金融周期、金融波动与中国经济增长——基于省际面板门槛模型的研究

本文应用面板门槛模型,研究了2005-2017年间我国31个省（市、自治区）金融波动对经济增长的影响。研究发现,随着金融周期所处阶段的变化,金融波动对经济增长会产生显著的非对称性双重门槛效应,主要体现为如下两点：首先,金融周期处于膨胀期、平稳期和萧条期时金融波动对经济增长会产生负向影响,但从影响系数值的大小来看,处于膨胀期时最大,是后两者的2倍之多,处于平稳期时最小且并不显著;其次,分区域的稳健性检验表明,金融发展水平高的区域双重门槛值出现得早,且两个门槛值间的区间要比金融发展水平低的区域宽28%。这些结论说明,经济增长对于金融波动的容忍弹性会随着金融周期所处的阶段而变化,金融发展水平的提高会放大经济增长对金融波动的容忍区间,但也会加速金融周期处于膨胀期时爆发金融危机的可能性,这使得当前我国存在着进一步发展金融水平和严控金融风险的矛盾,对此本文也提出了相应的政策建议。     

Conjugal intimacy,gender and modernity in contemporary China

The new generation of modernity theorists have forecast the democratization of gender relations within intimate relationships in late‐modern times. Chinese society has undergone rapid and dramatic changes in its unique trajectory of political, social and economic reform. Using China as an example of a region which has been largely ignored in contemporary social theory, this article enters the debate to contest the extent to which conjugal relationships are democratized in line with modernity. We further test the assertion that modern marriages are characterized by increased self‐disclosure and communication between partners. Data from a national survey on Chinese families is analysed in relation to the level of self‐disclosure between husbands and wives; gender division of housework; household decision‐making; and home ownership. We highlight the impact of gender, cohort and location (urban, rural or migrant) on experiences of modernity and draw attention to the material, social and cultural factors which continue to shape conjugal relations in contemporary Chinese society. Based on our findings, we contest the argument that disclosing intimacy between intimate partners is a defining characteristic of modern relationships, and suggest that other social factors may condition degrees of self‐disclosure in marriage. Similarly, we question the extent to which heterosexual conjugal equality is attained: the cultural practices and values of patrilineal family organization, together with material circumstances, continue to influence marital relations in China.     

How publics’ active and passive communicative behaviors affect their tornado responses: An integration of STOPS and SMCC

During imminent threat crises, such as natural disasters, publics have minutes to decide how to respond after receiving a warning. This study advances understanding of publics’ crisis communicative and noncommunicative behaviors in the context of tornadoes through combining and extending two theories: the social-mediated crisis communication (SMCC) model and the situational theory of problem solving (STOPS). Findings from a survey of Southeast U.S. residents (n = 1,585) indicate that STOPS is internally consistent and accurate at measuring its intended outcomes of communicative action in problem solving. However, the STOPS measures do not have a significant relationship with the desirable outcome for imminent threat crisis communication: individuals following government’s protective action guidance about tornadoes. In comparison, the expanded SMCC model predicts individuals’ self-reported compliance. Finally, variables from the SMCC model and tornado-specific variables were integrated into the STOPS model to explain individuals’ communicative engagement. Implications for theory and public relations practice are discussed.     

The Ecology of Activism: Professional Mobilization as a Spatial Process

This article develops an ecological theory that shifts the paradigm of professional mobilization from causes to relational spaces. It analyzes different species of activist professionals by locating them in an ecology of activism and examining how collective action emerges from their boundary work with the ecology's increasing density and consolidation. It empirically grounds the theory by explaining the political activism of Chinese lawyers in the early twenty‐first century and how it led to a government crackdown in 2015. Using interviews, online ethnography, and archival data collected from 2005 to 2017, the research demonstrates that Chinese lawyers’ political mobilization has experienced three stages: (1) vacancy and isolation (2000–2007), (2) spatial consolidation (2008–2011), and (3) boundary work (2011–2015). The study has implications for theories of social space and for understanding professional mobilization in authoritarian contexts and beyond.     

Open Dialogue: Frequently Asked Questions

Open Dialogue is an approach to working with people and their families experiencing psychosocial distress. Interest in Open Dialogue in Australia has been growing recently, raising questions about its adaption and implementation to local contexts. This article is an attempt to answer some of the frequently asked questions we have encountered in training and discussions about Open Dialogue. We attempt to provide responses to questions of how Open Dialogue is different to what is done already, how it fits with current approaches, how you know if you are doing it, whether it is passive or just about doing reflections, issues about including the social network, and concerns about the evidence base. This article aims to present a variety of viewpoints in relation to these questions and to hopefully further discussions on how Open Dialogue can be implemented and adapted to Australian health care and social care contexts.     

论多校区高校财力资源的优化配置

多校区高校是高等教育管理体制改革和结构调整中发展起来的新事物,为我国高等教育快速发展作出了重要贡献.但是,也必须看到:合并、重组之后的新校区建设,使多校区高校在扩大规模、拓展空间的同时背负了沉重的债务;校区多、空间距离分散给资源配置和提高效率带来客观障碍;运行成本增加、经费不足成为学校时刻面临且无法回避的矛盾;提高资金利用效率,优化财力资源配置,化解债务负担成为学校的重要课题.因此,科学编制财务预算、严格预算的执行与控制、加强财务的考核与评估;统一财务领导、明确经济责任、实现会计委派;强化财务风险意识、树立成本意识.是实现多校区高校财力资源优化配置的途径、措施与方法.     

外商直接投资对经济增长的双重效应分析

外商直接投资是一把“双刃剑”,既对经济增长具有重要的正效应,又具有一定的负效应。本文以福建省为例,从福建省利用FDI的现状出发,详细分析了利用FDI带来的正、负两方面的效应,以此来检讨在招商引资工作中存在的问题,并对此提出相应的政策建议。     

高校实行助理班主任工作模式探析

高校实行助理班主任工作模式是有效改进和加强大学生思想政治教育的途径之一。选拔高年级优秀学生担任助理班主任,参与新生教育和管理,有助于新生尽快融入到大学生活,也有助于提高助理班主任的综合素质,还有助于班主任集中精力抓好核心工作。为此应健全助理班主任培养选拔机制、完善考核机制,以使助理班主任与新生共同成长。