Measuring the quality of economic forecasts

Most evaluations of forecasts have hitherto been primarily based on measure of statistical accuracy. Attention is drawn to the need for concentrating instead on the forecast components bearing on managerial decisions and on the economic effects of such decisions. The method suggested highlights the changing locus of the most influential errors over various time horizons. It also takes account of the economic consequences of under-estimates and over-estimates in forecasting, as well as of the penalties of belated correcting actions. Finally, some broader implications of this approach are discussed.     

The Long Goodbye: Women, Companion Animals, and Maternal Loss

Heightened and often anxious attachment to companion animals can be one of the sequela of women's unresolved grief over early maternal loss. Clinical data suggest that, especially among women, the death of pets can reactivate the unfinished mourning over the mother. Drawing on one extensive case study, this paper examines this little explored, but commonly experienced relationship. From the perspectives of attachment theory and feminist therapy, the paper addresses the human-animal bond, gender differences in grief, the long term effects of early maternal loss, later attachment style, and companion animals as internalized parent/child figures. Recommendations for treatment are offered to help women work through both losses.     

Towards Extended Schools? How Education and Other Professionals Understand Community‐Oriented Schooling

The government in England is proposing that every school should offer extended services to children, families and communities. However, in the absence of agreed models of how such community‐oriented schooling should operate, its form will depend on how it is understood by the education professionals and their partners in other agencies who have to make it work in practice. This article draws on data from interviews with over 350 professionals to outline two such understandings. It suggests that they rest on different assumptions about fundamental social and educational issues and argues for a more open debate around these issues. Copyright © 2006 The Author(s). Journal compilation © National Children's Bureau.     

The Gender Structure of the Nursing Hierarchy: The Role of Human Capital

This study investigated the factors contributing to the over‐representation of men in senior positions in nursing. A questionnaire was distributed to a stratified random sample of 1536 registered nurses in New South Wales, Australia. The data were analysed using multiple logistic regression and showed that women's greater likelihood of taking breaks from full‐time employment was the major variable contributing to the gender segmentation of the nursing workforce. This has implications for those working towards ‘family friendly’ workplaces.     

Emergy-based Simulation to Assess Brazil’s Long-term Carrying Capacity: Environment, Electricity and Population

A macroscopic mini-model of Brazil’s electrical generating capacity (BRAZELECTRIX, Brazilian Electricity Matrix) was developed using the Energy Systems Language and simulated with iconographic Extend® software to explore long-term (200 years) population carrying capacity. South American reserves of natural gas (NG) and Brazilian stream hydro-power potential were assumed as the main inputs to electric power production. Energy values (e.g., kWh, joules) for fuels, electricity and environment were transformed to solar emergy (i.e., solar equivalent joules) to simplify cross comparison with a single metric. BRAZELECTRIX was calibrated using a holistic method that used mean component life-times and conservation of material and energy for each individual unit. Validation of BRAZELECTRIX, based on historical data, gave a root mean square error of 8% for hydroelectricity and 28% for natural gas use. Investments in natural gas infrastructure (e.g., contracts, pipelines, processing plants and electric power plants) accelerated Brazil’s expansion of electrical generating capacity for a finite period, allowing the country to reach its renewable (hydro-power only) carrying capacity 100 years sooner than without (2040 vs. 2140). Brazil has a total of 560 zetta-solar equivalent joules per annum (1 Zseja = 1 ×10²¹ sej per year) of stream hydro-power potential; 170 Zseja is currently used for electricity generation. According to BRAZELECTRIX, eventually 390 Zseja will be tapped for hydroelectricity. The standard of living, as measured by annual per capita electrical solar emergy, had risen 680% from 166 tera-solar equivalent joules (Tseja) to 1130 Tseja during the 35 year period following 1965 and was predicted to increase another 75% to its maximum (1973 Tseja) in 2050. By comparison, an urbanizing state of the United States (North Carolina) had an annual per capita electrical solar emergy of 7815 Tseja in 1992, indicating that Brazil could reach a living standard, as measured by per capita electricity usage, equal to one-forth the level of United States. Macroscopic mini-models combined with emergy accounting evaluated long-term paths for Brazil’s electricity supply and related it to natural environment trade-offs to demonstrate how sustainable carrying capacity of a developing nation can be forecast.     

Partners in practice: Developing integrated learning opportunities on the Frontline child and family social work qualifying programme

The Frontline programme is a social work qualifying route, in England, featuring a different approach to curriculum design and delivery. Students are based in groups of 4, learning through practicing social work in a statutory child and family social work setting, alongside a Consultant Social Worker (in the role of practice educator). They are also supported by an Academic Tutor who works in partnership with the Consultant Social Worker to facilitate learning. A weekly “unit meeting” is a foundational aspect of the programme, providing opportunities for in‐depth discussion, teaching, and reflection on practice with families. The authors worked together over the first 2 cohorts of the programme and undertook action research to explore the learning opportunities that arise when academic staff and practitioners work side by side to support student learning in this model. Three broad themes were identified which were considered to be significant in helping students to learn which are explored in the paper:

• Learning through engaging in joint dialogue about practice in a unit meeting
• The influence of relationships on learning in social work
• The importance of a connected model of learning which has practice with children and families at its heart