VARIATIONAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS

The variational approach to Bayesian inference enables simultaneous estimation of model parameters and model complexity. An interesting feature of this approach is that it also leads to an automatic choice of model complexity. Empirical results from the analysis of hidden Markov models with Gaussian observation densities illustrate this. If the variational algorithm is initialized with a large number of hidden states, redundant states are eliminated as the method converges to a solution, thereby leading to a selection of the number of hidden states. In addition, through the use of a variational approximation, the deviance information criterion for Bayesian model selection can be extended to the hidden Markov model framework. Calculation of the deviance information criterion provides a further tool for model selection, which can be used in conjunction with the variational approach.     

On the stability of the risk hull method for projection estimators

We consider in this paper the regularization by projection of a linear inverse problem Y=Af+εξ$Y=\mathit{Af}+\epsilon \xi$ where ξ$\xi$ denotes a Gaussian white noise, A   a compact operator and ε>0$\epsilon >0$ a noise level. Compared to the standard unbiased risk estimation (URE) method, the risk hull minimization (RHM) procedure presents a very interesting numerical behavior. However, the regularization in the singular value decomposition setting requires the knowledge of the eigenvalues of A$A$. Here, we deal with noisy eigenvalues: only observations on this sequence are available. We study the efficiency of the RHM method in this situation. More generally, we shed light on some properties usually related to the regularization with a noisy operator.     

Asymptotic distributions for the intervals estimators of the extremal index and the cluster-size probabilities

Under appropriate long range dependence conditions, the point process of exceedances of a stationary sequence weakly converges to a homogeneous compound Poisson point process. This limiting point process can be characterized by the extremal index and the cluster-size probabilities. In this paper we address the problem of estimating these quantities and we consider the intervals estimators introduced in Ferro and Segers [2003. Inference for clusters of extreme values. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 545–556] and in Ferro [2004. Statistical methods for clusters of extreme values. Ph.D. Thesis, Lancaster University]. We establish asymptotic weak convergence to Gaussian random variables and we give their asymptotic variance.     

Semiparametric estimation for count data through weighted distributions

This paper is concerned with semiparametric discrete kernel estimators when the unknown count distribution can be considered to have a general weighted Poisson form. The estimator is constructed by multiplying the Poisson estimate with a nonparametric discrete kernel-type estimate of the Poisson weight function. Comparisons are then carried out with the ordinary discrete kernel probability mass function estimators. The Poisson weight function is thus a local multiplicative correction factor, and is considered as the uniform measure to detect departures from the equidispersed Poisson distribution. In this way, the effects of dispersion and zero-proportion with respect to the standard Poisson distribution are also minimized. This method of estimation is also applied to the weighted binomial form for the count distribution having a finite support. The proposed estimators, in addition to being simple, easy-to-implement and effective, also outperform the competing nonparametric and parametric estimators in finite-sample situations. Two examples illustrate this new semiparametric estimation.     

Flexible univariate and multivariate models based on hidden truncation

A broad spectrum of flexible univariate and multivariate models can be constructed by using a hidden truncation paradigm. Such models can be viewed as being characterized by a basic marginal density, a family of conditional densities and a specified hidden truncation point, or points. The resulting class of distributions includes the basic marginal density as a special case (or as a limiting case), but also includes an array of models that may unexpectedly include many well known densities. Most of the well known skew-normal models (developed from the seed distribution popularized by Azzalini [(1985). A class of distributions which includes the normal ones. Scand. J. Statist. 12(2), 171–178]) can be viewed as being products of such a hidden truncation construction. However, the many hidden truncation models with non-normal component densities undoubtedly deserve further attention.     

The Italian Labour Force Survey to estimate fertility

The own-children method (OCM) applied to the Italian Labour Force Survey (ILFS) is an alternative way to give information on fertility for the years before the survey. By deriving children information and the population at risk on the basis of parents’ characteristics, a large-scale dataset for fertility analysis in Italy becomes available, also to reconstruct event histories. The quality assessment provided by comparing the total fertility rate (TFR) calculated on ILFS with the official regional and national TFRs by ISTAT gives us usable outcomes.     

Protection of privacy in efficient application of randomized response techniques

In estimating the proportion of people bearing a sensitive attribute A, say, in a given community, following Warner’s (J Am Stat Assoc 60:63–69, 1965) pioneering work, certain randomized response (RR) techniques are available for application. These are intended to ensure efficient and unbiased estimation protecting a respondent’s privacy when it touches a person’s socially stigmatizing feature like rash driving, tax evasion, induced abortion, testing HIV positive, etc. Lanke (Int Stat Rev 44:197–203, 1976), Leysieffer and Warner (J Am Stat Assoc 71:649–656, 1976), Anderson (Int Stat Rev 44:213–217, 1976, Scand J Stat 4:11–19, 1977) and Nayak (Commun Stat Theor Method 23:3303–3321, 1994) among others have discussed how maintenance of efficiency is in conflict with protection of privacy. In their RR-related activities the sample selection is traditionally by simple random sampling (SRS) with replacement (WR). In this paper, an extension of an essential similarity in case of general unequal probability sample selection even without replacement is reported. Large scale surveys overwhelmingly employ complex designs other than SRSWR. So extension of RR techniques to complex designs is essential and hence this paper principally refers to them. New jeopardy measures to protect revelation of secrecy presented here are needed as modifications of those in the literature covering SRSWR alone. Observing that multiple responses are feasible in addressing such a dichotomous situation especially with Kuk’s (Biometrika 77:436–438, 1990) and Christofides’ (Metrika 57:195–200, 2003) RR devices, an average of the response-specific jeopardizing measures is proposed. This measure which is device dependent, could be regarded as a technical characteristic of the device and it should be made known to the participants before they agree to use the randomization device. The views expressed are the authors’, not of the organizations they work for. Prof Chaudhuri’s research is partially supported by CSIR Grant No. 21(0539)/02/EMR-II.     

The multivariate alpha-power model

The main object of this paper is to propose a multivariate extension to the alpha-power model which is an alternative to the multivariate skew-normal model (Arellano-Valle and Azzalini, 2008). It also extends the power-normal model discussed in Gupta and Gupta (2008) by making it more flexible. Inference is dealt with by using the likelihood approach and a pseudo-likelihood approach based on conditional distributions which, although slightly less efficient, is simpler to implement. An application to a real data set is used to demonstrate the usefulness of the extension.