联网等现代通讯媒介,"朋友"在微信场域中具有多重身份认同和身份建构.通过多样化的象征符号及其表达,微信朋友圈的即时互动和超地域性使其具备了现实朋友圈难以企及的社会资本动员能力和文化张力.微信红包、微信点赞、微言众听、微群讨论甚至微商广告等等,构成了"互联网+"时代微信朋友圈的基本业态和常态.微信朋友圈的出现和流行,在某种程度上看是文化与技术融合的现代性产物.作为文化与技术融合的当代社会交往媒介和载体,微信朋友圈已开始出现了一些后现代社会生活的端倪.     

城中村农民社会研究的人类学维度与限度

从人类学的角度来看,城中村的农民、农业、农村社会变迁和包括少数民族在内的大量外来务工人员的文化移植或嵌入,共同构筑了城中村农民社会的文化多样性.人类学独特的理论视角和方法技术,可避免其他学科可能出现的“文化解释”谬误.文章分析了社会情境影响下的中国人类学发展状况和人类学参与城中村农民社会研究的学科优势,从都市人类学、工商人类学、经济人类学、教育人类学、医学人类学、宗教人类学、历史人类学、旅游人类学等8个分支学科讨论了人类学的研究维度,也讨论了人类学参与研究中存在超域性、局部性和相对性限度,揭示了人类学参与城中村农民社会研究的重要意义.