苗族的"蒙毕"和"蒙朵"——兼论文化人类学视野下的族群关系

以我国西部散杂区苗族内部两个族群的互动关系为视角,从文化变迁角度进行田野观察,可以得出这样的结论:即族群是在民族其下可再细分的文化变量;族群研究有学院派与田野派之分,二派之间通过采取不同的研究思路,意在更清晰地解读国内人类学学术研究范式的发展趋势。     

权力视角下的民族分层——以当代以色列为例

国际政治现实主义理论大师汉斯·摩根索指出:"由于人口多少是国家权力强弱的一个因素,由于一个国家的权力总是与他国的权力相关,争夺权力的各国之间的相对人口、尤其是人口增长的相对速度,便值得认真对待了."摩根索除了强调人口数量对一个国家权力的影响之外,还指出人口质量(民族性格、民族士气等)也是影响一个国家权力的重要因素.     

As low birth weight babies grow,can well-educated parents buffer this adverse factor? A research note

This research note combines two national Taiwanese data sets to investigate the relationships among low birth weight (LBW) babies, their parents' educational levels, and their future academic outcomes. We find that LBW is negatively correlated with the probability of such children attending college at age 18; however, when both parents are college or high school graduates, such negative effects may be partially offset. We also show that discrimination against daughters occurs, but only for daughters who were LBW babies. Moreover high parental education can buffer the LBW shock only among moderately LBW children (as compared with very LBW children) and full-term LBW children (as compared with preterm LBW children).     

如何实现西部大开发宁夏优先发展的调查分析

面对在西部大开发中所处的劣势地位,宁夏首先要更新观念,创造新优势,解决好人才问题、资金问题、体制创新和科技创新,并重点抓好事关全局的核心问题,以实现“西部大开发,宁夏要争先”的战略目标。     

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

Binary Dynamic Logit for Correlated Ordinal: estimation,application and simulation

We evaluate the estimation performance of the Binary Dynamic Logit model for correlated ordinal variables (BDLCO model), and compare it to GEE and Ordinal Logistic Regression performance in terms of bias and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) via Monte Carlo simulation. Our results indicate that when the proportional-odds assumption does not hold, the proposed BDLCO method is superior to existing models in estimating correlated ordinal data. Moreover, this method is flexible in terms of modeling dependence and allows unequal slopes for each category, and can be used to estimate an apple bloom data set where the proportional-odds assumption is violated. We also provide a function in R to implement BDLCO.     

"雄王"、"雒王"之"雄"、"雒"考辨——从南越"雄鸡"木简谈起

有学者认为,《旧唐书》等文献中的"雄王"是从《水经注》中的"雒王"讹变而来,这种认识是不正确的.本文通过文献学和语言学的分析,认为2005年初广州出土南越木简中"雄鸡"简反映的命名特点与交趾地区"厥气惟雄"的风俗不仅地域上同在南越国境内,而且时代相同,应有紧密联系.南越木简的发现表明,《旧唐书》等文献中"雄王"的写法是正确的.     

论计划生育村民自治

建立健全“依法管理、村(居)民自治、优质服务、政策推动、综合治理”的长效工作机制,是《中共中央国务院关于全面加强人口和计划生育工作统筹解决人口问题的决定》(2006)对我国未来计划生育管理提出的基本要求,也是全国部分地区在人口和计划生育综合改革实践中探索出的一条基本经验。然而,对长效工作机制中的“村民自治”,人们在认识上还存在一些误区,从而导致了工作实践中的一些偏差。本文拟就计划生育村民自治中的几个基本问题谈点意见。1计划生育村民自治的概念村民自治是我国广大人民群众直接行使民主权利的一项基本社会政治制度。“计…     

我国城市化发展的区域差异及协调发展对策

中国城市化发展具有极为显著的区域差异。文章根据多元数据比较系统地阐述了我国城市化发展的省际差异特征,剖析了其形成因素;对我国未来区域城市化的发展趋势及存在的问题进行了前瞻性分析,并有针对性地提出了促进我国区域城市化协调发展的对策与措施。     

从援助型外交走向战略型外交——日本中亚外交政策的演变浅析

从上世纪90年代以来,日本的中亚外交政策发生了显著的变化,已经逐渐从原来的“援助型外交”升级为“战略型外交”。这一转变过程分为三个阶段:“经济援助主导阶段”、“经济援助与战略外交并重阶段”以及“战略外交主导阶段”。相对于时下比较流行的“贸易说”和“能源说”,本文提出了“政治战略说”来理解日本中亚外交政策升级的背后逻辑。并总结了三大具体原因,其中内因为日本对国家政治利益的追求,外因为日美同盟关系的微妙变化以及大国地区外交竞争的推动。