Ethnicity, migration and health: A population-based study of 338 refugees from Latin America, 396 nonrefugee immigrants from Finland and 161 from southern Europe and 996 age-, sex- and education-matched controls from Sweden

This article shows the influence of being a refugee from Latin America or a nonrefugee immigrant from southern Europe or Finland on self-reported illness, controlling for social factors and lifestyle. The study population consisted of 338 Latin American refugees, a random sample of 396 Finnish and 161 southern European immigrants and 996 age-, sex- and education-matched Swedish controls. The data were analysed unmatched with logistic regression (multivariate analysis) in main effect models. The strongest independent risk indicator for long-term illness was being a Latin American refugee (estimated odds ratio (OR)=2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI)=2.19–3.82). There was a significant association between being a Latin American refugee and period prevalence, ill health and unsatisfied need for care. Being a southern European or Finnish immigrant was a risk indicator of ill health but was not associated with the other dependent factors. Not feeling secure in daily life was a strong risk indicator for long-term illness and ill health (estimated OR=1.89, 95% CI=1.26–2.76 and OR=3.04, 95% CI= 1.97–4.48) respectively). Being a Latin American refugee was equal in importance to traditional risk factors such as overweight and not taking regular exercise for long-term illness and ill health.     

Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: current approaches

Summary.  Alongside the development of meta-analysis as a tool for summarizing research literature, there is renewed interest in broader forms of quantitative synthesis that are aimed at combining evidence from different study designs or evidence on multiple parameters. These have been proposed under various headings: the confidence profile method, cross-design synthesis, hierarchical models and generalized evidence synthesis. Models that are used in health technology assessment are also referred to as representing a synthesis of evidence in a mathematical structure. Here we review alternative approaches to statistical evidence synthesis, and their implications for epidemiology and medical decision-making. The methods include hierarchical models, models informed by evidence on different functions of several parameters and models incorporating both of these features. The need to check for consistency of evidence when using these powerful methods is emphasized. We develop a rationale for evidence synthesis that is based on Bayesian decision modelling and expected value of information theory, which stresses not only the need for a lack of bias in estimates of treatment effects but also a lack of bias in assessments of uncertainty. The increasing reliance of governmental bodies like the UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence on complex evidence synthesis in decision modelling is discussed.     

华北村落的人类学研究方法

在探讨中国社会组织原则时 ,将华南的宗族研究范式与华北的满铁研究传统结合起来 ,可以形成一条行之有效的学术实践路线 ,这就是追踪调查再研究模式。它所具有的学术魅力在于 :(1)方法论上 ,确立了一种将不同研究传统结合起来的研究取向 ,即追踪调查再研究模式 ;(2 )与国际汉学人类学界接轨 ;(3)考察村落社会文化变迁的原委 ,洞悉社会转型期的实质 ,对处于传统与现代之间的华北村落社会提供一场人类学个案解说     

美国经济人类学发展的历史轨迹

美国经济人类学是诞生在 2 0世纪四五十年代的一门新兴边缘学科。本文主要研究和阐述了其学科发展的历史过程 ,并根据划分学派的“四个基本一致”原则与该学科向广义发展的最新趋势 ,对形形色色的美国经济人类学流派作了全新的划分与论述     

湖南省与周边区域经济发展比较及对策研究

近年来 ,国家实施“西部大开发”战略对湖南省的地缘经济关系的影响十分显著 :与湖南经济关系互补型的地区减少了 ,而竞争型的地区有所增多。因此 ,湖南省必须抓住改革开放机遇 ,充分认识自身优势和弱点 ,把握在全国经济格局中的角色定位 ,加大对外开放的力度 ,多方招商引资 ,使本地区经济在全国经济竞争中迅速发展     

简说李觏

李觏一生从事教育工作，尤其注重平民教育。他想要改革北宋的朝政，因为他未得机会进入仕途，所以无法实行自己的改革主张。胡适说李觏是王安石思想先驱，理由不充分。说曾巩是李觏的学生也无史料依据。关于李觏对孟子的非议，却反映了李觏对孟子的特殊看法。     

Computing maximum likelihood estimates from type II doubly censored exponential data

It is well-known that, under Type II double censoring, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the location and scale parameters, θ and δ, of a twoparameter exponential distribution are linear functions of the order statistics. In contrast, when θ is known, theML estimator of δ does not admit a closed form expression. It is shown, however, that theML estimator of the scale parameter exists and is unique. Moreover, it has good large-sample properties. In addition, sharp lower and upper bounds for this estimator are provided, which can serve as starting points for iterative interpolation methods such as regula falsi. Explicit expressions for the expected Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound are also derived. In the Bayesian context, assuming an inverted gamma prior on δ, the uniqueness, boundedness and asymptotics of the highest posterior density estimator of δ can be deduced in a similar way. Finally, an illustrative example is included.     

论企业管理基础工作的创新

企业管理基础工作是企业管理效益的基石,是管理实现科学化和现代化的首要条件,而管理基础工作的创新是管理创新的前提条件。     

Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery

Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.     

公路桥头跳车成因分析及技术措施

桥头跳车一直是道路桥梁工程界广为关注而又一直尚未解决的重大技术难题，本文针对桥头跳车问题进行了成因分析，介绍了其危害性及可行的几种防治措施，为进一步解决这一问题提供一些可实施的方法。