Nonparametric estimation of waiting time distributions in a Markov model based on current status data

We construct nonparametric estimators of state waiting time distribution functions in a Markov multistate model using current status data. This is a particularly difficult problem since neither the entry nor the exit times of a given state are directly observed. These estimators are obtained, using the Markov property, from estimators of counting processes of state entry and exit times, as well as, the size of “at risk” sets of state entry and transitions out of that state. Consistency of our estimators is established. Finite-sample behavior of our estimators is studied by simulation, in which we show that our estimators based on current status data compare well with those based on complete data. We also illustrate our method using a pubertal development data set obtained from the NHANES III [1997. NHANES III Reference Manuals and Reports (CD-ROM). Analytic and Reporting Guidelines: The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–94). National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD] study.     

基于战略视角的教学研究型大学绩效评估体系研究

本文分析了非营利组织绩效评估的概念与方法,总结了国内外学校绩效评估的理论与实践.在此基础上,从大学的使命和战略出发,提出了教学研究型大学的绩效评估模型,指出绩效评估应从学校的政府与社会满意度、师生满意度、内部流程绩效和战略绩效四个方面展开,且四个方面之间存在着内在的联系,最后提出了具有可操作性的绩效评估指标和内容.这将为中国高等教育管理与教学改革提供一种全新的思路和方法.     

Family Relationships,Social Connections,and Depressive Symptoms Among Chinese Older Adults in International Migrant Families

This study explored whether and how family relationships and social connections influence depressive symptoms of older migrants and older adults in transnational families using the data gathered from a cross-sectional survey in Los Angeles, California, United States, and Beijing, China. Regression results showed that the older migrants reported significantly higher levels of depression than the elders in transnational families. The findings highlight the importance of maintaining close family relations and having large friendship networks for older adults in international migrant families.     

A balancing act in urban social-ecology: human appreciation,ponds and dragonflies

Green spaces in cities provide cultural ecosystems services (CES) such as nature connection, wildlife interaction and aesthetic appreciation which can improve aspects of human well-being. Recognising these benefits, researchers are now examining the complex relationship between humans and nature in urban social-ecology. Most studies investigate people’s appreciation and valuation of different green space features and their contribution to urban biodiversity. Recommendations arising from such studies are best practices to achieve a balance between landscape aesthetic and ecological objectives, but many knowledge gaps still exist. In a social-ecological project in Greater London, appreciation of ponds and dragonflies in urban green spaces, and the environmental factors determining dragonfly diversity were investigated. We found ponds and their appearance were valued by people as enhancing their green space experience. The preference for wild-looking ponds was moderate. Dragonflies were enjoyed for their colour and high visibility, especially by those who had basic dragonfly knowledge. Species richness of dragonflies was positively associated with habitat heterogeneity in and around a pond. However, people were unable to relate a heterogeneous pond to more dragonfly species. For the first time, some factors that influence the human appreciation-ponds-dragonflies (HPD) relationship in an urban context are revealed. To fully realise the CES potential of ponds and dragonflies in Greater London, a HPD framework is proposed. The framework underpins strategies that foster cultural sustainability for ponds and dragonfly conservation.     

Perceived Need for Home- and Community-Based Services: Experiences of Urban Chinese Older Adults With Functional Impairments

Guided by Cantor’s social care model, this study identified individual, family, and social support factors that influence urban older adults’ need for home- and community-based services, including medical and rehabilitation, instrumental care and support, and psychosocial services. The data were extracted from the Sample Survey on Aged Population in Urban/Rural China conducted by the China Research Center on Aging in 2006. Results from multiple logistic regression show that older adults’ need for medical and rehabilitation services is significantly related to instrumental activities of daily living, depression, not having filial children, friend support networks, and having a confidant. Older adults’ need for instrumental care and support is related to their educational attainment, financial strain, instrumental activities of daily living, not living with children, and friend support networks. Finally, older adults’ need for psychosocial services is significantly related to educational attainment, depression, not being married, friend support networks, and having a confidant. Implications for social service development are discussed.     

消费伦理与现代消费主义文化精神

消费主义是消费社会的核心价值观。批判消费主义是当前消费伦理学的前沿性课题,追问消费主义的伦理基础是文化批判理论不可或缺的重要内容。自消费革命以来,西方消费伦理思想大致经历了两次变革:一是消费的去道德化;二是消费的伦理价值重构。两次变革一方面以过度消费取代了满足基本生存需要的自然消费;另一方面,还以奢侈消费为善的道德判断颠覆了节俭消费的美德传统。解读西方消费主义文化与消费伦理之间的关系,对于我们认清当前消费生活颠倒性的实质内涵具有重要启示意义。     

对文化创意产业标准化战略的思考

标准具有技术与制度双重属性.文化创意产业要做到“文化和科技融合,发展新型业态、实现创意产业的规模化、集约化、专业化”,政府和企业必须重视文化创意产业的标准化战略,构建我国文化创意产业分类和统计标准、文化创意企业和聚集区分类标准、文化产品和服务的技术标准等三大类标准.文化创意产业的标准化作为一种超越产品、专利、品牌竞争的高层次竞争手段,在其产业发展中的作用越来越重要.专利和品牌是对一种产品的垄断,标准是对一个行业的垄断,得标准者得天下.     

我国鲜活农产品运输的VC-BP神经网络组合模型

鲜活农产品因其易腐烂、难保存的特点导致运输过程中损耗严重,成本重复,因此对运输有较高要求。通过层次分析法确定农产品运输通道评价指标权重,将变尺度混沌优化与BP人工神经网络有机结合,可构建变尺度混沌-BP神经网络组合优化模型。该模型通过变尺度混沌优化方法对网络权值分布进行优化,采用梯度下降法最终搜索确定全局最优权值。该模型可实现对农产品运输通道模式的评价和选择,避免了各种运输方式成本的重复利用,可快速有效提高农产品运输的运输质量。该模型可做到全局优化,避免了以往算法局部最优化的缺陷。通过实例仿真,该模型具有较好的应用性和动态适应性。     

关于设立大学生创新基金的思考

大学生创新基金的设立,是培养学生的创新意识和科研实践能力的一种新思路。大学生创新基金在培养创新性人才中起着构建平台、提供动力、营造空间、奠定基础的重要作用。建议各高校采取鼓励大学生共同参与、独立申报,制定本科导师制,自选课题、自主设计实验方案,组织学生参加创新大赛,拓宽创新渠道等具体措施,以推动创新基金的健康发展。