Are Some Risk Comparisons More Effective Under Conflict?: A Replication and Extension of Roth et al.

Despite many claims for and against the use of risk comparisons in risk communication, few empirical studies have explored their effect. Only one study, published by Roth et al. in this journal in 1990, has tested the 1988 predictions by Covello et al. as to the public's relative preferences for 14 kinds of risk comparisons as they might be used by a factory manager to explain risks of his ethylene oxide plant. That study found no correlations between the Covello predictions and seven different measures of "acceptability" of Covello's examples of each type of comparison. However, two critics of the Roth study, as well as its own authors, suggested that a scenario involving local risks, a conflict-ridden situation, and a plant manager unknown to the townspeople might better evoke Covello-like preferences than the distant, calm, friends-involving scenario used by Roth. The research reported here replicated the Roth study using the same scenario, risk comparison examples, and evaluation measures, and added a second scenario intended to replicate the conditions suggested by critics. Over 200 New Jersey residents answered the study questionnaire. The replication scenario reproduced Roth's results, and the conflict scenario also evoked no rankings correlated with Covello's predictions. Furthermore, neither agreement nor disagreement with five statements representing "conflict"--respondents' reports that the industrial-plant scenario made them angry, they lived near industry, they were concerned about industrial risks, people in their home town were angry about industrial pollution, and they worried "frequently" about long-term effects of pollution--correlated with Covello's predictions. Over half of all ratings ascribed to the comparisons in aggregate were positive, and most detailed comments offered by respondents also were positive, despite many criticisms and suggestions for their improvement. The wide variability in individuals' rankings also undermines the notion of any single ranking of preferred comparisons. These findings have implications for use of risk comparisons, but also reveal the inaccuracy of the field's assumptions about public reaction to industrial risk information, including risk comparison.     

Do Reports on Drinking Water Quality Affect Customers' Concerns? Experiments in Report Content

The Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1996 required U.S. utilities to report on drinking water quality to their customers annually, beginning in fall 1999, on the assumption that such reports would alert them to quality problems and perhaps mobilize pressure for improvement. A random sample of New Jersey customers read alternative versions of a water quality report, in an experiment on reactions to water quality information under U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) rules. Experiment design was 2 x 3 + 1: two versions each--one with, one without, a violation of a health standard--of a report that was (1) Qualitative (without water quality numbers, thus not meeting USEPA rules); (2) Basic, with minimal information meeting the rules; or (3) Extended, adding reading aids and utility performance information; plus a control instrument without any hypothetical report. Results of ANOVA suggest the reports will have less effect than hoped or feared. These manipulations were successful: people reading the Qualitative versions were less likely to say that the report gave the amounts of substances found in the water, and those reading Violation versions were more likely to report a violation of a health standard. The main differences in responses to the report involved the judged adequacy of the information, and to a lesser extent responses on a Concern scale (constructed from measures of concern, judged risk, clean-up intentions, distrust of utility information, and doubt that the utility was doing all it could to improve water quality). Overall judgments of water quality and utility performance did not change, either relative to the controls or in before versus after responses. Qualitative reports performed worse than others, confirming the decision to have utilities report actual contaminant levels. Extended reports did only slightly better than the Basic versions on these measures. Many respondents had trouble identifying the presence or absence of substance amounts or violations, despite their seeming obviousness (e.g., in a "bottom line" summary on the front page of each report), suggesting many were not processing this information carefully. However, the pattern of responses for those who accurately identified the presence or absence of substance amounts or violations did not differ substantially from that for the group as a whole. Generic risk beliefs (serious local environmental problems; lack of control over risks to one's health) dominated demographic variables, attitudes toward utility water quality or trustworthiness, and the content and format of water quality reports in influencing concern about drinking water quality. Previous empirical and theoretical evidence for lack of change in public risk attitudes due to one-time or infrequent communications--e.g., role of personal experience, perseverance of prior trust or distrust--seems to be confirmed for annual water quality reports.     

Communicating Worst-Case Scenarios: Neighbors'' Views of Industrial Accident Management

The prospect of industrial accidents motivated the U.S. Congress to require in the Clean Air Act of 1990 that manufacturing facilities develop Risk Management Plans (RMP) to submit to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) by July 1999. Industry worried that the requirement to communicate to the public a "worst-case scenario" would arouse unnecessary and counterproductive fears among industry neighbors. We report here the results of focus groups and surveys with such neighbors, focusing particularly upon their reactions to messages about a hypothetical worst-case scenario and management of these risks by industry, government, and other parties. Our findings confirmed our hypotheses that citizens would be skeptical of the competence and trustworthiness of these managers and that this stance would color their views of industrial-facility accident risks. People with job ties to industry or who saw industrial benefits to the community as exceeding its risks had more positive views of industrial risks, but still expressed great concern about the risk and doubt about accident management. Notwithstanding these reactions, overall respondents welcomed this and other related information, which they wanted their local industries to supply. Respondents were not more reassured by additional text describing management of accidents by government and industry. However, respondents did react very positively to the concept of community oversight to review plant safety. Claims about the firm's moral obligation or financial self-interest in preventing accidents were also received positively. Further research on innovative communication and management of accident risks is warranted by these results, even before recent terrorist attacks made this topic more salient.     

Fast On-Line/Off-Line Algorithms for Optimal Reinforcement of a Network and its Connections with Principal Partition

The problem of computing the strength and performing optimal reinforcement for an edge-weighted graph G(V, E, w) is well-studied. In this paper, we present fast (sequential linear time and parallel logarithmic time) on-line algorithms for optimally reinforcing the graph when the reinforcement material is available continuously on-line. These are the first on-line algorithms for this problem. We invest O(|V|³|E|log|V|) time (equivalent to (|V|) invocations of the fastest known algorithms for optimal reinforcement) in preprocessing the graph before the start of our algorithms. It is shown that the output of our on-line algorithms is as good as that of the off-line algorithms. Thus our algorithms are better than the fastest off-line algorithms in situations when a sequence of more than (|V|) reinforcement problems need to be solved. The key idea is to make use of ideas underlying the theory of Principal Partition of a Graph. Our ideas are easily generalized to the general setting of polymatroid functions. We also present a new efficient algorithm for computation of the Principal Sequence of a graph.     

An evaluation of population projections by age

A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in Florida. We also compared the accuracy of state and county projections that were derived from full-blown applications of the cohort-component method with the accuracy of projections that were derived from a simpler, less data-intensive version of the method. We found that age-group error patterns are different for national projections than for subnational projections; that errors are substantially larger for some age groups than for others; that differences in errors among age groups decline as the projection horizon becomes longer; and that differences in methodological complexity have no consistent impact on the precision and bias of age-group projections.     

Evidence-based practice in community-based child welfare systems

The immaturity of the evidence base in some areas of child welfare practice demands that practitioners approach the development and refinement of practice in a systematic way that explicitly seeks to build on and learn from experience. The efforts of public child welfare agencies in Boston and Cleveland show that it is possible to draw on a broader base of knowledge and experience while responding to unique conditions and circumstances in each agency's community.     

How parental drug use and drug treatment compliance relate to family reunification

This study uses Cox regression to assess the relationships among parental drug use, drug treatment compliance, and reunification from substitute care. The study finds that drug treatment compliance is associated with faster reunification, even when accounting for ongoing drug use and three parenting measures. The findings are consistent with a conceptual framework suggesting that certain client actions, such as drug treatment compliance, may serve as markers that substantially affect client outcomes.     

Sex and Gender in the 1970s

The late 1960s through the early 1970s was a time of profound social change both in American society and in sociology. Sociological attention shifted from social pathology to deviant subcultures and to labeling processes, shifting again by the 1990s to the study of social control. Many ethnographic studies of homosexuality were undertaken in the 1960s and 1970s in the tradition of labeling and stigma, including Laud Humphreys' Tearoom Trade (1970) and my Identity and Community in the Gay World (Warren 1974). Male ethnographers in particular were often stigmatized along with the deviants they studied, while the women (including me) were sometimes discouraged from doing graduate-level sociology at all. Thirty years later, the terrains of gender, sexuality and stigma have changed, yet pockets of pro-stigma resistance remain. Even in the 2000s, the stigma of homosexuality has not entirely disappeared. And, above all, the essentializing categories of homosexual, bisexual and heterosexual remain firmly entrenched in public discourse, sociological analysis, homophobia and gay activism.